Predictions for Feb and beyond

People love to make statements about what they think will and should happen. One of the things that they don't do is actually put any sort of confidence intervals around it so that you can revisit it and see how you have done. I am not blaming anyone because hey I haven't done it either.

It is January of a new year and it would be good to go and make some predictions about what I think holds for Arsenal and the Premier League.

These are my predictions and my confidence in them.

Transfer window

Arsenal sign an attacking player on a permanent deal: 25%

Arsenal sign a midfield player on a permanent deal: 10%

Arsenal will not sign a defensive player on a permanent deal: 99%

Arsenal sign an attacking player on a loan deal: 75%

Arsenal sign a midfield player on a loan deal: 10%

Arsenal will not sign a defensive player on a loan deal: 90%

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will not be at the club after the transfer window closes: 80%

There will not be any other outgoing moves this window: 90%

Premier League Finish

Arsenal will finish in the top 4: 25%

Arsenal will finish in the top 6: 85%

Arsenal will finish with more than 61 points: 90%

Arsenal will finish with more than 65 points: 60%

Arsenal will finish with 70 or more points: 25%

Arsenal will finish above Tottenham: 45%

Manchester City will win the League: 95%

Newcastle will be relegated: 65%

Everton will be relegated: 15%

February Fixtures

None of the fixtures will be postponed due to COVID: 90%

Wolves vs Arsenal Feb 10, Arsenal will win: 55%

Arsenal vs Brentford Feb 19, Arsenal will win: 65%

Arsenal will get 5 or more points from these fixtures: 90%

That will due for today, we will look at doing this again next month and see how things go.