POWER RANKINGS - December Edition

Ranking the big 7 PL clubs based on current/recent form

Doing rankings is a fun exercise. It gets everyone thinking and usually leads to good discussions and arguments about things. Plus it is a great way to go on the record with your opinions on teams.

This will be a ranking of the “Rich 7” (is there a good or better name for these teams?) clubs and potentially 1 other club if they are really of merit to be included, going in reverse order.

Because this is the second time I am doing this for Cannon Stats, I will also include if they are up/down/steady from last month.

If you want to hear me talk with Clive Palmer about this I also did a podcast with him for Arsenal Vision Patrons.

8 - Manchester United

Last month: Steady at 8th

I don’t think that there is a team that is less a sum of their parts than this Manchester United team right now.

They aren’t overly talented but they have players that should be better than how they are performing right now.

They are 7th in the table but that really flatters them, they have the 12th best expected goals difference and the 12th best goal difference.

They have a couple of good performances but match that with a ton of matches that they play like crap but pull out all three points.

This team is expensive, old, and very poorly put together. I have no idea what Eric Ten Hag’s plan is most games and it looks like neither do his players most of the time.

7 - Tottenham

Last month: Steady at 7th

I do not believe in Tottenham and I have been on this train for a while.

I know the vibes are amazing still at that club but they are still one that when I look at their numbers or watch their matches, they look like a team that is on the edge of Europe and not a team that is in the middle of the top 4 race.

One of the metrics I like to keep an eye on is how teams do compared to playing the same team, at the same stadium last season. It is always hard to look backward and this isn’t perfect but it does come at least somewhat close to apples to apples with teams. Here is how Spurs look right now compared to last year:

Points: +9 (33 vs 24)

xG: +1.9 (29 vs 27.1)

G: +3 (35 vs 32)

xGA: +6.6 (28.2 vs 21.6)

GA: -8 (23 vs 31)

The attack is better but not significantly better, certainly not to the extent that the narrative seems to be pointing towards. The defense is mixed, goals allowed is down but expected goals is up. Last year they had bad luck with teams finishing against them and this year it has flipped to good luck.

Part of that is down to Guglielmo Vicario who has saved the most goals compared to the shots faced but some of that is also just some good fortune with teams spurning the chances presented to them.

They are a team that is pointed in the right direction for the future. They have done magnificently moving on from Harry Kane and I think set themselves up with a good platform but it still feels like a work in progress and I think they will come back to earth finishing outside the Champions League spots.

6 - Chelsea

Last month: Down 2 from 4th

I have wanted to rate Chelsea.

I don’t know why because I loathe them, but I guess I bought into the narrative that because the underlying numbers were there the results should start to match but there hasn’t been nearly as much of a recovery as I would like to see.

To a certain extent the expectation that they would regress towards the numbers has happened, especially in attack:

Sorry the graphic is ugly

They are still below for the season but the gap has narrowed as the season has moved on. What has changed is that the defense, which also looked strong has slipped.

When people were very high on them the underlying numbers pointed to a team with nearly a +1.0 expected goals now that has slipped to +0.5. That’s good and has them 5th but with the gap they have to the teams they are chasing, it is not good enough to make up the ground they have already lost.

5 - Newcastle

Last month: Steady at 5th