Porto 1-0 Arsenal: The Debrief
A disappointing night again in the knock out stages
I came into this game full of nervous excitement. This is what all the struggle was for, to get back to this big stage with a chance to put the team in a good position to advance to the quarterfinals and to bury some demons of past failure.
I didn’t expect this to be easy, but I also didn’t expect the team to come out and play one of their worst performances of the year either.
Arsenal are still the favorite to advance here (69% in the betting odds) but they gave themselves a much tougher road to the next round using up most of their margin for error.
Porto 1-0 Arsenal: The Graphics
Porto 1-0 Arsenal: The Debrief
14 - Touches by Arsenal in “Zone 14” the space just in front of the penalty box and central
12 - Touches in the box by Arsenal, the fewest Arsenal have had in a match this season
24 - Touches within 25 yards of goal by Arsenal
6 - Open play passes completed within 25 yards of the goal
There are a lot of things that turned out poor about this match but I think the one that was most concerning for me was that the access into dangerous locations was the biggest red flag.
Even when the team was not quite clicking the ability to get the ball into the final third and then into the areas around the box was still among the elite.
Here that was cut out by Porto’s impressive midblock press. They made it hard for the team to access the space and they were very disciplined in their zonal setup where the rotations among the front line did not move their players to open up pockets to pass through.
41.3% - The percentage of possessions where Arsenal entered the final third against Porto
51% - Arsenal’s average this season for the percentage of possession that enter the final third.
6 - Switches by Arsenal in this match
Doing switches is not typically Arsenal’s strategy in matches, looking to play through rather than over. The six here were the second most that Arsenal have had in a match this year (Fulham home -7) but it looked like this WAS the way to beat Porto here, in my amateur opinion.
Porto was aggressive once the ball got into their half and the space was there to play the diagonal ball over the block, the times Arsenal did do this it was some of the few times that Arsenal had space to attack.
This was also a match where it looked like for the first time in a while the team really missed progression from deep.
Among the back line, Jakub Kiwior led the team in final third entries with 5, with Ben White and Gabriel each having 2, and William Saliba pushed wide and peripheral with just 1.
Porto set out to deny central space and it was mission accomplished for them.
Mikel Arteta will have to come up with a plan for how to adjust to this better.
0 - Shots on target
I have seen lots of people complain about this and it is a bummer but I remain in the camp that I think this is not really a great stat to look at. Shots on target is a noisy stat and it misses context.
What is more concerning is this:
7 - Shots TOTAL, this is tied for the fewest shots Arsenal have in a match in all competitions this season (tied with the Community Shield match)
3 - Shot from Open play, this is the fewest Arsenal have had in a match all season, the previous low was 6 away to Lens.
0.16 - Arsenal’s xG from open play, the previous low was 0.3 against Manchester City in the home win.
The dark arts stifle Arsenal
36 - Fouls in this game combined, the most in a match this season
22 - Fouls committed by Arsenal, this is the most in a match by Arsenal (the previous high was 14) and the most committed by a team in the Champions League.
5 - Fouls by Arsenal from corner kick situations
52 - Minutes of ball-in-play time in this match, this is the second lowest ball-in-play time that Arsenal have had this season (just getting beat out by the match against Brentford)
67 - The average number of minutes of ball-in-play for Arsenal matches this season
Porto clearly came into this match with the goal of disrupting the flow and to muck this game up. They did exactly that.
They got a referee who had a quick whistle and who even by European standards, judged things on a very minimal contact needed for a foul. It was very frustrating for Arsenal and there were absolutley some fouls that I think were in the phantom range but overall it looked to be fairly consistent and Arsenal didn’t adjust at all.
***
All is not lost but this was a pretty major speed bump for Arsenal. Hopefully, Arsenal can right the ship on Saturday.
As the season wore on, I found myself leaning towards you views; not quite a come to Jesus moment, but almost. Still, shots that clear the cross bar like a rugby drop goal drive me crazy (Odegaard comes to mind like no other), especially when so much time in the final third can be wasted.
It's been such a delight to read your essays this past season. I look forward to reading them again in 24/25.
PS: In some way, shape or form, I think you have a book in you.
Shots vs shots on goal is a very mixed bag. First, only a shot on net can score. Second, a shot alone, one that is not on goal, will never go I'm. When I see 20 shots with 6 on net, it seems to me it represents poor shot selection, poor execution and wasted effort; a near miss is as good as a bad miss. A ratio of shots to shots on goal might tell more, or at least give some small measure of continued pressure on defense, however, only shots on net puts more pressure on the keeper than a miss. Its a bit rhetorical, but wouldn't you agree a keeper would rather face a shot than a shot on net? More of a clean sheet probability.