Premier League Simulation - 2025/26 Season

Latest simulation for the Premier League

Updated 2026-05-05:

This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.

Simulated Table and Outcomes:

The title race took another dramatic turn as the “inevitable” Manchester City salvaged a late draw against Everton but still dropped two crucial points. This has swung the race back into Arsenal’s hands and they have the commanding position with a clear path to their first title in 20 years.

Here are the latest updates.

Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:

Here is how the ratings that feed into the simulation view all of the teams:

Here is how it has changed since the pre-season baseline:

Here is how each team has performed compared to the difficulty of their schedule so far.

Key Race Points Distributions:

These graphics show the distributions for some of the key races. These help to illustrate the tipping point spots that would be required to get more points than second (win the title), finish in the Champions League spots, and ensure safety.

Title:

Manchester City needed to win out to have a realistic shot at winning the title, they needed to do something that they hadn’t done all season long and win 8-straight. They didn’t and only just managed to salvage a point after a shaky second half against Everton. The schedule is still tough for them where they need to play 6 times between next Saturday and the end of the season.

It’s not impossible or improbable that Man City drop more points on the way to the end of the season.

The magic numbers are back, and it is a combination of 8 points won/opposition dropped for Arsenal to win the title this season; after being stuck for a while, we got a big change this weekend. We also saw Arsenal end the very slim hopes that Manchester United could sneak above them, guaranteeing no worse than second place this season.

Champions League:

Aston Villa might be trying their best to make the battle for 5th place interesting but outside of a major collapse they should be able to hold on to that spot. If they win the Europa League they could even open up 6th place to the Champions League.

Chelsea’s bad 2026 continued and that is delightful. They have slim hopes of squeezing into 6th place and they would have to hope that it good enough for the Champions League. I don’t know what they would do to their financial picture if they fail but I really want to find out.

Relegation:

Leeds and Forest have all but guaranteed safety with wins and it looks like Tottenham might just survive now. West Ham’s loss combined with a surprise Spurs win flips the odds for who is likely to go down.

West Ham’s schedule is tougher and that will up the difficulty of the task, not that I’d expect Spurs to come away with a ton of points from their final three matches either.

It could still come down to the final day of the season, Leeds will be safe and Everton could still have something to fight for… you never know.

I will keep updating this as the season progresses.