We are back for another round of Premier League matches.
Last week I went 2/3 and won the bigger odds bet I made backing Chelsea to win. I also felt pretty smart seeing Nottingham Forest play Manchester United tough and maybe even feel a bit unfortunate (not that it mattered to my bet) to not win that one.
That puts me exactly at 50% for my bets this year and up +1.8 units (10% ROI).
This was a tough week where it doesn’t seem like the odds are diverging much from how I see the matches. Somehow, I still found three bets to make.
As always, the odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. This is not sponsored, I don’t have any affiliate deal, nor do I really endorse them; it is just the most convenient option for me.
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Match Odds
Tottenham vs Manchester Utd
Tottenham: Scott - 36.9%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 47.5%
Draw: Scott - 25.3%, Betting - 27.6%, Opta - 26.1%
Manchester Utd: Scott - 37.7%, Betting - 37.6%, Opta - 26.4%
I know Spurs won big on the midweek but we saw what they did against Chelsea right?
Just 3 total shots and just 1 shot in the second half chasing the game. At home.
Spurs are the team that has the most air in their numbers so far this season, on the underlying numbers they have not made meaningful strides here since last season. I am still a bit worried about Manchester United trying to break them down and not leaving themselves open but it’s Spurs.
I am going to be a bit bold here and take Manchester United to win outright.
Manchester United to win.
West Ham vs Burnley
West Ham: Scott - 43.3%, Betting - 48.5%, Opta - 47.9%
Draw: Scott - 29.7%, Betting - 27.8%, Opta - 26.0%
Burnley: Scott - 27.0%, Betting - 23.7%, Opta - 26.1%
No way will I be doing anything with these two bad teams. This should probably be closer to a 40-30-30 type in my mind but I don’t know if I truly believe that enough to back Burnley away.
No bets.
Everton vs Fulham
Everton: Scott - 37.8%, Betting - 42.8%, Opta - 45.8%
Draw: Scott - 30.7%, Betting - 29.4%, Opta - 26.8%
Fulham: Scott - 31.5%, Betting - 27.7%, Opta - 27.4%
I don’t believe in Fulham at all. I know they won last week but I still don’t know that they are actually more than just meh team that is good enough to survive.
These two teams are very evenly matched and that really make it feel like an anything can happen game and the odds are fairly reflective of that but maybe slightly too much in Everton’s favor here.
Because I want to have some action every week, I am going to trust the model here that the Fulahm +0.5 is actually a +EV move. They are offering it at 1.71 and that is below what my model thinks should be.
Fulahm +0.5
Sunderland vs Arsenal
Sunderland: Scott - 10.9%, Betting - 11.1%, Opta - 13.5%
Draw: Scott - 20.9%, Betting - 21.5%, Opta - 16.7%
Arsenal: Scott - 68.2%, Betting - 67.4%, Opta - 69.8%
I went deep on this match already, so I don’t need to do too much more here.
If Arsenal were a bit healthier… I’d really like to bet on them but I unfortunately am a bit scared that Sunderland will be able to clog things up just enough and threaten the draw that the big odds of an Arsenal win aren’t worth it.
No bets.
Chelsea vs Wolves
Chelsea: Scott - 61.1%, Betting - 69.3%, Opta - 73.2%
Draw: Scott - 22.6%, Betting - 19.6%, Opta - 15.5%
Wolves: Scott - 16.3%, Betting - 11.1%, Opta - 11.3%
I backed Wolves last week and it turned out very poorly. My model would say back them again but that seems frankly dumb.
I think that there is a good chance that this is a team where the bottom falls out for them.
That being said, I don’t know if I trust Chelsea enough here to back them. They curb stomped Spurs but then went and looked like crap in the Champions League. They are still a mess without Palmer.
No bet here.
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
Crystal Palace: Scott - 45.0%, Betting - 41.9%, Opta - 48.7%
Draw: Scott - 25.0%, Betting - 27.7%, Opta - 25.7%
Brighton: Scott - 30.0%, Betting - 30.4%, Opta - 25.6%
This is another match where the betting odds are seeing things very similar to me. My model would have the slightest of leans towards Crystal Palace but coming off of a Europa League Thursday match, I don’t think I have the guts to back a tiny edge.
No bets.
Nott’ham Forest vs Leeds United
Nott’ham Forest: Scott - 44.0%, Betting - 41.9%, Opta - 50.9%
Draw: Scott - 29.5%, Betting - 29.5%, Opta - 24.9%
Leeds United: Scott - 26.5%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 24.2%
I think that this is still a stay away match up.
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
Aston Villa: Scott - 44.9%, Betting - 41.0%, Opta - 49.9%
Draw: Scott - 25.8%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 25.3%
Bournemouth: Scott - 29.3%, Betting - 30.4%, Opta - 24.8%
This is another close one and an area where my model’s skepticism of Bournemouth would push me to go against them.
This isn’t a strong lean, but my model does see value to go with Aston Villa outright to win.
I just can’t help but find myself so unconvinced by Aston Villa this season. They have just been a very meh team. On this season only they are the 16th best team in the League, if we strip out and only look at xG they are closer to relegation level.
They don’t even have the same big home/road splits where you could feel a bit more confident about them at Villa Park.
No bets.
Brentford vs Newcastle Utd
Brentford: Scott - 36.8%, Betting - 33.7%, Opta - 37.1%
Draw: Scott - 26.0%, Betting - 27.8%, Opta - 26.3%
Newcastle Utd: Scott - 37.2%, Betting - 38.5%, Opta - 36.6%
Newcastle have been a team that the numbers have liked this season; they have just been one of the bigger underperformers on the actual numbers compared to expected.
I am just not sold on them still and I have them slipping down my rankings here after what has just been some rather meh performances.
They won in the Champions League, but I am still not sure it was all that impressive.
After some early burns from Brentford, I am ready to go back to them and get hurt again. The +0.5 looks like a very positive EV bet at 1.63 and I am going to go with it,
Brentford +0.5
Manchester City vs Liverpool
Manchester City: Scott - 51.7%, Betting - 49.2%, Opta - 45.4%
Draw: Scott - 20.2%, Betting - 24.7%, Opta - 26.9%
Liverpool: Scott - 28.1%, Betting - 26.1%, Opta - 27.7%
This is a tough one because there are no real plus expected value plays here. The odds from the bookmakers are basically in line with what I have, especially because they get to cheat and don’t have to have their numbers add up to 100%.
My gut would say go with City here but I don’t have a strong enough feeling to back that. I’d be happy as an Arsenal fan if they drew and neither team got 3 points and the feeling of a big win.
Here are my bets for Round 1:
Manchester United to win.
Fulahm +0.5
Brentford +0.5