The Premier League season is almost here, which means it’s time to put our opinions on the line. Using Sporting Index point projections, rounded to the midpoint between the buy and sell spread, we’re picking over or under on every team’s expected total, starting at the bottom of the table and working our way up.
Hull - 24.5 Points
Adam: How the Hull did these guys get promoted? Their Championship promotion came despite some fairly mediocre underlying numbers…actually you know what, they were poor. These guys were 23rd in xPTS. That’s second to last! What in the world.
Hidemasa Morita has joined on a free, and I think he and Lucas Gourna-Douath are an interesting midfield in theory. But there’s little wiggle room around the fact that this was a third-tier Championship side and they’ve not gotten much better. Are we really talking about Oli McBurnie starting week one in 2026? Under.
Scott: Under.
Everything points to Hull being one of the worst ever promoted teams. The underlying numbers from the Championship point to a team that would have been more likely to have been pulled into a relegation battle than been in the promotion playoffs. They varianced and perfectly sequenced their way into the playoffs and continued their run to a Premier League season. They are a tough team to model but I see them below 20 points and potentially worse than that.
Ipswich - 33.5 Points
Adam: One year ago, Ipswich looked like a Premier League-level team in the Championship. They finished second on points but first on expected points, created chances for fun and generally spent the season running over opponents.
Gary O’Neil’s group has been bolstered big time in the transfer market, and honestly I really like some of the things going on here. Emersonn is a solid find up front and will be paired with veteran Daizen Maeda in an attack that could create some really fun moments. Abdul Fatawu is a player I’ve had an eye on for a bit as he’s struggled with injuries at Leicester but otherwise produced excellent numbers.
The rest of the window reminds me a lot of what Sunderland did last season, bringing in a mix of proven PL-level vets and dazzling young talents, the type who could produce a vibes-based run. Florentino is a good midfielder, though he was part of a historically bad Burnley side, while Saša Lukić has been something of a glue guy for the past couple of Fulham sides. Issa Diop and Julio Enciso are a couple more PL-proven players who could provide some lift to the Tractor Boys.
I have a hard time fully buying into this side staying up, but if anyone does it, I think it’s them. Over.
Scott: Over.
This is a tough one because I think that the line is set pretty well here for Ipswich and Coventry. I am going to take the over on both with the hope that we can see another genuine relegation battle this season.
Ipswich used their single season in the Premier League well, realizing that they were probably a few years away from sticking and bought younger. It paid off with them winning promotion as a strong Championship team and maybe sets them up for a better run at the PL this season. They (like so many teams here) are bedding in a new coach and that will be a major unknown, but they did go with help a team survive a relegation fight in Gary O’Neil.
This is probably closer to a 35 point team than a 40 point team but that’s still enough to lean over here.
Coventry - 34.5 Points
Adam: Lampard’s Coventry ran away with the Championship last season, but also overperformed pretty significantly, finishing second on expected points.
The addition of wonderkid Caleb Yirenkyi, who stood out at the World Cup at just 20 years old, is a big swing for The Sky Blues, who seem otherwise prepared to ride top contributors from last season like Brandon Thomas-Asante, Ellis Simms, Matt Grimes and Bobby Thomas to a hopeful non-relegation bid.
If I’m honest, I have a hard time looking at the likely XI here and seeing a side prepared to ride out the challenges of a full season in the Premier League. In fact, I’d put them below Ipswich Town in terms of pure “could they do it?” vibesmanship. I think the line here is pretty perfect, but I’ll go under.
Scott: Over.
We will get to see them up close and personal on Friday when they come to face Arsenal. I hope that they go away still needing the full 35 points in the remaining 37 matches.
Coventry were a good value for a Championship winner and were clearly the best team all season long there. They built the team on the back of a strong defense, a good attack, and maxing out set plays. I think that is a pretty good blueprint for translation into the Premier League. I don’t know if they will survive but I think that they could be right around the 38-40 point mark that might be required to do it.
