Updated 2026-09-21:
This page features Premier League projections from my model. I will try and keep this updated at least once a week after the model runs.
Simulated Table and Outcomes:
For this first time this season, Arsenal have dropped out of the favored position on the top of the table.
My model has had strong priors on Manchester City and thinks that they are close to Arsenal on overall quality. The fact that they now have a 3 point gap and are on roughly equal footing, gives them a slight edge here. Arsenal are expected to be better than them over the remaining 33 matches but only on average by about a point.
Both Arsenal and Manchester City are projected to be above 80 points and after that there are no teams within 13 points of them on average. All of the hype around the field and they all look like they have some serious flaws.
The next three are their own tier, and then there is the large mid-table grouping where trying to differentiate is still a very tough task.
The spreads are still pretty wide here for most teams and that isn’t too surprising because the results so far show that just about anyone can beat anyone.
Here is how the odds have changed since last round.
Here is how the odds and team ratings have changed since the start of the season.
I have always looked at the spread betting as interesting view for what the people who have money on the line think about the teams compared to my models and I will do more tracking of that this season. Here is how that looks for the preseason.
Team Ratings and Strength of Schedule:
This next graphic will become more interesting over the next couple of weeks, but we have a match played so we can look at performance vs schedule difficulty.
Looking Ahead
We still have a long time to wait until the Premier League comes back but here is the stat of things for when we do. Here are the strength of schedule for the next 8 rounds of the Premier League.
I will keep updating and adding on to this as the season progresses.