Premier League 2025/26 - Round 1
Running the simulation and the odds for a new season
I am getting this out a bit later than I’d normally like to have these but there is a lot going on here as the season kicks off.
In this newsletter I will go through my simulation and compare it against the betting odds (I am going to use William Hill Nevada, it is not sponsored it is just convenient for me and if I do choose to bet where I would actually place it most likely). I will also take a look at what the Opta “supercomputer” spits out.
I am not a massive fan of the Opta model, and I don’t think that it performs all that well and it would make me feel better to see if my decidedly not supercomputer is able to do better than it does this season.
If you haven’t seen it, here is a bit more on what goes into my simulation model.
I have not really done too many changes since I wrote this up (really the only change is the addition of a simple adjustment for injury, it takes the transfer market value of the players out compared to a team’s overall transfer market value and adjusts the team rating accordingly) and I have made zero changes from last season.
I think that overall, the model has performed well and while there is room to increase accuracy, I have not felt that it was worth the time to do them compared to other projects that I have taken on.
To set the starting point, here are the current team ratings for the Premier League.
There is a clear top three, there is Chelsea and Newcastle (I am a bit dubious here on the team, but they finished strong) and then the rest. My biggest disagreements with the ratings are that even though I am high on Leeds, I am not they are the 14th best team high on them, I do not buy Manchester United (they get a big boost from the wage bill regression at the start of the season), Bournemouth and Brentford could be lower after having their teams raided.
Match Odds
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Liverpool: Scott - 67.1%, Betting - 71.8%, Opta - 69.4%
Draw: Scott - 18.2%, Betting - 17.1%, Opta - 16.9%
Bournemouth: Scott - 14.8%, Betting - 11.1%, Opta - 13.7%
The consensus here is Liverpool, my model sees some value backing Bournemouth here. Bournemouth +1.5 looks potentially tasty here. Bournemouth have lost a lot in defense but retained their key attackers, Liverpool against a transition team like Bournemouth while they are still figuring things out?
I think I have talked myself into that one.
Bournemouth +1.5
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Utd
Aston Villa: Scott - 43.4%, Betting - 43.1% Opta - 42.6%
Draw: Scott - 24.7%, Betting - 26.3% Opta - 25.1%
Newcastle Utd: Scott - 31.9%, Betting - 30.6% Opta - 32.3%
I don’t see a ton of value here. I don’t know what either of these teams will look like and I don’t have enough trust to pull the trigger on any of these, my model sees no value on any of the bets here.
Sunderland vs West Ham
Sunderland: Scott - 22.7%, Betting - 29.5% Opta - 30.3%
Draw: Scott - 28.5%, Betting - 28.6% Opta - 26.4%
West Ham: Scott - 48.8%, Betting - 41.9% Opta - 43.3%
My model would say back West Ham here, but I am going to sit this one out. I need to see a bit more West Ham before I’d be willing to put money behind them. I think that they might be a team where my opinion shifts heavily negative on them quickly if they struggle.
Tottenham vs Burnley
Tottenham: Scott - 49.8%, Betting - 68.4% Opta - 66.1%
Draw: Scott - 25.3%, Betting - 20.5% Opta - 19.4%
Burnley: Scott - 24.9%, Betting - 11.1% Opta - 14.5%
My model likes Burnley more than I do. I am staying away from the promoted teams however early, not trusting how the translation works going from the Championship to the Premier League. The consensus view on Burnley is that they are the worst of the three promoted teams and that is enough to scare me away from backing this without having done a ton of research into them.
Brighton vs Fulham
Brighton: Scott - 43.3%, Betting - 49.2% Opta - 49.1%
Draw: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 26.1% Opta - 24.5%
Fulham: Scott - 30.1%, Betting - 24.7% Opta - 26.4%
I agree with my model here, being a bit more skeptical on Brighton than the betting odds and Opta here. I kind of also like Fulham, they haven’t had an exciting summer but they have kept their core together and it is in a good age to produce at a high level.
