Life has gotten in the way the last several weeks so I have had to make the tough choice on what things to focus on and unfortunately this was something that was down the list of priorities.
I have some time this week so I am coming back to it.
When we last updated, I had done bets through round 5 of the Premier League and the two wins I got there brought me ever so slightly positive on the season (I have wagered 14.5 units and have a +3.6% ROI)
We are also getting into a part of the season where there are enough matches played to start looking at how the model is performing compared to the actual results.
I am very pleased with how this is performing overall so far this season and I continue to be in the situation where I probably could spend more time trying to get a bit more accurate but the time spent working on that probably isn’t worth it given I really just want these to be in the overall ballpark for the match odds.
I will post these updates periodically (or as requested) to see how they go as the season progresses.
As always, the odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. This is not sponsored, I don’t have any affiliate deal, nor do I really endorse them; it is just the most convenient option for me.
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Match Odds
One thing you might notice here is that the graphics have been updated, for the longest time I had been using stuff that I had made years ago in excel (where the simulation model still lives lol, but again not worth the time to re-write it) and I had enough of looking at them.
Hopefully you like the changes, it matches the overall look and feel of the other graphics I make and that makes me not get twitchy and obsessive.
Nott’ham Forest vs Manchester Utd
Nott’ham Forest: Scott - 34.0%, Betting - 28.7%, Opta - 38.1%
Draw: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 26.3%, Opta - 26.5%
Manchester Utd: Scott - 39.4%, Betting - 45.1%, Opta - 35.4%
Manchester United come into this match as one of the in-form teams, and Forest come into this as one of the least in-form teams. When you get these types of matches, it is often times a chance to do a zag against the consensus.
That is what my model is suggesting here, with it giving a pretty strong take Forest pick here.
I have to say, I can see why that might be a good thing to back here. Manchester United have been good creating volume chances, but they don’t have a midfield that has been able to stop teams.
Here they will face the situation where they will face a tough midblock and counter team, and I think that has been the type of team that has caused them the most issues this season.
Nottingham Forest at +0.5 is 1.74 (implied 57%) and I have the win draw odds at 61% making this a plus EV bet and I am going to go with it.
Nottingham Forest +0.5
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Crystal Palace: Scott - 44.6%, Betting - 48.3%, Opta - 50.3%
Draw: Scott - 26.0%, Betting - 26.9%, Opta - 25.1%
Brentford: Scott - 29.4%, Betting - 24.8%, Opta - 24.6%
My model would say to take Brentford here but I still have some scars from betting on Brentford early in the season that makes me not want to go with them yet. I also have been very impressed with Crystal Palace and I think that my model being a bit slow to adjust to the current season would make this a potentially bad decision.
No bet.
Burnley vs Arsenal
Burnley: Scott - 10.2%, Betting - 7.2%, Opta - 13.4%
Draw: Scott - 18.4%, Betting - 18.0%, Opta - 16.6%
Arsenal: Scott - 71.4%, Betting - 74.8%, Opta - 70.0%
Arsenal are rolling and the odds really reflect this with Arsenal made the biggest favorites of the weekend.
My model would say that it would be worth it to take the flyer on the unlikely Burnley win, but I am not doing that right now.
No bets.
Fulham vs Wolves
Fulham: Scott - 39.5%, Betting - 51.7%, Opta - 54.7%
Draw: Scott - 30.8%, Betting - 27.8%, Opta - 23.3%
Wolves: Scott - 29.7%, Betting - 20.5%, Opta - 22.0%
On the current season, Fulham have not been significantly better than Wolves. They come into the season where they look like they should be, but it has not shown up in the early performances.
In fact, looking at the weighted team ratings from just this season, Wolves are ever so slightly ahead.
I am not bold enough to back the win here for Wolves, but I do like the implied 51% odds that this is a Wolves win or draw (my model puts it just under 61%). This is the biggest divergence from my model and the betting odds of the weekend and if I believe in my model at all, I have to back it here.
Wolves +0.5
Brighton vs Leeds United
Brighton: Scott - 49.0%, Betting - 50.5%, Opta - 66.3%
Draw: Scott - 27.0%, Betting - 27.0%, Opta - 18.4%
Leeds United: Scott - 24.1%, Betting - 22.5%, Opta - 15.3%
I think that this is pretty fairly priced, and I don’t really see anything here that would say bet either way. I am a bit surprised how big of favorites Opta have Brighton here, they would be very strongly backing the home team.
