Updated 2026-11-09:
This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.
Simulated Table and Outcomes:
I hate that we have to put this up top but that is the unfortunate state of the Premier League. The model doesn’t know that Manchester City were found to be guilty of systemic cheating by the Independent Commission and we don’t know the punishment or the timing of that yet. Until then, I have made the choice to keep things as is.
Anyway, back to the simulation update. We are now through 10 matches and it has really started to open up for Arsenal. Another win and a Man City loss has pushed the current standing gap to them to 6 points and over the rest of the season that is expected to continue to grow.
Brighton have continued to win and that has pushed them into a position where they have a chance but the challengers are all starting to face a pretty big gap to try and catch Arsenal.
The title odds only look in doubt right now because we don’t know if Manchester City are going to get a big points deduction or not.
Brighton have jumped Liverpool after this weekend and are now third on the table. Manchester United are somehow still holding on here in midtable with a chance to actually recover from the bottom of the Premier League table but I have to say that this is something I am not buying right now.
Here is how the odds and ratings have changed since last round.
Here is how the odds and team ratings have changed since the start of the season.
I have always looked at the spread betting as interesting view for what the people who have money on the line think about the teams compared to my models and I will do more tracking of that this season.
Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:
These next graphic are probably at the peak interesting, this is about where the spread on schedule differences happen and after this everyone will get pulled back in towards the average.
Looking Ahead
We still have a long time to wait until the Premier League comes back but here is the stat of things for when we do. Here are the strength of schedule for the next 8 rounds of the Premier League.
I will keep updating and adding on to this as the season progresses.