Sunderland - 42.5 Points
Adam: Europa League football and Premier League survival attempts aren’t usually things you try simultaneously, but Sunderland under Regis Le Bris will face exactly that challenge!
This is a tough side to project, but I do foundationally believe that the Black Cats finished higher last season than their performance really “deserved,” for lack of a better word. Whether you side with xPTS and think they should’ve been in the relegation scrap or not, there’s a big gap there between where they actually finished and where they should’ve finished, in my book.
Their literal only move to date has been to add Thomas Meunier, so this side will really depend on Granit Xhaka bringing another season of stellar play, with continued growth from guys like Sadiki and Angulo, as well as Brian Brobbey.
I’m landing more on the pessimistic side here. Again, it’s a good line though. I’ll say over, but just.
Scott: Under.
Don’t back down, double down.
After looking like an idiot, expecting things to come crashing down for Sunderland all last season, I am back again doing the same thing. This time it will work!
On the underlying numbers last season they were below West Ham. They now have the extra fixtures from being in Europe during the midweek, and to date they haven’t added much depth to help account for that. I don’t think I’d make a huge bet that they’ll be relegated but it wouldn’t shock me and I expect that they will be dragged into the fight this season.
I think that they are roughly a low 40’s team and I think that with the burden of extra matches and expectation maybe that is something that enough times drags them down below this points total.
Fulham - 44.5 Points
Adam: I was consistently underwhelmed by Fulham last season, but they still managed to scrape out an underlying performance that was worth 12th on the table. Now they’ve lost their main striker, their main actual goal threat and their manager, who it felt at times was what was keeping them alive. They’ve replaced most of those with guys who 12 months ago were in the Real Madrid Castilla system.
Maybe Arbeloa wasn’t an actively bad manager for Real Madrid, but I don’t know what he did exactly to attract Fulham, where he brings several of “his guys” from Madrid.
As I look at this group and ponder the reliance on Garcia, Joshua King, Shea Charles and Oscar Bobb, I am dangerously close to predicting they get relegated…it just feels too much like post-Cunha and Ait-Nouri Wolves to me. Under…sorry Emile.
Scott: Under.
We have another team that is facing a new coach situation. Marco Silva isn’t exactly a Pep Guardiola but he was a competent manager with a successful track record in the Premier League and with this team, getting the team to look coherent and play up their talent. They have replaced him with Alvaro Arbeloa and he’s tough to really draw conclusions about. That is the first thing that makes me worry about the downside here for them.
The other big thing is that this team has lost a lot of goals from last year. The players that have left scored 24 of their 47 goals last season. Harry Wilson was on a heater and that was unlikely to repeat but those were still goals that would have needed to have been scored to repeat their performance. They have leaned into some youth signings to try and pick it up and maybe it works out but it is a risk.
I think that there is just enough here that I am feeling the under. I think they are safe and around the 15-17th best team but there is an outside shot that they get pulled into the relegation fight.
Crystal Palace - 45.5 Points
Adam: Palace’s underlying numbers were much better than their actual finish last year, and that usually gets my attention. But looking at this group, I also can’t ignore the switch at manager.
Pierre Sage arrives alongside Dwight McNeil, Oscar Mingueza and Takehiro Tomiyasu, and at a time when Marc Guehi and Maxence Lacroix have departed, giving Palace a different profile than they’ve had in recent seasons. It will be important for Palace to retain Ismaila Sarr, if possible, since Europa League football adds further complexity.
The good news is that Adam Wharton is back, as are the promising defenders Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot and Chadi Riad. I’m interested to see what Adam’s Guy™ McNeil does here, alongside Yeremi Pino and ADAM formula darling Anan Khalaili. As of this morning they’re linked to midfielder Kevin Danois, another formula guy.
A pretty boring midtable finish around 10th or 11th wouldn’t shock me, but if I’m being totally honest, neither would 16th. The range of finishes is that wide open to me. I’ll take the Over, but if they drop Sarr, I’d reconsider.
Scott: Over.
