Premier League 2025/26 - Round 3
Running the simulation and the odds
I missed last week with the unexpected and fast moving transfer of Eberechi Eze taking my time away from being able to look deeper at the odds.
I am back this week, and it is an interesting slate of matches and one where it is still tough to get a good read on a lot of these teams in the middle of the table. It does seem like for lots of teams they are tightly bunched right now and on any given day anyone can beat the other.
My picks for round 1 were a push going 2/4 but ultimately ending up slightly profitable.
Bournemouth +1.5, was a tough beat after they came back from 2 goals down to tie it up but gave up a late Salah goal to give me a loss.
Fulham +0.5, this was a fortunate win and balances things out a bit for the Bournemouth loss. Fulham were not great here but got the late equalizer to give me the win.
Crystal Palace +0.5, I took a bit of a gamble here that they still would have Eze in the team and that happened in this match. They played well against Chelsea, really limiting what they could create and could have even won it had their free kick goal stood.
Everton +0.5, I had hoped Everton would be able to look stronger here as the established PL team. They did not and while it took a handball penalty that I did not agree with, they would have been lucky to draw this match regardless.
The odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. There is no sponsorship or anything here, it is just the most convenient option, and I could probably do a bit better if shopped the lines a bit more and maybe some future date I will look at that.
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Match Odds
Chelsea vs Fulham
Chelsea: Scott - 53.0%, Betting - 60.9% Opta - 59.4%
Draw: Scott - 25.0%, Betting - 22.6% Opta - 21.2%
Fulham: Scott - 22.1%, Betting - 16.5% Opta - 19.4%
The consensus here is Chelsea but Fulham have gotten draws in both matches to start things off this season while Chelsea struggled to create against a similar quality team in Crystal Palace.
I would have taken Fulham and the half point last weekend against Manchester United but I didn’t actually follow though on it. I think I like the way that they play against teams like this and would be hard to beat. The spread here has them at 2.4 which implies just 42% for a win or draw and I have that at 47%. I am still Chelsea skeptical and the big win against a bad West Ham team hasn’t changed that for me at all.
Fulham +0.5
Sunderland vs Brentford
Sunderland: Scott - 25.2%, Betting - 32.6% Opta - 33.2%
Draw: Scott - 29.3%, Betting - 29.6% Opta - 28.1%
Brentford: Scott - 45.5%, Betting - 37.8% Opta - 38.7%
I don’t have strong confidence in my model’s ratings of promoted teams and how teams that have had tons of transfer business like Brentford are tough to call.
There is some value here on Brentford just straight up to win where my model is pretty strong on them to win at 46% compared to the odds at 38%.
Brentford to win
Wolves vs Everton
Wolves: Scott - 33.3%, Betting - 34.4% Opta - 38.3%
Draw: Scott - 30.0%, Betting - 30.5% Opta - 27.8%
Everton: Scott - 36.8%, Betting - 35.1% Opta - 33.9%
My model doesn’t see any value here and I don’t have a good read for what Everton is yet. I like the business that they have done but I want to see a bit more here from both of these teams before doing anything.
Tottenham vs Bournemouth
Tottenham: Scott - 42.4%, Betting - 55.1% Opta - 52.7%
Draw: Scott - 25.2%, Betting - 23.5% Opta - 22.7%
Bournemouth: Scott - 32.4%, Betting - 21.4% Opta - 24.6%
Spurs got a big win last weekend against Manchester City and this feels like a line that has moved too much in response to that. Bournemouth have played well in their first two matches, showing up pretty well against Liverpool and beating a bad Wolves team. They lost a bunch of defensive talent but held on to the key attackers that they can offer threat.
Their chaos ball also just causes problems for lots of teams.
The line I am looking at here is Bournemouth +0.5 points at 2.05, that would say win or draw is implied at 49% and my model likes them much more than that giving them a nearly 58% chance of getting a result here.
Bournemouth +0.5
Manchester Utd vs Burnley
Manchester Utd: Scott - 59.7%, Betting - 69.7% Opta - 68%
Draw: Scott - 23.1%, Betting - 19.8% Opta - 18.4%
Burnley: Scott - 17.2%, Betting - 10.5% Opta - 13.6%
I am not touching Manchester United at all here. Nope need to see more here before even thinking about it. I also don’t like Burnley at all and would be uncomfortable doing anything on either side here.
Leeds United vs Newcastle Utd
Leeds United: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 28.7% Opta - 29.5%
Draw: Scott - 24.1%, Betting - 26.3% Opta - 25.8%
Newcastle Utd: Scott - 49.2%, Betting - 45.1% Opta - 44.7%
My model says there is a bit of value on Newcastle here, especially at -0.5 points. I just don’t know if it is strong enough to go with it yet.
I am staying away here.
Nott'ham Forest vs West Ham
Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 48.2%, Betting - 55.8% Opta - 55%
Draw: Scott - 27.8%, Betting - 26.2% Opta - 23.9%
West Ham: Scott - 24.0%, Betting - 18.0% Opta - 21.1%
My model likes West Ham but I hate West Ham and think that they are significantly worse than their current rating. It is just a squad that isn’t put together well and I am not betting on them for the foreseeable future. I am not high enough on Forest to override things here so this is a stay away bet.
Brighton vs Manchester City
Brighton: Scott - 23.6%, Betting - 24.8% Opta - 25.9%
Draw: Scott - 22.5%, Betting - 24.8% Opta - 23.8%
Manchester City: Scott - 53.9%, Betting - 50.4% Opta - 50.3%
This is a tough one and I generally like when you can grab home underdogs. This one is just one where there isn’t the value here and even though Manchester City lost against Spurs they were a few missed big chances from that story going the other way, that’s still a strong team and they have a big talent advantage. I don’t have a good read on either team here and I am staying away, even if I would lean Brighton here.
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Liverpool: Scott - 42.8%, Betting - 42.8% Opta - 44.9%
Draw: Scott - 22.0%, Betting - 27.7% Opta - 25.4%
Arsenal: Scott - 35.2%, Betting - 29.4% Opta -29.7%
Arsenal to win straight up here is where my model sees value and I’d generally agree here. That feels crazy to say given the injuries that Arsenal are coming in with and the amount of time since they last won here but this does just have the feel that the potential for this match favors Arsenal to actually win here.
The odds are fairly long at 3.2 and that is 29% vs my model putting it more like 35%. I hate betting with Arsenal on these types because if it goes wrong it feels like double punishment but I kind of want to back this one.
Arsenal to win
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Aston Villa: Scott - 46.2%, Betting - 49.6% Opta - 49.4%
Draw: Scott - 26.6%, Betting - 27.9% Opta - 25%
Crystal Palace: Scott - 27.2%, Betting - 22.6% Opta - 25.6%
There is no real value here and with Crystal Palace losing Eze, I want to see a few matches of how they adapt before putting any money behind them.
Here are my bets for Round 3:
Fulham +0.5
Brentford to win
Bournemouth +0.5
Arsenal to win
I have gone heavy towards road underdogs, and it does seem like my model doesn’t have quite as much homefield advantage priced in as the betting odds do. I didn’t particularly underperform for home predictions last season and have adjustments there so I feel decently that I am not making a major mistake here, but it is something that I will watch in the coming weeks.