Here we go on another week of looking at the Premier League matches and odds. I have been traveling all week so I didn’t pay super close attention to the Champions League matches (caught up on highlights only basically outside of Arsenal) so hopefully that doesn’t hurt me too much when looking at these teams.
My picks for round 4 split going 1/2, moving to 4/10 for the season overall.
I won my Wolves +1.5 bet but that was a nervy watch given that Wolves were quite bad. They did just enough to limit Newcastle from finding their second goal and that was crucial because they didn’t seem to have much threat going the other way.
I lost my Liverpool -1.5 bet, and it happened in the worst way as an Arsenal fan. If Liverpool had dropped the points, like it looked going into stoppage time I would have ben able to better stomach it compared to a late goal that gave them the win but not by the margin that I needed. It was a tough one too because this was a match where Liverpool probably did create enough to score 2 goals but just didn’t have it happen here.
Gambling sucks sometimes.
On to the next slate of matches, I guess.
The odds here are from William Hill Nevada and are the odds available as I am writing this post. There is no sponsorship or anything here, it is just the most convenient option, and I could probably do a bit better if shopped the lines a bit more and maybe some future date I will look at that.
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Match Odds
Liverpool vs Everton
Liverpool: Scott - 68.4%, Betting - 66.0%, Opta - 71.7%
Draw: Scott - 18.6%, Betting - 20.5%, Opta - 16.2%
Everton: Scott - 12.9%, Betting - 13.5%, Opta - 12.1%
This is a close one and my gut is trying to tell me to trust that the Liverpool attack is coming together and getting better. The Burnley and Atleti matches were positive outings for them and they just had a bit of that finishing luck dry up/go against them on what could have been bigger wins.
I have Liverpool +1.5 priced at 44.8% in my model, the betting odds have it at 45.4% it is close but not quite at the +EV level here and I am going to stay disciplined here trusting things over doing too much overriding.
Also, I don’t want to open up that double heartbreak chance again (not that it is really in my thought process here).
Brighton vs Tottenham
Brighton: Scott - 40.9%, Betting - 40.9%, Opta - 47.4%
Draw: Scott - 26.3%, Betting - 27.7%, Opta - 26.2%
Tottenham: Scott - 32.8%, Betting - 31.4%, Opta - 26.4%
This is an interesting line and it is one where I am a bit interested in Spurs. It is almost a plus EV play to take Spurs +0.5 here and if I was struggling to find picks I might have been tempted on this one but there is enough else going on that I don’t want to stretch for it.
Wolves vs Leeds United
Wolves: Scott - 41.2%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 48.7%
Draw: Scott - 29.4%, Betting - 30.3%, Opta - 25.7%
Leeds United: Scott - 29.5%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 25.6%
Don’t trust these teams yet, especially Leeds away right now.
West Ham vs Crystal Palace
West Ham: Scott - 28.5%, Betting - 31.4%, Opta - 27.2%
Draw: Scott - 27.1%, Betting - 28.5%, Opta - 23.9%
Crystal Palace: Scott - 44.5%, Betting - 40.1%, Opta - 48.9%
West Ham are bad, I think that they could be in quit on their manager territory and I don’t think that it is fully priced in just how far away they are from their true level.
Crystal Palace have been pretty good this year and I feel comfortable that they are competent enough to find a way to win here.
Crystal Palace +0.5
Burnley vs Nott'ham Forest
Burnley: Scott - 26.8%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 32.2%
Draw: Scott - 29.1%, Betting - 28.6%, Opta - 24.4%
Nott'ham Forest: Scott - 44.1%, Betting - 42.9%, Opta - 42.4%
No way I am taking either of these teams right now.
Manchester Utd vs Chelsea
Manchester Utd: Scott - 39.0%, Betting - 34.8%, Opta - 28.7%
Draw: Scott - 24.7%, Betting - 26.1%, Opta - 24.5%
Chelsea: Scott - 36.2%, Betting - 39.1%, Opta - 46.8%
My model likes this as a home underdog bet, and I hate to say it but I kind of agree here. I don’t know that I truly believe that United would be ever so slightly to win over Chelsea but Chelsea had an away trip to Munich and follow that with an away League match and that is the situation with the most penalty after a Champions League match, this is also a Wednesday to Saturday turnaround.
