Year four, here we come!
Arsenal today learned their eight league stage opponents in the Champions League. If you’ve forgotten or never cared to learn the rules, the clubs in first through eighth after these matches will advance automatically to the round of 16, while the clubs 9th through 24th advance into a one-round, seeded playoff. Every club who’s qualified for this stage faces two clubs from each pot, which are sorted by club coefficient, essentially a measure of how well you’ve done in UEFA comps over the past five years.
So, without further ado, here’s who Arsenal drew and what to expect:
Real Madrid at home
Manager: Jose Mourinho
Last season finish: 2nd in La Liga, CL quarterfinals (lost to Bayern)
Key players: Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Federico Valverde
Key additions: Yan Diomande, Marc Cucurella, Denzel Dumfries, Bernardo Silva, Carlos Espí, Ibrahima Konaté
Key losses: Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos, David Alaba
Notes: Plenty of familiarity here at this point, and it will be fun to see just how Arsenal fans respond to Vini’s visit to what nearly became his new home. Real Madrid may have swapped out coaches, but Jose Mourinho is doing more of what fans there are used to already, beating Real Sociedad and Espanyol by a combined 6-2 (four Mbappé goals) to open. Old friends Marc Cucurella, Bernardo Silva and Ibrahima Konaté feel likely to start here, if fit, while so far Arda Güler has been the guy off the right wing rather than new signing Diomande.
Bayern Munich away
Manager: Vincent Kompany
Last season finish: 1st in Bundesliga, CL semifinal (lost to PSG)
Key players: Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Manuel Neuer, Luis Díaz
Key additions: Ismael Saibari, Nathaniel Brown
Key losses: Leon Goretzka, Raphaël Guerreiro
Notes: Bayern will again be a high-octane, goal-happy side under Vincent Kompany. New additions Saibari and Brown are both of a profile where they could be starting by the time these guys host Arsenal, or they could be key pieces off the bench. Either way, this will be a fascinating rematch of last season’s league stage match, where Arsenal largely had their way and won 3-1. At the Allianz, things probably won’t be quite so easy.
Borussia Dortmund at home
Manager: Niko Kovač
Last season finish: 2nd in Bundesliga, CL round of 32 (lost to Atalanta)
Key players: Felix Nmecha, Nico Schlotterbeck, Serhou Guirassy
Key additions: Konstantinos Karetsas, Giannis Konstantelias, Joey Veerman
Key losses: Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt
Notes: A rematch of a hotly-contested preseason matchup here. You get the feeling, looking around their teamsheet, that this season for Dortmund is going to be at least somewhat driven by what Konstantinos Karetsas can accomplish in their number 10 role. For the first time in awhile, I don’t see a really obvious, gem-of-the-market type of player in their midst aside from the Greek midfielder. This team should instead really rest of the contributions from Felix Nmecha, who became a bit of a key cog last season, and stalwart strikers Maxi Beier and Serhou Guirassy. Overall there is talent here, but a side that Arsenal should still be able to beat.
Real Betis away
Manager: Manuel Pellegrini
Last season finish: 5th in La Liga, Europa League quarter finals (lost to SC Braga)
Key players: Pablo Fornals, Diego Llorente, Antony
Key additions: Troy Parrott, Fran García, Facundo Bernal
Key losses: Sergi Altimira, Nobel Mendy, Pau López
Notes: Another preseason rematch! Real Betis hung three on an uncharacteristically sloppy Arsenal side in the summer, but as matches have begun to count their attack has gotten back to it’s pretty tepid form. They’ve added former Spurs prospect Troy Parrott at striker, where he’ll compete with Cucho Hernandez for minutes. Despite having less than stellar reps among English fans, a lot of this club’s success is determined by Antony, Cucho and Fornals, so they’ll be the guys to key in on in front of what should be a fiery Seville crowd. If Abde Ezzalzouli is fit, he’s a guy to watch off the left wing.