We repeat ourselves with another club coming into 2026/27 with a new coach and the complications of that.
This is a team that I think is starting from a stronger base. They did lose out on a starter from last year’s team in Maxence Lacroix but as I am writing this have been able to hold on to everyone else major from last season. The first 13-14 players on the team are pretty strong but they have been picked over and replacing quality players is tough, leaving the depth a bit questionable. That will be an issue with a Europa League campaign to contend with.
I think that they are still a solid team and that they should be in the mix of anything can happen mid-table teams.
Leeds - 48.5 Points
Adam: I’ve seen Leeds kind of all over the place in preseason predictions, and after thinking it over, I’m more bullish on them than some of my contemporaries.
This side was better than its 14th-placed position last season and lost basically no one. Harry Wilson feels like a great free addition, one of Fulham’s real reasons for existing last season. Trafford cost a ton of money but should be an improvement, and I have been saying for a bit how I like Tarik Muharemović at the back. This is not a flashy group of players, but another year together could be a big deal for them. They could also be stagnant with less output from Calvert-Lewin. We’ll see, but I think a slight step forward is coming. This is a great line, but I’ll go Over just to have a different pick to Scott.
Scott: Under.
Leeds got 47 points last season and I think that was pretty fair for them and I total repeat of that, solidifying them in the Premier League is their goal. That will end up a bit under the total here.
I think that the team might still be limited by Daniel Farke on how they can go, but he did help lead them to another year of Premier League football. I am not blown away by the moves that they have made in the transfer market here but it doesn’t look like a disaster.
I think that they should be able to stay above the fray in the relegation fight but it might still be more like a mid 40’s campaign than a high 40’s and that puts me under.
Nottingham Forest - 48.5 Points
Adam: Forest finished about at the level they deserved last season, ending up 16th on both real and expected points. They were, however, first in expected managers.
Now they’ve got Oliver Glasner, a much more stable option, leading the way. But is their organization stable enough to support him?
Elliot Anderson is a major, major exit. He was probably their best player last season by a distance. That puts a ton of pressure on new arrival Xaver Schlager, to me always a middle-of-the-road player in Germany, as well as the newly extended Sangaré to really step up. Gibbs-White will have to be outstanding as well.
Glasner does seem to get the best out of players in England, but the talent level isn’t convincing to me. We’ll see what he can do here. Just over.
Scott: Over.
Forest crashed back to earth last season after they flirted with Champions League qualification. They also had stylistic whiplash going from manager to manger. They have now made another move to change managers but have done so with a bit more time to allow the team to adapt, going with former Crystal Palace manager Oliver Glasner.
Glasner at Palace made them a tough to breakdown and dangerous on the counter team, that is a template that fits the talent and on paper should work at Forest. They have lost Elliot Anderson to Man City but they should still have a deep enough squad that they can survive in the mid-table and maybe even surprise.
Bournemouth - 48.5 Points
Adam: Iraola leaves, Europa League football arrives. Whether Bournemouth are ready for it is another question.
Marco Rose inherits a side coming off a superb season, but balancing Europe and the league isn’t easy, and his recent CV doesn’t inspire me, considering he kinda wrecked a lot of great players at Leipzig. António Silva could be one of the smarter defensive signings of the summer, while Álvaro Rodríguez adds another attacking option who had good numbers for a less-sexy side.
I’m interested to continue watching Kroupi, though he’ll miss a stretch of the season to start. He ran well above underlying numbers last year and would be a strong candidate for regression once he’s back. Senesi was also a really important part of this group, so his absence could be critical. That said, there is real quality here, be it Alex Scott, Tavernier, Truffert, Evanilson or Rayan. Those guys should keep Bournemouth football fun for another season, though I’m expecting a slight step backward overall. I think this line is pretty appropriate, but they’ll be just over.
Scott: Over.
If they had Andoni Iraola coming into this season this would be the easiest decision here but they don’t and we have another team with the questions about how they adapt to a new coach. Bournemouth have a bit of the Brentford/Brighton benefit of the doubt here, I have seen them seem to have a really good organization working behind the scenes to keep things going.