United are 14th in the table but they have not been the 14th best team this season and they are better than their -3 goal difference for sure here.
Maybe I am talking myself into this because I just really don’t believe in Chelsea and I want to manifest this one into existence. I feel kind of yucky but I am going to do it.
Manchester United +0.5
Fulham vs Brentford
Fulham: Scott - 37.9%, Betting - 47.0%, Opta - 43.0%
Draw: Scott - 30.2%, Betting - 27.6%, Opta - 26.8%
Brentford: Scott - 31.9%, Betting - 25.4%, Opta - 30.2%
I have been burnt already backing Brentford but are they really that bad? They are not a good team but are they really that much worse than Fulham?
Fulham haven’t done much to score goals or create threat and I kind of see this one as a high probability for a draw with that being mostly fine from both teams. I like the odds of a draw plus the chance that Brentford do actually win here.
Brentford +0.5
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Utd
Bournemouth: Scott - 35.6%, Betting - 41.1%, Opta - 38.7%
Draw: Scott - 28.2%, Betting - 26.3%, Opta - 26.5%
Newcastle Utd: Scott - 36.2%, Betting - 32.6%, Opta - 34.8%
My model would say back Newcastle here, on either the win or by taking the +0.5 here as both plus EV plays. It is also a tough one as this is the first match after a Champions League match and it was a big one where they expended a lot energy vs Barcelona.
They are also dealing without Jacob Ramsey, Yone Wissa to injury and Anthony Gordon to suspension.
That is just enough that I am going to stay away here.
Sunderland vs Aston Villa
Sunderland: Scott - 25.4%, Betting - 26.9%, Opta - 22.5%
Draw: Scott - 30.6%, Betting - 29.4%, Opta - 22.2%
Aston Villa: Scott - 44.0%, Betting - 43.7%, Opta - 55.3%
On the one hand you have Sunderland who have been one of the more fortunate teams this early season and trying to hit that hard on the opposite side is a good opportunity. On the other hand, you have an Unai Emery team that has been dreadful, scoring 0 goals all season.
They are a bit unfortunate to have scored 0 goals, but they are not unfortunate to only have 2 points right now.
If I could have gotten a bit more on the Aston Villa side I could have talked myself towards it but it just doesn’t have enough juice on it.
Arsenal vs Manchester City
Arsenal: Scott - 44.6%, Betting - 49.4%, Opta - 52.2%
Draw: Scott - 23.0%, Betting - 27.0%, Opta - 24.4%
Manchester City: Scott - 32.4%, Betting - 23.6%, Opta - 23.4%
This is a tough one where I am torn on trying to make money doing this or if I want to give myself a bit of that security blanket of emotional support and not wanting to bet against the team I support even if that is potentially where things point towards.
The questions here is how healthy Arsenal will be here? The biggest calls will be Saka and Odegaard and it wasn’t the greatest update from Mikel here (not that I expected much in the way of news anyway).
Saka is a maybe for this match, he hasn’t trained according to Arteta and it will depend on how things look tomorrow for him. Noni Madueke has filled in well but he isn’t Saka.
It is similar with Odegaard, this one I think that there is more chance, and he will make a pretty big difference because pressing and controlling the midfield will be important and he’s the best overall combo of that for Arsenal.
City have their own injuries but the biggest one is that it looks like Rodri will be able to play and he is pivotal for how the team looks.
I can’t quite talk myself into taking a small stake in the City moneyline here even though I probably should do that, I don’t think that this is a fewer than 25%-win rate for City match like it is being priced at right now.
Here are my bets for Round 5:
Crystal Palace -0.5
Manchester United +0.5
Brentford +0.5
I’d really like to take 2/3 for these and get back into the positives for the season.