Premier League Simulation - 2026/27 Season

The place to find the latest CannonStats simulation for the Premier League

Updated 2026-08-15:

This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.

Simulated Table and Outcomes:

We have another Premier League season and that means another year tracking the odds for how my simulation model projects things to turn out.

I have some pretty big visual changes this season moving over to my integrated stats dashboard but the overall information and the underlying model are all the same. I have more automation so there is less manual work for me and that should make keeping things up to date easier.

That’s enough preamble and here is how things stand a week out from the start of the 2026/27 season.

I have always looked at the spread betting as interesting view for what the people who have money on the line think about the teams compared to my models and I will do more tracking of that this season. Here is how that looks for the preseason.

For an Arsenal fan, things look pretty good. Arsenal start off with the highest title odds but it is still pretty wide open. The last two winners have been at 85 and 84 points and as things stand that is viewed as likely to repeat.

The general strength from top to bottom of the Premier League will be pretty strong again and that will tend to depress points totals because so many teams will have a realistic chance of taking points off the top teams.

Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:

Speaking of team ratings, that is what we have next here. I have not made any adjustments for new managers here and with some pretty big changes that could be a factor that isn’t captured.

Spurs who filtered with relegation have had a busy summer and combined with a strong finish under RDZ are the team that takes the biggest jump from their finishing position last season. Chelsea aren’t far behind and they will be interesting to watch given that they don’t have any European matches and can focus on a single match a week.

The flip side of this is that Sunderland are still not rated here, they were a surprising 7th but my model still views them as one of the weakest teams in the League.

The big outlier here is Hull, they look like one of the weakest promoted teams in a long time and they are a very tough team to try and model.

We don’t have any matches played yet so we don’t have a strength of schedule view yet.

Looking Ahead

Here is a new look and graphic that I will keep updated based on what I built for the run in. This will look at the upcoming matches and the overall difficulty for each team.

City, Arsenal, and United were all handed relatively easy starts to the season here and it will be interesting to see if one of these teams can explode out of the gates to build out a lead in the title race.

I will keep updating and adding on to this as the season progresses.