Predictions for June 2025 and beyond

Making educated guesses about the future.

AI Image from Grok, I do not have the ability to grow a beard like that

I used to do this back in 2022 and it was a fun thing but I sort of dropped it and I haven’t come back to it and I want to change that by making some predictions again.

The idea of these is that I am going to give a range for what I think the likely hood of the outcome for something is, in general I want to try and make the prediction so that it is worded to be in the 51% and up to 100%, so for example instead of saying something will happen with a 20% certainty I would word that as something will NOT happen with 80% certainty.

I will look at trying to do this monthly, I will open up the comments so feel free to drop things you want me to give me thoughts on for future months.

June 2025 Predictions:

Let’s lean heavy into the transfer related ones this month:

High level transfer figures for Arsenal:

Arsenal will have a positive Net Transfer Spend for the summer of 2025 window: 99%

Arsenal's gross transfer spending will be more than the €200m at the conclusion of the summer transfer window (using reported fees from transfermarkt.co.uk): 70%

Arsenal's reported transfer income will be more than €50m: 75%

Arsenal's reported transfer income will be less than €75m: 75%

Arsenal will make 3 signings with a fee of €50m or higher: 90%

I think it will be a pretty big summer from Arsenal with a net spend that pushes past the €150m mark.

Individual Player Signing Predications:

Arsenal will sign Matin Zubimendi: 95%

Matin Zubimendi will be part of Arsenal’s pre-season squad: 85%

Arsenal will NOT sign another midfielder: 65%

Arsenal will sign Benjamin Sesko: 70%

Arsenal will NOT sign Viktor Gyokeres: 75%

Arsenal will NOT sign Ollie Watkins: 85%

Arsenal will sign Rodrygo from Real Madrid: 55%

Arsenal sign TWO players that would be considered attackers (Strikers, Attacking Midfield or Wingers): 85%

Arsenal sign THREE players that would be considered attackers (Strikers, Attacking Midfield or Wingers): 55%

Arsenal sign FIVE or more first team players in the summer window: 65%

One of Trossard or Martinelli leaves by the end of the transfer window: 60%

I have pretty high confidence about Zubimendi and Sesko, outside of that my certainty drops quite a bit. Let me know for July if there are any particular players that I should add when we get there.

Contract Renewals:

Thomas Partey signs to a new contract by the start of the new season: 70%

William Saliba signs to a new contract by the start of the new season: 55%

William Saliba signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 80%

Bukayo Saka signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 65%

Bukayo Saka signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 95%

Myles Lewis-Skelly signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 80%

Myles Lewis-Skelly signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 95%

Ethan Nwaneri signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 60%

Ethan Nwaneri signs to a new contract by December 31, 2025: 90%

Contract renewals are a bit tough but I do think Arsenal will get most of these done, even if not all of them are by the start of the season.

Club World Cup

PSG Win the Club World Cup: 30% (it’s too hard to make this a 50% or more type)

A European Team wins the Club World Cup: 80%

That’s a good start for trying to get these updated, let me know what more you want to give my educated gut feel estimate on that is Soccer related.

Overall Prediction Tracking:

These are the results from when I started but it is a good baseline to start off of.

I made 13 guesses that were 90%+, and all 13 happened. 100% overall

I made 7 guesses that were between 80% and 89%, and 5 happened. 71% overall

I made 10 guesses that were between 70% and 79%, and 67 happened. 70% overall

I made 15 guesses that were between 60% and 69%, and 10 happened. 67% overall

I made 10 guesses that were between 51% and 59%, and 5 happened. 50% overall

Overall before I stopped doing this I had made 55guesses, with 40 happening as I predicted. The average odds I have given these guesses is 72% and I have been right 73% of the time.

My calibration on my guesses before I stopped turned out to be pretty good, hopefully I can keep it going.