There is a good group of talent on the roster (and several players that will be on the wish lists of big teams in the coming seasons), Marco Rose seems like a good coach and he shouldn’t be too large of a departure from Iraola.
My expectation is more like 50 points and that this team should have some upside on top of that if the young player continue to progress.
Newcastle Utd - 48.5 Points
Adam: OK, what hasn’t changed in Newcastle? Bruno Guimarães, Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali leaving is a seismic amount of talent headed out the door. Eddie Howe is gone, too, and Matthias Jaissle now has to rebuild a team that once looked like a Champions League regular.
I actually like several of the incoming names, particularly Amar Dedic and Bazoumana Touré. But Newcastle didn’t fix the fact that they’re basically down to Will Osula and Yoane Wissa at striker, as Woltemade takes on more of a number-10 role. Can Anthony Elanga produce … anything this season? Are Steur and Bamba ready to actually play in midfield in the PL? Because those departures are monstrous.
Missing Europe will help a young side as it finds its way through a big transition, but this season could also get ugly at times. Under, though I think this line moves as they make a couple more signings.
Scott: Under.
Newcastle have seen their numbers drop the most of any team since I have been watching the betting odds. They started the summer over 50 points expected and now seem like they have an outside shot getting pulled into the relegation race. Losing 2/3 your starting midfield, a key attacker in Anthony Gordon, and the ball progression from Kieran Trippier, plus your manager is enough to do that.
I can’t say I have a lot original to say about Matthias Jaissle, but he does have the Red Bull pedigree. The Newcastle group seem happy with him and I will take their word for it.
Newcastle have turned over the squad betting on higher upside younger players. There will probably be growing pains and unless everything breaks perfect, another season under 50 points and in the lower mid-table range.
Everton - 48.5 Points
Adam: I again quietly find myself feeling pretty confident in a David Moyes Everton side. McNeil and Gueye are somewhat significant losses in their own ways, but Everton are precisely the kind of system you’d expect Brennan Johnson to make some trouble in. Hayden Hackney-Kieran Dewsbury Hall is a solid midfield pairing, and I still like Ndiaye if they can keep him. Maybe not incredible but I think reliably ok here. Over.
Scott: Under.
I don’t have a lot to say about Everton. They aren’t all that exciting, the moves they have done are solid but nothing more than that. They have a solid squad that doesn’t have any massive holes in it but also doesn’t really have anyone to get your blood flowing.
Solidly safe, little upside, no major reason to tune in each week if you’re not a fan of the team or who they are playing.
Brentford - 49.5 Points
Adam: I was really hoping Brentford would find their way into Europe last season, but they fell just short. That may benefit them in other ways, namely this Premier League season.
Keith Andrews seems to have outed Thomas Frank as a system manager and looks very steady at the helm here. Meanwhile player movement has been friendly to the Bees, so key guys like Thiago, Schade, Dango, Damsgaard, Jensen, Kayode, Collins and Yarmolyuk are all back. I like the addition of Jaidon Anthony as another attacker who can do surprisingly well with not so much service, but I do have questions whether Thiago can run quite as hot for a second season in a row.
I expect these guys will continue to be a big thorn in the top tier’s paws this season. Over.
Scott: Over.
I was worried about Brentford last season, they were losing some key players and Thomas Frank. They looked like they might be in trouble but in the end their process won out. They know exactly what they are, they are very good at finding it in the market and they continue to find little edges that allow them to continue to punch above their weight.
It would be stupid to count them out again. I don’t know if they will be on the edge of Europe but it does seem like a good bet that they will be able to continue to be one of the better mid-table teams with upside that their youth could take a leap.
Brighton - 52.5 Points
Adam: Brighton have again Brightoned.
