POWER RANKINGS - 2024/25 October Edition

Ranking the big 7 PL clubs based on current/recent form

Doing rankings is a fun exercise. It gets everyone thinking and usually leads to good discussions and arguments about things. Plus it is a great way to go on the record with your opinions on teams.

This will be a ranking of the “Rich 7” (is there a good or better name for these teams?) clubs and potentially 1 other club if they are really of merit to be included, going in reverse order. I will also include if they are up/down/steady from last time I went through the rankings.

This is the first go round for the 2024-25 season so a lot of this is still from the assumptions backed in at the start of the year.

8 - Manchester United

Last: Steady at 8th

I can’t imagine putting another team in this spot at the start of the year. I think Manchester United have done pretty well with their transfer business so far this summer but not so much where I think that they have materially raised their ceiling, rather I think they have cemented their spot on the edge of the top-6.

Looking at the moves they have done so far, I am just not moved.

The start of the season confirms much of what I expected, They are better than last season but because they were SOOOOO bad last season even getting a bit better still puts them at the bottom of this list and very much in the they would be lucky to get into Europe discussion.

What I wrote about Zirkzee I think is good summing up of where things are for them, they have added talent but it has a limited ceiling:

On the plus slide for Manchester United, they are no longer giving up relegation level of shots, the bad news they are still too easy for most teams to play through and giving up too many good chances for the opposition.

3.67 - The number of big chances allowed per match right now in the Premier League. That ranks second to last. It is skewed by the 9 they allowed to Spurs but even before that they were averaging 2.6 per match (and had a couple against Fulham that didn’t result in shots to save them)

I can’t believe Ten Hag made into the summer and had another round of time to commit to buying his players. It could be an expensive and longish road to get this cleaned up for Manchester United.

7 - Newcastle United

Last: Down 1 spot, from 6th

At the start of the season I wanted to pick them to finish 4th and they have really disappointed me.

I think their summer business was pretty bad, the only real plus for them is that they didn’t sell Isak or Bruno but other than that they didn’t do too much to really move the needle on the team.

Lewis Hall was a player that they had last season and was just an obligation this season. Vlachodimos was a PSR swap that looks like a turd of a transfer, he has played 45 minutes of League Cup game so far and is firmly the third choice keeper, that is exactly what you want to spend real money on. William Osula is player I don’t know too much on but he does seem like a prospect at least and I don’t have bad things to say about that.

Just looking at the incomings and that really is no change to the first elven and it was a team that needed some help to push them above the teams they are fighting with.

On the outgoings, they avoided the worst but lost promising young players Elliot Anderson (part of the PSR swap) and Yankuba Minteh (looking bright for Brighton).

To start the season they have been very meh, they have a slightly negative xG difference and slightly positive goal difference in the meh section that teams don’t want to find themselves in.

If I didn’t start with the belief that they are not this bad, I would have put them 8th because on current form that is where they should probably be.

6 - Aston Villa

Last: Down 2 spots, from 4th

Aston Villa have over the last season and a half played at a high level. They have touched some really good form and have points totals that would challenge for top 4 in most seasons. It was enough last year for them to actually finish in 4th and crash the party of the traditional big 6/7.

I think there is some air in the numbers and I don’t fully believe that they are as good as the points totals suggested they are. Looking at the points compared to expected points (it’s an imperfect measure but I think it can help identify things over larger samples) they have been consistently above for their actual points.

For long stretches last season, I was fully on board with the team. They were and did look like a strong team (I did have them ranked 4th here for most of the time). It did hit a major skid at the end of the year when the season got tight and they had to focus more on the first-team in Europe and the business end of the Premier League.

The attacking metrics took a nose dive and the defensive numbers looked pretty bad but they were able to hold off Tottenham for the final Champions League spot.