Here we go on another week of looking at the Premier League matches and odds. I am pumped and ready after a full week off with the international break, it is one that makes things interesting as there are a number of injuries as well to have to consider.
My picks for round 3 lost going 1/4, I am 3/8 for the season overall. I feel a bit like I got some hard luck on them and I don’t think there was any major mistakes here.
Fulham +0.5, this was a tough one with the VAR overturn of the early Fulham goal and then a probably correct but equally could have found a way to not be given penalty the other way. It’s a stuff happens game and while you never know Chelsea looked good enough to win here.
Brentford to win, didn’t look good here at all. They missed a penalty and I had lost hope only to get a lifeline. They then gave it up late with penalty conceded of their own and then a late defensive lapse. Downgrading Brentford a bit on my mental model here.
Bournemouth +0.5, if I was bolder, I would have taken them to win and not just the points. A comprehensive and impressive win for Bournemouth. I think I was right to have a bit of skepticism on Spurs being a bit too high after City result but I didn’t imagine this happening.
Arsenal to win, we all know what happened here and there is no need to reopen those wounds. Fine margins will giveth and taketh.
The odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. There is no sponsorship or anything here, it is just the most convenient option, and I could probably do a bit better if shopped the lines a bit more and maybe some future date I will look at that.
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Match Odds
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
Arsenal: Scott - 62.0%, Betting - 69.3% Opta - 66.9%
Draw: Scott - 21.2%, Betting - 19.6% Opta - 18.1%
Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 16.8%, Betting - 11.1% Opta - 15.0%
The betting markets don’t stay stupid for too long and they have taken a quick reverse course on Nottingham Forest here. They were pretty overrated and now they are not looked at as a particularly strong opponent here.
The change in coach here from Nuno to Ange gives too much uncertainty for me to feel comfortable making a bet either way here.
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland
Crystal Palace: Scott - 54.6%, Betting - 56.6%, Opta - 71.6%
Draw: Scott - 26.4%, Betting - 26.2%, Opta - 16.3%
Sunderland: Scott - 19.0%, Betting - 17.2%, Opta - 12.1%
Sunderland have won their matches with a bit of smoke and mirrors and they aren’t really getting much love from the betting odds. I don’t know if I am convinced enough to back the money line on them winning, if the spread was +1 I’d look at it but it doesn’t show up as an edge here at +0.5
Bournemouth vs Brighton
Bournemouth: Scott - 38.5%, Betting - 39.2% Opta - 42.4%
Draw: Scott - 27.8%, Betting - 27.7% Opta - 26.7%
Brighton: Scott - 33.8%, Betting - 33.0% Opta - 30.9%
Another one that looks well priced by the betting odds and I don’t see any major value on either side of this or in the spreads.
Everton vs Aston Villa
Everton: Scott - 38.3%, Betting - 39.2% Opta - 34.5%
Draw: Scott - 28.2%, Betting - 29.4% Opta - 25.9%
Aston Villa: Scott - 33.5%, Betting - 31.4% Opta - 39.6%
I have been kind of impressed with Everton overall this season. The first game away to Leeds wasn’t good but they have beaten Brighton (a bit lucky) and Wolves (more convincingly). I am tempted to look at Everton to win here but I can’t quite pull the trigger on it and override the model.
Fulham vs Leeds United
Fulham: Scott - 48.8%, Betting - 49.4% Opta - 56.6%
Draw: Scott - 27.5%, Betting - 27.0% Opta - 22.4%
Leeds United: Scott - 23.7%, Betting - 23.6% Opta - 21.0%
Nothing especially good here, if this was at Leeds maybe I’d look harder at them but just not sure on it still.
Newcastle Utd vs Wolves
Newcastle Utd: Scott - 57.7%, Betting - 67.6% Opta - 64.9%
Draw: Scott - 24.1%, Betting - 20.6% Opta - 18.9%
Wolves: Scott - 18.2%, Betting - 11.8% Opta - 16.2%
The model likes Wolves and I can kind of see why that might be the case. Newcastle are a little injured (missing Wissa and Joelinton), missing Anthony Gordon with a suspension, and bedding new attackers. This could be a game that doesn’t suit them if Wolves sit back and make them create openings.
I just think Wolves might be trash.
Wolves at +1.5 just might be enough to make me get over that however because I can picture Newcastle struggling to create enough to beat them by 2 goals more than 40% of the time.
I am holding my nose and actually taking Wolves at +1.5 here.
Wolves +1.5
West Ham vs Tottenham
West Ham: Scott - 34.0%, Betting - 27.1% Opta - 32.7%
Draw: Scott - 27.1%, Betting - 27.9% Opta - 25.5%
Tottenham: Scott - 38.9%, Betting - 45.1% Opta - 41.8%
On the straight up bets my model leans West Ham, and normally I am down for a home underdog but I haven’t really seen anything good from West Ham that makes me want to back them here. You’d think a 3-0 win would have done that but that was a late flurry after 80+ minutes of yuck.
Nope not doing it.
Brentford vs Chelsea
Brentford: Scott - 30.6%, Betting - 20.5% Opta - 30.8%
Draw: Scott - 25.2%, Betting - 25.4% Opta - 25.1%
Chelsea: Scott - 44.2%, Betting - 54.1% Opta - 44.1%
After last round I am not trusting Brentford. I need to see more Chelsea to get a read on them. I will watch with interest but not making a bet here.
Burnley vs Liverpool
Burnley: Scott - 12.3%, Betting - 10.5% Opta - 13.9%
Draw: Scott - 18.0%, Betting - 18.8% Opta - 17.1%
Liverpool: Scott - 69.7%, Betting - 70.7% Opta - 69.0%
I am making an executive decision here an calling an override. Burnley against Spurs and United gave up 2.3 and 3.6 expected goals, those were away from home but they still look like they might have trouble stopping good attacks from generating chances. They ran so hot on defense last season in the Championship maybe there is still some mispricing here.
A big Liverpool win seems very possible here and I like the odds at -1.5 here.
Liverpool -1.5
Manchester City vs Manchester Utd
Manchester City: Scott - 57.4%, Betting - 54.0% Opta - 65.6%
Draw: Scott - 21.1%, Betting - 24.7% Opta - 18.6%
Manchester Utd: Scott - 21.5%, Betting - 21.3% Opta - 15.8%
Man City have come back from the international break injured badly. They have 10 players out potentially and with that much uncertainty there is no logical reason to put money behind them.
Here are my bets for Round 4:
Wolves +1.5
Liverpool -1.5
Not a lot of volume but it is a weird week coming back from an international break that saw a number of injuries and a lot of teams that have had change in the last week of the transfer window.