They swapped out Jan Paul van Hecke – a key player – for Spurs’s Luka Vuskovic, one of the more intriguing young defenders in Europe. Pascal Struijk will figure significantly this season, one of the better defenders in the PL nobody ever talks about. Mitoma will hope for better fitness, and now Promise David has joined to bolster the striker ranks, but the loss of Danny Welbeck to Chelsea could actually matter quite a bit. Other than Promise, Brighton will have to finally give minutes to Greek youngster Charalampos Kostoulas, be it in league or European play. For me, that creates a big question regarding where goals come from here.
Aside from that, Baleba’s departure will create a hole in midfield, but not an insurmountable one from where I stand. With the addition of Conference League, I foresee a slight step backward in league play. I’m gonna go with an intentionally contrarian under to keep things interesting.
Scott: Over.
Like the other two “B” teams that are well run, there is a lot of trust built up that the team knows what they are doing. They understand their spot in the global pecking order and will sell players when it makes sense, replacing them with the next group of young prospects and get back on to the treadmill of getting to the edge of Champions League qualification.
As I am writing this the Carlos Baleba to Manchester United rumor is heating up and that won’t help here but overall I think that they have enough benefit of the doubt to not change my mind enough.
They are a solid enough squad, with plenty of talent and upside that I think that mid 50’s points is possible again for them.
Aston Villa - 56.5 Points
Adam: Villa last season finished fourth despite only ranking 13th in xG, the ultimate Emery special. Should I be impressed, or should Villa fans be terrified? This season might be the ultimate stress test.
Gone is Morgan Rogers, a very anti-xG type of player. Youri Tielemans crucially has left the midfield. Emi Martinez seems next out the door, and quite possibly followed by Ollie Watkins, another player capable of turning an xG slogfest on its head in one play. And of course, Ezri Konsa is also not walking through that door.
I do like Johan Manzambi, and think Joao Gomes is the type of smart signing you make when you need a PL experienced midfielder. But to replace that much of your foundation, when also adding the Champions League to your plate? Oh, and now Lucas Digne has fully been replaced by Ian Maatsen, whom I’m still not sure what to think about. We’re going to have to see just who comes in at the back and the front to replace Konsa and Watkins, should they both leave.
Even with a not-depleted squad, I’d be leaning on Villa to take a step back due to Emery’s history of lesser league play once he’s in the CL. Now I’m betting hard on it. Under.
Scott: Under.
The underlying numbers HATED Aston Villa last season. If you were betting based on those numbers you would have ended up very unhappy. Maybe there is just a black magic to them where they will continue to defy that gravity. I am skeptical about it and the number of key players and just general turnover in the squad is tough. (I am also lucky enough to see Ezri Konsa leaving before publishing this).
When they were scoring the unlikely goals, the team looked good. When the Morgan Rogers bangers stopped, the team didn’t look so good. Maybe someone else steps and scores those and they just keep rolling on. I am happy to let someone else take that chance and I will hope that this is finally when things come home to roost and they are what is expected of them.
I expect that they will fall back into the mid-table this season.
Tottenham - 60.5 Points
Adam: It seems pretty likely that Spurs will improve on last season’s 17th place finish. De Zerbi has stayed on, and they played a little better under him. I look at Van Hecke, Fernandes and Tonali as bar-raisers in key positions, even if the latter two did cost a stupid amount of money.
The forward moves they’ll make will play a key role in determining their future, and the latest news – Savinho and Marmoush – does not inspire. But I expect we’ll see at least a little more from Xavi Simons this season, as well as Mathys Tel. Mohammed Kudus? Not sure what to tell you. I was set for a controversial over here, but this line is too high for my taste. Under.
Scott: Under.
Spurs have decided to spend BIG rebuilding the squad and taking a massive pivot away from young athletes to players that have more Premier League experience. They haven’t exactly gotten value for the money that they have spent but I think that they have improved and started to build a team that could actually fit into what Roberto De Zerbi wants to do tactically.
The have midfielders that can actually pass the ball in Mateus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali. Jan Paul van Hecke and Marcos Senesi are not walking errors. Robertson looked old at Liverpool but he’s still a solid player. They seem like they are also making a double swoop to upgrade the attack with former Man City players.
