Old Friends: How's Balogun doing in France?

Ahead of his Emirates return, checking out the American 9's numbers

He’s baaaack…or is he?

Folarin Balogun’s AS Monaco are set to visit Arsenal on Wednesday, but whether the Arsenal academy product plays with them is another question.

Balogun, as you likely remember, was sold for a fee of up to £40m last summer, with a “significant” sell-on clause also tacked on. The move was something of a tacit endorsement of Arsenal’s attacking group as Balogun wanted first-team minutes and Arsenal were unlikely to bump him up in a pecking order that then included Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah. We of course know what’s happened to each of those players since, with Nketiah attracting a very good fee from Crystal Palace and Jesus continuing to struggle with injury and form as he backs up Kai Havertz.

But that’s enough about Arsenal. How about Balogun? With this visit coming up fast, now is as good a time as any to review Balogun’s performance in France.

In short, it’s been a hot-and-cold time in Ligue 1 for Balogun. He ended last campaign with 12 goal involvements (7G, 5A) in about 18.8 90s, which mostly lined up with his underlying expected metrics. Despite that, Balogun’s season was characterized by inconsistency that saw him struggle to unseat Wissam Ben Yedder as primary striker. To illustrate, Balogun scored three goals in a month from mid-September to mid-October, then didn’t score again until November, and then not again until late February. He then registered a brace off the bench in a blowout win over FC Metz in March to end on seven goals.

This season, Balogun was named as a starter for each but one of Monaco’s first seven league games, typically in a front two alongside Breel Embolo, but was a bench-only option in the Champions League group stage. He really seemed to be struggling with his shot but rounded into form around matchweek 5, when he started a run of three consecutive games with goals.

Sadly, he dislocated his shoulder in early October and only recently made his return, even starting in the December 1 loss to Marseille and really struggling for any service in that game. But he has since suffered a setback and continues to feel pain in his shoulder, making his status for Wednesday a significant question mark.

While Balogun’s goal output is pretty solid, and his xG output is even a little better, his time at Monaco can be summed up by a couple of things: poor finishing, and turnovers.

On finishing, his goals per shot has dipped to 0.12, which is below both Nketiah and Jesus. His goals per shot on target is also the lowest of the three at 0.29, about 20% worse than Jesus’s 0.35.

Regarding turnovers, Balogun has either miscontrolled the ball or been dispossessed 155 times in 777 touches at Monaco. When I recently ranked strikers, this number when adjusted per-touch was quite literally one of the worst handful of forwards on a list of nearly 1,000 players. Another bit of context: last season, considered his much worse campaign, Gabriel Jesus racked up 99 miscontrols and dispossessions in 782 touches.

If Adi Hutter keeps up his selection patterns Balogun may not be chosen as a starter in the match in London, even if fit. But there’s certainly hope he will get further opportunities to start as the season goes on. Monaco have been in great form, currently 8th in the Champions League and third in Ligue 1.

That would be valuable for Arsenal, as his sell-on clause could produce valuable funds down the line. As of now, he is not linked with any moves beyond Monaco, nor is he considered especially valuable. Though they’re not the sole authority, Transfermarkt for instance lists his value at €25m, down from the €30m when he was sold.

Of course, we’d love any resurgence to happen after Wednesday. If Balogun scores, particularly from open play and in anything other than an Arsenal win, the fanbase may literally combust.