I can take Fulham +0.5 at 1.87 and I think that is a plus EV bet where the implied odds are 53% and my odds have it nearly 57%.
Fulham +0.5
Wolves vs Manchester City
Wolves: Scott - 20.5%, Betting - 14.5% Opta - 16.6%
Draw: Scott - 22.9%, Betting - 20.5% Opta - 21.2%
Manchester City: Scott - 56.6%, Betting - 65.0% Opta - 62.2%
I think that there might value fading Manchester City early this season, they are highly thought of and I think that the combination of a late pre-season due to the Club World Cup, no Rodri for the first few, and Pep needing to figure things out would have them not firing on all cylinders.
The problem is here is that I also don’t trust Wolves. My model says this is a plus EV bet but I want to wait and see on this one.
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 41.0%, Betting - 43.8% Opta - 45.5%
Draw: Scott - 28.6%, Betting - 28.5% Opta - 26%
Brentford: Scott - 30.5%, Betting - 27.7% Opta - 28.5%
My model would ever so slightly say back Brentford here but it is not strong enough, nor is my conviction in either of these teams to have a strong read into the game. There is too much churn on Brentford, I am down on Forest but I think that will show up more when they have to start contending with the Europa League.
I am interested in the match but staying away.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Chelsea: Scott - 52.0%, Betting - 58.5% Opta - 57.3%
Draw: Scott - 23.5%, Betting - 23.5% Opta - 21.8%
Crystal Palace: Scott - 24.5%, Betting - 17.9% Opta - 20.9%
Crystal Palace haven’t lost any of their major players yet, they were very strong at the end of last season and had a good outing against Liverpool. Chelsea put together a strong Club World Cup but they also were just pretty good at the end of last season.
I think Chelsea are the 4th best team but perhaps at a weaker spot than the market does.
Crystal Palace at +0.5 is 2.25 and that is a 44% expected, my model would say win + draw is 47%. That’s not a massive misprice but it is plus EV. It would also be fun to be rooting for Chelsea to not win so I am going to go for it here.
Crystal Palace +0.5
Manchester Utd vs Arsenal
Manchester Utd: Scott - 24.3%, Betting - 24.8% Opta - 28.3%
Draw: Scott - 22.6%, Betting - 26.9% Opta - 25.4%
Arsenal: Scott - 53.0%, Betting - 48.3% Opta - 46.3%
It’s crazy to me how high so many people are on Manchester United because I just do not see it. This fixture scares me because Arsenal have never played especially well at Old Trafford but on paper, I don’t think that this is particularly close.
In the time that I have been writing this article, the line has moved going from 1.95 to 1.87 and with it that has put the betting odds in line with my view and that means I am not betting this one.
Leeds United vs Everton
Leeds United: Scott - 29.8%, Betting - 39.1% Opta - 40.1%
Draw: Scott - 25.8%, Betting - 28.5% Opta - 26.6%
Everton: Scott - 44.4%, Betting - 32.4% Opta - 33.6%
I am shocked by this line.
I think Everton have become quite competent under David Moyes and they are playing a promoted team. It is a Monday night away, Leeds did have a very strong record at home and excellent numbers in the Championship but to be favorite here?
I am high on them (my model thinks they are 14th best!) but not that high.
I can get Everton +0.5 at 1.59 here, that is 63% while my already juiced for Leeds model sees it as 70%. I was already wanting to discount the model output on Leeds early until I saw more of them, so this does push me towards Everton here. It is almost like a what is the catch here situation? What does everyone else see that I am missing?
Everton +0.5
Here is my bets for Round 1:
Bournemouth +1.5
Fulham +0.5
Crystal Palace +0.5
Everton +0.5
I have gone heavy towards road underdogs here and that is not always the most fun position to be in but I do feel pretty good about the picks here. Let’s see how I do this season.