The big reason that I am on the under is that this is still a 20 point improvement that would be needed to be able to take them from 17th back into the top 5 range. That is a big jump for any team and it might be too much even for how much they are spending this summer. Maybe they will make me look dumb and actually make that big of a jump (United did it last year) but you will often be right betting against Spurs.
Manchester Utd - 68.5 Points
Adam: Really weird trying to evaluate these guys, from where I stand. On the one hand, United were the third-best side in the league last season, picked up steam as the campaign went and seem to have found a manager in Michael Carrick and pieces like Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo who can get them closer to the Premier League summit, to say nothing of Benjamin Šeško.
On the other, there are some caveats to what United did last season. They overperformed expected points by about nine, so underlying stuff puts them more about even with Liverpool. They rode a wave of a stupid amount of goals from an aging Casemiro to their place, and also did so while not playing in Europe and suffering early cup losses across the board.
If United are going to replicate or even improve upon last season, it’s going to have to include some better process overall. It will also require some growth from younger guys like Amad, Kobbie Mainoo and Leny Yoro. Bruno Fernandes was the top creator in the league last season but more like a “just barely” best creator than a “wow look at that record-setter.” He will likely continue producing at a high level, and I like what United did adding Tielemans and Santos behind him, though I’m not completely sure how to feel about Baleba, who had a tough season at Brighton. However, he is the profile they needed to add to that midfield. But then, so was Ugarte.
United will need production from their depth guys to compete on both fronts this season, and though the trend that I’ve seen is to expect them to be even better this season, I think the added stress on the squad might have them roughly even year over year. This is a really good line to me and I think they’re within five percent of it either way. Under?
Scott: Over.
Manchester United look competent. They have built a solid squad and so far this summer have made solid improvements to address the needs that they have. Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans should be enough to replace Casemiro. They are also looking to add Baleba to midfield and that should help them with the extra matches of the Champions League.
They haven’t made any attacking additions and they look content to hope that they get internal improvement from Benjamin Sesko.
Overall I think that there is still some fragility and air in the numbers. They were able to focus entirely on the Premier League last season and they won’t have that luxury this season. The underlying numbers were not nearly as good as the results were under Michael Carrick. Bruno Fernandes had a career year at 31 years old and that probably won’t happen again, you never know when that age cliff will come.
I have almost talked myself into the under here, but I am going to hold my initial thought and think that this is a low 70 point team.
Chelsea - 68.5 Points
Adam: Where to even start with these clowns?
How about here: Chelsea finished 10th and missed Europe. However, their underlying numbers were much closer to a top-five side. Then they went out and signed half the continent.
Morgan Rogers is the obvious headliner, and I’m extremely curious to see how he slots in among Cole Palmer, João Pedro and Estêvão, as well as how well Palmer plays in what should be a return back to regular fitness for him. Avoiding red cards, of course, is paramount for Xabi Alonso’s side.
And Xabi is a good manager! I believe he will be a net positive for Chelsea as a whole. But I have some remaining questions about the personnel he’s been given, especially Rogers and whether his Villa bangers will translate to a side that might have to break down more set defenses at times. I’m also marking myself down as skeptical that Jorrel Hato is the right guy to play left wingback, so the loss of Cucurella could be significant here.
Are the litany of other guys still picking up checks from BlueCo and/or transfers in from Strasbourg – Valentin Barco, Emanuel Emegha, Mudryk, Nic Jackson, Romeo Lavia, Disasi, Anselmino, Gittens, Delap, Guiu, Datro Fofana – even worth mentioning? Who the hell knows.
If Xabi Alonso gets this clicking, Chelsea could make the Champions League – the talent is good enough. If not, they’ll have to find some more real estate to sell to themselves, or things will get even bleaker on the balance sheet here. But overall we can’t have nice things, so I’ll say over.
Scott: Over.
The team that is a trading firm with a side of football playing.
