Predictions for August and the 2022-23 Season
Going through and making guesses about different topics for the new season.
I have been making predictions monthly (mostly, I skipped last month because there wasn't that much to look into yet) and it is time to do this again.
A reminder, for this I make a prediction and also include my certainty around that actually happening. I keep track of how these work out and it helps to get an understanding of how good my intuition and research do for my prognostication.
My predictions from June:
Arsenal's Net Transfer Spend will have the club spend more on incoming than outgoings: 90% ✔️ (technically not decided but I am giving myself this one)
Arsenal's gross transfer spending will be less than the £150.68m that was reported on TransferMarkt (also using TransferMarkt): 70% ❓
Arsenal's reported transfer income will be more than £28.26m (using TranferMarkt): 85% ❓
Arsenal's reported transfer income will be less than £70m (using TranferMarkt): 75% ❓
Arsenal will sign Gabriel Jesus: 60% ✔️
Arsenal will sign Youri Tielemans: 70% ❓
William Saliba does not agree to a new contract by the start of the new season: 55% ❓
Bukayo Saka signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 80% ❓ (I am a little worried this won't be wrapped before the season starts but still feel confident it will happen)
Granit Xhaka leaves by the end of the transfer window: 60% ❓
Other Guesses that now have an answer
Alexandre Lacazette does NOT resign with Arsenal in the summer: 75% ✔️
Antonio Conte will start the 2022/23 season as Tottenham's coach: 55% ✔️ (again technically not decided but the season starts in less than a week and he is the coach with no reports that there will be a sudden change of heart)
Overall tracking:
Most of my June predictions are still pending waiting on the end of the transfer window. I will say that I am pleasantly surprised that William Saliba looks to have been a part of the team and that the 85% mark I put on him not being with the team at the start of the season looks to have been wrong.
Overall I still have a strong track record.
I made 12 guesses that were 90%+, and all 12 happened. 100% overall
I made 5 guesses that were between 80% and 89%, and 4 happened. 80% overall
I made 7 guesses that were between 70% and 79%, and 5 happened. 71% overall
I made 14 guesses that were between 60% and 69%, and 9 happened. 64% overall
I made 9 guesses that were between 51% and 59%, and 5 happened. 56% overall
August Predictions:
Match Predictions:
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, Arsenal will win: 55%
Arsenal vs Leicester City, Arsenal will win: 60%
Bournemouth vs Arsenal: Arsenal will win: 70%
Arsenal vs Fulham: Arsenal will win: 70%
Arsenal vs Aston Villa, Arsenal will win: 60%
Arsenal will win 10 or more points in August: 70%
Arsenal will not lose in August: 55%
Transfer Market Predictions:
Arsenal will have a top 3 total expenditure on transfer fees: 75%
Arsenal will sign or loan another attacking player: 60%
Arsenal will sign or loan another midfield player: 55%
One of Nicolas Pepe, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Héctor Bellerín, or Reiss Nelson, will still be with Arsenal after the transfer window closes: 60%
Season Predictions:
Manchester City will win the Premier League: 65%
Arsenal will improve on their 69 points from last season: 65%
Arsenal will make the Champions League: 51%
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest will BOTH be relegated: 75%
Manchester United will finish 6th or worse: 65%
Newcastle will finish 10th or better: 55%