Premier League Week 11 Picks
My bets for the weekend
Quick recap from last week:
Last week the bet on Bournemouth over Manchester City got me to a profitable weekend.
I was confident about Arsenal and that bit me and Arsenal had one of their worst performances of the year. Yuck. It has turned the vibes bad especially when combined with a bit of a footballing in the Champions League.
Everton were bad and they look like they could be in trouble not able to do much of anything against Southampton
I was pretty big on Chelsea and they did okay, maybe if they got the red cards they win that match but it wasn’t a bad beat at all.
Overall, still up 3.6 Units on the season.
Picks for Week 11:
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa (+1.5) - 1.75
Aston Villa - 7.0
The betting odds have this one closer to 14% implied and I like this closer to 17%. I also just think that this might tilt towards the style of Unai Emery in a big game. I would like it more if they were at home, especially coming off a pretty limp Champions League performance in midweek. I did take a hedge bet here too to give me some coverage on a close loss or draw.
Crystal Palace vs Fulham
Fulham - 2.6
Crystal Palace have not played especially well this season. Fulham have. Betting odds have it closer to 36% while my model has it closer to 40%. The other one is that Palace are pretty hard hit with injuries right now and I think that might tilt it further Fulham’s way.
Manchester Utd vs Leicester City
Leicester (+1.5) - 1.83
Leicester - 8
Another one for I have a hedge bet because I think there is a good chance that this is just close regardless, but I want some of the upside if Leicester can get something from it. The betting odds have at 12% while I am closer to 16%, maybe too much hope that the team is better with the lifting of Ten Hag from management.
I still think that this is a team that is flawed and I hope that being at home maybe they leave an opening for Leicester to counter them through.
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Utd
Nottingham Forest - 2.65
Forest look legit and this might end up more of a draw but overall I do like the chance that they can be hard to score against and carve out enough to get some goals.