Premier League Simulation - 2025/26 Season

Latest simulation for the Premier League

Updated 2026-01-27:

This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.

Simulated Table and Outcomes:

Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:

Here is how the ratings that feed into the simulation view all of the teams:

Here is how it has changed since the pre-season baseline:

Here is how each team has performed compared to the difficulty of their schedule so far. We are still in the relative parity position around the half mark, we will potentially see some change in this over the next few weeks before everyone gets pulled back to the center again.

Key Race Points Distributions:

These graphics show the distributions for some of the key races. These help to illustrate the tipping point spots that would be required to get more points than second (win the title), finish in the Champions League spots, and ensure safety.

Title:

For winning the title the current view is that it will be a low to mid 80’s points total with the average dropping down to 80-82 points, with second place looking like it will not get more than the mid to high 70’s with a shot an outside shot at the low 80’s. Getting to 86-87 points now looks like it might be enough. Aston Villa and Manchester City’s max points is 91 and I can’t see them right now going on winning 14/16 type streak personally.

Champions League:

Manchester United’s back-to-back wins against Manchester City and Arsenal has shaken up this race.

This still has the threshold at 4th place, if the Premier League guarantees 5th place as a Champions League spot I will switch to this view.

The target for 4th or better looks like it is going to be in the mid to high 60’s right now.

The race for the Champions League might be the only interesting one that we have here in a bit if things continue as they are currently.

Here is how things look with Champions League going down to 5th place:

There is a real possibility of one of Manchester United, Chelsea, or Liverpool not qualifying even with qualification going down to 5th place. That could be spicy.

Relegation:

Relegation is starting to get a bit more interesting. West Ham have won back to back times and that has opened the window a bit more. They are still the heavy favorite but they have found life after those results, going from 95% to 85%. I will gladly take this being interesting over it being a foregone conclusion.