I missed last weeks bets because it ended up being a crazy week and I just ran out of time to spend the time needed to go through the matches and the odds. The week before I went 0 for 4 so maybe it was good for me to go get a little extra time.
I am still up on the season but that did put a dent in my ego.
This week I have made the time and I think I feel pretty good about my picks this week.
Newcastle Utd vs Arsenal
I am putting 2 units on Arsenal here. I have some pretty big confidence for what Arsenal can do here and I think that the injury situation is probably less bad than it was last week.
Arsenal were able to have a more training type match than Newcastle in the midweek and they also have the intangible need to avenge from last season’s robbery by the referees.
This is a plus EV bet as well which makes me feel even better.
Southampton vs Everton
Southampton aren’t great, Everton are weird but probably solidly good enough. I think that this match also favors Everton where they can play this on the break and hopefully take advantage of Southampton making a mistake.
My model has this as a plus EV play and I do like the odds here at 2.6
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Manchester City will probably figure out a way to still win this but if there was a time for them to drop points and lose I would love it to be here. Bournemouth are a team that I think could be designed to give City trouble and they just had a punishing League Cup match where they are left very short of senior players (I don’t really trust Pep to tell the truth on the injury situation either).
My model has this as a plus EV bet and I hope it is right here at 5.5.
Manchester Utd vs Chelsea
This one feels like they are giving me free money.
I know Manchester United got rid of Ten Hag but this is still a dysfunctional team that is not exactly coherently built. It is at Old Trafford but I strongly believe that Chelsea is a much better team and that they will be able to show it here.
I have Chelsea at 2.45 to win here.