They finished a hilarious 10th place but they were a much better team than that and this shouldn’t be the real baseline for the expectation around them. They had bad sequencing, poor finishing luck, and too many red cards. They also seemed to just give up on LinkedIn Rosenior.
Now they have pivoted to a good coach in Xabi Alonso and with that to a new transfer strategy where they are actually okay with players over the age of 22. The squad is still too big and maybe it has more outs that need to happen.
I think that they will be in the hunt potentially for a 70-point season and maybe a bit more than that.
Liverpool - 70.5 Points
Adam: The coronation of the most recent defending champs as the reigning dynasty many expected after last summer never happened (self-back-pats to us for being skeptical there), and a year later, there are more questions than ever about this side.
Starting with the good news – Andoni Iraola is a good coach, and he should bring Liverpool back to the rock’n’roll style they were closely associated with in the Jurgen Klopp era. The less-good news if you’re a Liverpool fan is that, even if they get Bradley Barcola through the door today, there are still a lot of gaps in their squad.
Despite Jeremy Jacquet and Ronald Araujo joining, the center-back spot is still woefully thin, with oft-injured Joe Gomez the closest thing to cover behind Virgil Van Dijk. Milos Kerkez and Jeremie Frimpong are still crucial at the fullback spot, where (also oft-injured) Conor Bradley may be forced to play a bigger role, along with Dominik Szoboszlai in a pinch.
Up front, Liverpool have Alexander Isak, who I do feel is likely headed for a strong bounceback season, but who will flank him is a real puzzle. Despite losing the face of their club going back nearly a decade, Liverpool have no real right wing players to speak of outside of Federico Chiesa, and have been strongly linked with a sale of Cody Gakpo from the left wing spot. That would leave newly signed Víctor Muñoz, Rio Ngumoha and possibly Harvey Elliott as other options alongside the potential Barcola. Needless to say, LFC should try and add to those numbers, even if Hugo Ekitike is able to make a quick return from a bad Achilles injury, which isn’t a given.
Iraola’s football should create volume and intensity, and I do believe in much of the talent they’ll send out on a weekly basis. The question is going to be about repeatability of their highs, and whether they’ve got the depth to withstand continued presence in two major competitions deep into a season, especially in attack. I’ll take the under for now, but only slightly, and let’s see who comes aboard in the next fortnight.
Scott: Over.
I think I am bullish on Liverpool. Everything that could go wrong for them, went wrong for them last year. The Slot solving injuries magic didn’t last, they lost key players that were tough to replace (even after winning the transfer window), Salah got old, and they ended up with one of the worst title defense season’s in a while. All that being said, they were still probably the 3rd/4th best team last season overall.
I am a fan of Andoni Iraola, he’s done a great job at Bournemouth and that was a continuation of his impressive stint at Rayo Vallecano. He’s done well adapting to the players that he is given and figuring out the best way to maximize and fit it into his principals of play. It is hard to make the jump up to an elite team as we have seen a number of times but this does seem to be a solid fit between team and coach.
The 71 point bar kind of scares me, but I think that you don’t need to much rosy projections to see a mid 70’s points total here and that this team might have might have a pretty high ceiling.
Manchester City - 76.5 Points
Adam: We should probably talk about the departures.
Rodri, Bernardo Silva and John Stones are not normal players to lose in the span of a year. That’s a lot of intelligence, experience and control disappearing from one squad, compounded by losses I’ve been talking about previously like Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker, İlkay Gündoğan, Aymeric Laporte and Ederson, among others. And I have yet to mention Pep Guardiola.
Yet, City are City. Elliot Anderson has joined in a record-breaking deal, and they’ve still got Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, Marc Guehi, Josko Gvardiol and others. That’s a good base to build from.
