Premier League Simulation - 2025/26 Season

Latest simulation for the Premier League

Updated 2025-12-09:

This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.

Simulated Table and Outcomes:

Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:

Here is how the ratings that feed into the simulation view all of the teams:

Here is how it has changed since the pre-season baseline:

Here is how each team has performed compared to the difficulty of their schedule so far.

Key Race Points Distributions:

These graphics show the distributions for some of the key races. These help to illustrate the tipping point spots that would be required to get more points than second (win the title), finish in the Champions League spots, and ensure safety.

Title:

For winning the title the current view is that it will be a low to mid 80’s points again, with second place looking like it will not get more than the low 80’s.

Champions League:

This still has the threshold at 4th place, if the Premier League guarantees 5th place as a Champions League spot I will switch to this view.

The target for 4th or better looks like it is going to be in the mid to high 60’s right now.

Relegation:

This is viewed a bit as a two-horse race with Leeds and West Ham, they will both be looking at the magical 38-point mark as the goal.