Premier League Simulation - 2025/26 Season

Latest simulation for the Premier League

Updated 2026-04-21:

This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.

Simulated Table and Outcomes:

The title race is basically a dead heat, and it is in both Arsenal and Manchester City’s hands now to go and win this thing. Neither team needs the other to screw up to win it but a misstep by either could be the difference.

Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:

Here is how the ratings that feed into the simulation view all of the teams:

Here is how it has changed since the pre-season baseline:

Here is how each team has performed compared to the difficulty of their schedule so far.

Key Race Points Distributions:

These graphics show the distributions for some of the key races. These help to illustrate the tipping point spots that would be required to get more points than second (win the title), finish in the Champions League spots, and ensure safety.

Title:

Manchester City needed Arsenal to stumble and play worse than they have all season long to open the door for them and that is exactly what they have gotten over the last couple of weeks. 2/5ths of Arsenal’s losses have come in the last two matches, and it feels worse because this is on top of Arsenal losing twice in the Cups. Arsenal’s form over the last month is 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses. It doesn’t feel good.

Manchester City needed to win out to have a chance, and they have passed the two biggest tests that they had with wins against Chelsea and Arsenal. The final matches of the season aren’t easy but they will be favored in each one. They might pull off their best stretch of form of the year and if they do hats off to them.

The magic numbers are back, and it is a combination of 16 points won/opposition dropped for Arsenal to win the title this season, it has unfortunately been that way now for a couple of weeks and this hasn’t really changed enough for any Arsenal fan’s liking.

Champions League:

The target for 5th or better looks like it is going to be in the low 60’s right now. The race for that last sport looks like it will need to be 61+ points.

It was a bad weekend for Chelsea who now look like massive, long shots to finish in the Champions League spots, even with the Premier League gifted an extra spot. Their best hope might be Aston Villa finishing 5th and winning the Europa League.

Relegation:

I really didn’t expect West Ham to pull this off but it looks like they just might be able to do it. They have jumped over Spurs and they held their ground matching the draw that Tottenham earned on Saturday.

The target for Forest, Spurs, and West Ham is that 39-point magic number. This looks like it will be a fun fight to watch going down to the wire. Leeds were able to get over that line and that should cover all but the most catastrophic of outcomes, Forest are a win away from hitting it and come in with the advantage on goal difference to both teams chasing them.

West Ham’s schedule is tougher and that will up the difficulty of the task.

They have the better overall form here and the advantage of just needing to match what Spurs do the rest of the way.

I will keep updating this as the season progresses.