Premier League Simulation - 2025/26 Season

Latest simulation for the Premier League

Updated 2026-03-17:

This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.

Simulated Table and Outcomes:

After a bumpy patch for Arsenal where it looked like things might not work for them, they have seen their fortunes turn around.

We are approaching the business end of the season, and the title odds have never been higher for Arsenal. It might actually happen for the gunners.

Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:

Here is how the ratings that feed into the simulation view all of the teams:

Here is how it has changed since the pre-season baseline:

Here is how each team has performed compared to the difficulty of their schedule so far. We are still in the relative parity position around the half mark, we will potentially see some change in this over the next few weeks before everyone gets pulled back to the center again.

Key Race Points Distributions:

These graphics show the distributions for some of the key races. These help to illustrate the tipping point spots that would be required to get more points than second (win the title), finish in the Champions League spots, and ensure safety.

Title:

The path for Manchester City has narrowed significantly, they basically have to win out and even that might not be enough for them.

The magic numbers are back, and it is a combination of 16 points won/opposition dropped for Arsenal to win the title this season.

Manchester City can max out at 85 points, Arsenal can max out at 91, if past is prologue there will be more dropped points along the way (I know people didn’t believe it but that is exactly what happened).

Arsenal are guaranteed to have a top 6 finish this season even if they don’t pickup another point.

Champions League:

This still has the threshold at 4th place, if the Premier League guarantees 5th place as a Champions League spot I will switch to this view.

The target for 4th or better looks like it is going to be in the mid to high 60’s right now.

Here is how things look with Champions League going down to 5th place:

There is a real possibility of one of Manchester United, Chelsea, or Liverpool not qualifying even with qualification going down to 5th place.

Relegation:

Spurs got a pivotal point against Liverpool and that for now seems to have been enough (with the goal difference as well) to keep them just on the right side of the three-way scrap. It’s going to be a dog fight to the end.

I will keep updating this as the season progresses.