Tottenham vs Chelsea
Tottenham: Scott - 34.7%, Betting - 35.5%, Opta - 33.9%
Draw: Scott - 24.9%, Betting - 26.9%, Opta - 25.7%
Chelsea: Scott - 40.4%, Betting - 37.6%, Opta - 40.4%
This is a match that I hope to go meet up with some other locals and watch together in real life after I get my Arsenal analysis up.
It would be fun to have a bit of an extra rooting interest here.
My model likes the away team in this derby, and I think I agree with it but I am not super strong with this opinion.
Chelsea remain a tough team to try and get a feel for how good they actually are. They lost and played pretty poorly last weekend against Sunderland. They have a big win against West Ham that gives their numbers a boost. Looking at how they have played with the game close and they are very much in the group where things are very meh.
The positive here for this match, is that Spurs have been even more meh. I guess you could talk yourselves into that their set up makes them tough against teams that are better than them, but they just haven’t really been good at all so being a bit better against a team that is better than you isn’t all that comforting.
It is not a massive edge, but the model does say go with Chelsea to win. I am not super confident on this one, but I am going to back that.
Chelsea to win.
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Liverpool: Scott - 59.8%, Betting - 57.9%, Opta - 56.9%
Draw: Scott - 21.1%, Betting - 22.5%, Opta - 22.3%
Aston Villa: Scott - 19.1%, Betting - 19.7%, Opta - 20.8%
I am very interested in this match; it is again a situation of teams in the opposite directions for form.
Aston Villa started the season off in the gutter but have bounced back to win 4 in a row in the Premier League and have bounced back up the table. Liverpool did the opposite starting off on fire but have lost four in a row in the Premier League. This has left them both on 15 points and with Liverpool just ahead with a +2 goal difference compared to a +1 for Aston Villa.
Looking at how the team’s have played over the last four, the style of the matches is significantly different (the Villa matches haven’t featured many chances, and the Liverpool matches are nothing but chances) but it’s a funny one that comes out with Aston Villa +0.1 on xG difference and Liverpool at +0.3 on xG difference
The pricing on Liverpool here is just close enough to where I think the odds should be that I don’t think that this is a +EV bet but I do think that it is one where being cold and calculating I would be leaning.
No bet.
West Ham vs Newcastle Utd
West Ham: Scott - 21.2%, Betting - 17.9%, Opta - 25.3%
Draw: Scott - 25.4%, Betting - 23.5%, Opta - 23.2%
Newcastle Utd: Scott - 53.5%, Betting - 58.5%, Opta - 51.5%
My model would say back West Ham here, but man are they a bad team and that sounds like a form of torture that should be outlawed.
William Hill is only giving me a +0.5 on West Ham on the spread bets and I don’t want to try and see if they can hold on for a draw, if it had been +1 or more I would have looked harder at this.
No bet.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Manchester City: Scott - 65.0%, Betting - 62.9%, Opta - 61.5%
Draw: Scott - 18.7%, Betting - 21.4%, Opta - 20.3%
Bournemouth: Scott - 16.4%, Betting - 15.7%, Opta - 18.2%
It’s a short slate of matches Sunday and this will be far the more interesting of the two and the one that will have my attention.
I don’t see any bets here that I think make sense with the odds very much in line with the model and my own feel for the match.
That being said, I think that Bournemouth potentially are the type of team that can and maybe will cause Manchester City problems. They can disrupt the midfield and attack at speed, that can mean that they have some goals in them. Manchester City have Haaland and that basically means they start with a goal. It should be a fun one, and I hope to learn a bit more about how good Manchester City are outside of Haaland here.
No bets.
Sunderland vs Everton
Sunderland: Scott - 28.2%, Betting - 33.7%, Opta - 32.2%
Draw: Scott - 31.2%, Betting - 31.4%, Opta - 25.4%
Everton: Scott - 40.6%, Betting - 34.9%, Opta - 42.4%
No team in the Premier League is over performing their expected points by a larger margin than Sunderland.
They have five wins this season and they have a combined xG difference in those matches of just +0.4.
They have two draws and in those matches it has been a combined xG difference of -1.0.
I want to dig into this a bit more next week ahead of them playing against Arsenal but I have to admit right now that I am not a believer in what they are doing as being something that we should expect to continue.
All that being said, I am perhaps too chicken to bet on this right now given that Sunderland actually look pretty good at home and Everton have not been good away. It is the Monday match and I will be watching to get a good view of them.
No bet.
Here are my bets for Round 10:
Nottingham Forest +0.5
Wolves +0.5
Chelsea to win