My biggest questions are about the rest of the guys here. Can Anderson really rise to Rodri’s level on a more ball-dominant side? Jérémy Doku was genuinely more of a drag on Belgium’s World Cup run than anything – after hitting a level he’s never hit last season, can he get back there again, or was that a fluke? Would Ayyoub Bouaddi be enough in midfield, or would City need another? Can Nico O’Reilly remain the nuisance he was at key moments last season, or will his deficiencies be more pronounced under a less “Pep” coach? What about Matheus Nunes? There are plenty of things to wonder about here, and I haven’t loved the way City have gone about building this squad for a stretch now – impending departures of Reijnders, Gonzalez and Marmoush only prove my point.
Is this the season karma blows up in these guys’ faces? I’m somewhat tempted to call it, but I want to see what happens with the rest of the window. I think a line where they take a slight step back is appropriate, so I’ll say under.
Scott: Under.
I don’t want to overreact to a single data point of getting the snot kicked out of you by Arsenal. I think that will happen to a lot of teams this season but it does give a clearer picture about the gap between City and Arsenal. The overall change factor is what makes me skeptical about them, they have been doing serious rebuilding since January 2025 and have basically turned over most of their squad since then.
They are selling even more of their attacking depth to Spurs and that can allow them to fire the money cannon again at another player or two.
There is still a lot talent in this team but the uncertainty around them has not been higher in more than a decade. Given that, on balance the scenarios where they are more a Champions League level team than a title contending team are more likely and that pushes me to taking the under here.
Arsenal - 80.5 Points
Adam: For all the talk about needing to strengthen here or add depth there, Arsenal’s title-winning season was remarkable in the sense that it tested the side’s depth at every turn. Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Noni Madueke, Mikel Merino, Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori and Piero Hincapié each missed significant stretches of the season, and I feel like I’m probably forgetting someone or two as well.
Did the club attack as well as some of its contemporaries? No, not all the time. Did it defend much, much better? You bet. And this is without fielding its indisputable first XI before about February.
As such, I don’t view the key to this season to be adding more players here or there – I view it as getting the most appearances out of Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka in particular, while doing their best to protect others like Declan Rice from potential burnout. Bruno Guimarães is undoubtedly one of the best midfielders in the Premier League, so he and Myles Lewis-Skelly’s emergence – not to mention a fitter Martín Zubimendi – should go a long way toward that.
The biggest question for me is centered fully around William Saliba and Jurrien Timber and their projected returns. I do view Ezri Konsa, Cristhian Mosquera and Ben White as worthwhile stand-ins. If Arsenal can hold things together until both players are back, that would be huge.
The other question I encounter most often is all about mindset. Will Arsenal, league title now in tow, approach this season with less pressure and more of a relaxed mindset, which could enable higher levels of dominance? Or, having finally crawled over the line in first, is this a letoff year waiting to happen? After watching the Community Shield, I’m more inclined to believe it’s door number one, particularly given the tone Mikel Arteta sets within the building, but we’ll see.
It’s very, very interesting to me to note that as of now, Arsenal and Liverpool have more of what you might call “title-winning experience” in their buildings than City, who just said goodbye to three more key cogs of their most recent title. Will that make a difference as well?
This line feels low for a title favorite, and last season I predicted Arsenal to win the league with 88 points. At this point it’s as much a bet on decent health as anything, but I’ll take the over here.
Scott: Over.
If Saliba was healthy this line would be higher. If Timber didn’t have big question marks that would move it more. Even with these injuries, Arsenal have the best and deepest squad, reminding everyone about that in the Community Shield.
I am getting heat because I don’t love the Ezri Konsa price but there is no doubt that he will help Arsenal’s floor in the injury absence of Saliba and Timber. They are still a bit short in elite attacking talent but I think that maybe the return to health and addition of more midfield progression will help ease those worries.
I am still bullish on Arsenal and think that another mid-80’s points total is the baseline here.
Those are our picks heading into the new season, but with the transfer window still open, some of these projections could shift. Agree or disagree, one thing is certain: if the Premier League delivers another season as chaotic as the last one, plenty of these over/under calls won’t survive first contact with reality.
Let us know what you think we got right, what we got wrong, and where you see the teams based on these points totals.
You forgot White.
Enjoyable commentary.