Predictions for June and beyond
It is time to make some guesses again.
May Recap
West Ham vs Arsenal May 1st, Arsenal will win: 55% ✔️
Arsenal vs Leeds United May 8th, Arsenal will win: 65% ✔️
Tottenham vs Arsenal May 12th, Arsenal will get at least a win or draw: 55% ❌
The North London Derby match will be miserable and nervy until the final whistle: 95% (I don't really know how to measure it but I will use my best judgment) ❌(I am giving myself a loss on this one, the red card and early second goal meant this wasn't nervy, it was miserable tho. I should get half a point.
Newcastle Utd vs Arsenal May 16th, Arsenal will get at least a win or draw: 55% (I think it could be a trap game) ❌
Arsenal vs Everton May 22nd, Arsenal will get at least a win or draw: 85% ✔️
Arsenal will get more 10 or more points in May: 60% ❌
Arsenal will finish in the top 4: 65% ❌
Arsenal will finish with more than 65 points: 85% ✔️
Arsenal will finish above Tottenham: 60% ❌
Manchester City will win the League: 75% ✔️
Liverpool will win the Champions League: 60% ❌
Everton will be relegated: 60% ❌
Bukayo Saka finishes the season with 14 or more League goals: 65% ❌
Other Guesses that now have an answer
From April:
Arsenal will finish in the top 4: 65% ❌
Arsenal will finish with more than 65 points: 80% ✔️
Arsenal will finish above Tottenham: 60% ❌
Manchester City will win the League: 60% ✔️
Newcastle will NOT be relegated: 95% ✔️
Everton will be relegated: 55% ❌
Erling Haaland does NOT sign with Arsenal in the summer: 99% ✔️ (remember the brief moment when some people convinced themselves that this wasn't more than a dream)
Still Pending
Alexandre Lacazette does NOT resign with Arsenal in the summer: 75%
Antonio Conte will start the 2022/23 season as Tottenham's coach: 55%
William Saliba will NOT remain on the Arsenal roster after the summer transfer window closes: 85%
Nicolas Pepe will NOT remain on the Arsenal roster after the summer transfer window closes: 90%
Overall tracking:
These will be the tracking of things that have had a result:
I made 11 guesses that were 90%+, and all 11 happened. 100% overall
I made 4 guesses that were between 80% and 89%, and 4 happened. 100% overall
I made 6 guesses that were between 70% and 79%, and 6 happened. 67% overall
I made 13 guesses that were between 60% and 69%, and 4 happened. 62% overall
I made 8 guesses that were between 51% and 59%, and 4 happened. 50% overall
After a very hot run early, where everything I predicted came true I have come back closer to my own expected odds. Overall I have made 42 guesses, with 31 happening. The average odds I have given these guesses is 72% and I have been right 74% of the time.
June Predictions:
I think that these will probably be transfer-focused because that is what is happening now, which probably means there won't be a lot of results for a while.
Arsenal's Net Transfer Spend will have the club spend more on incoming than outgoings: 90%
Arsenal's gross transfer spending will be less than the £150.68m that was reported on TransferMarkt (also using TransferMarkt): 70%
Arsenal's reported transfer income will be more than £28.26m (using TranferMarkt): 85%
Arsenal's reported transfer income will be less than £70m (using TranferMarkt): 75%
Arsenal will sign Gabriel Jesus: 60%
Arsenal will sign Youri Tielemans: 70%
William Saliba does not agree to a new contract by the start of the new season: 55%
Bukayo Saka signs a new contract by the start of the new season: 80%
Granit Xhaka leaves by the end of the transfer window: 60%