Lille at home
Manager: Davide Ancelotti
Last season finish: 3rd in Ligue 1, Europa League quarter finals (lost to Aston Villa)
Key players: Nathan Ngoy, Hákon Haraldsson, Olivier Giroud
Key additions: Başar Önal, Oscar Gill, Dilane Bakwa
Key losses: Ayyoub Bouaddi, Aïssa Mandi, Thomas Meunier
Notes: Giroud back at the Emirates! Lille were decent last season and made a fairly deep run in the Europa League, but just looked so toothless against Aston Villa. Önal is a guy who has popped on my formulas and is one to keep an eye on, as is the potential exit of Matias Fernandez-Pardo, a key attacker. Haraldsson is an advanced midfielder who’s easy to like and should be key to any Lille output. At the back, the losses of Mandi and Meunier drain LOSC of some of their veteran leadership, but plenty of talent remains in the form of Ngoy and Alexsandro.
Napoli away
Manager: Massimiliano Allegri
Last season finish: 2nd in Serie A, 30th in Champions League league stage
Key players: Scott McTominay, Gio di Lorenzo, Rasmus Højlund
Key additions: Alisson Santos, Vanja Milinković-Savić, Benoît Badiashile
Key losses: Miguel Gutierrez, Giovanni Simeone, Romelu Lukaku
Notes: Napoli will likely have added a new number nine by the time this match is played, giving them another option up top besides Rasmus Højlund. But I still wouldn’t count on this side being the high-flyers they were when Victor Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia donned their colors. Napoli put up less than 1.0 xG in its season opener at Genoa this past weekend, and last season couldn’t even get out of the league stage as they really struggled to attack. Sure, there’s KDB, but he’s not the Kevin of old, making this largely a team carried by former Man Utd players. If Napoli can again rise to the top of the list of Italian sides not named Inter, it’s likely behind McHøjlund and a strong season from a youngster such as Alisson or Antonio Vergara.
Sabah at home
Manager: Valdas Dambrauskas
Last season finish: 1st in the Misli Premier League (Azerbaijan)
Key players: Veljko Simić, Joy Lance Mickels, Tymoteusz Puchacz
Key additions: ?
Key losses: ?
Notes: For the second year running, Arsenal get a very cool story as their pot four home opponent. Sabah outlasted Qarabağ to win its first league title last season (not as amazing as it sounds at first blush, since they were founded in 2017), then took out The New Saints, Finnish side KuPS, Danish side AGF and Israel’s Hapoel Be’er Sheva en route to league stage qualification. Anyone who tells you they know a lot about Sabah’s football is probably lying, but I can tell you their run to the league stage was powered by the key players above — Serbia’s Veljko Simić, Rwandan striker Joy Lance Mickels and Polish fullback Tymoteusz Puchacz, who did play a half-season at Plymouth Argyle. Can those guys accomplish anything in a Premier League stadium? Chances probably aren’t great.
Slavia Praha away
Manager: Jindřich Trpišovský
Last season finish: 1st in Chance Liga, 34th in Champions League league stage
Key players: Michal Sadílek, Lukas Provod, Tomáš Holeš
Notes: Slavia makes two clubs who finished 30th or worse in last season’s Champions League. Their 34th-placed finish was less shocking than Napoli’s 30th, to be fair, and the club are back to take another crack at it. What we know - this is one of Czechia’s most out-and-out attacking sides, banging in 74 goals in 35 league games a season ago. They didn’t have to go through qualifying this season but are off to a hot start in league play, winning their three openers by a 11-2 tally. Longtime Eredivisie player Michal Sadílek and winger Lukas Provod both went to the World Cup with Czechia, as did veteran defender Tomáš Holeš and leading scorer Tomáš Chorý. 22-year-old CB Ange N'Guessan became Praha’s new record signing this summer, surpassing El Hadji Malick Diouf, so the Ivorian will be a key player as well. In terms of system, Trpišovský tends to play an attacking three-at-the-back with wingbacks and two tens behind a striker, so this should be a fun one to watch.
Overall thoughts
There’s definitely some sticker shock among Arsenal fans regarding this draw due to the known brand names involved, but I’m not going as strong on this group of opponents as many.
Using the CannonStats Elo rating system, Arsenal’s draw ended up 23rd hardest.
Realistically the Gunners were always going to have a very tough away game from pot one, where the “easiest” draw was probably visiting Atletico Madrid. Facing Bayern Munich away instead is truly splitting hairs, though I love the idea that we’re discussing whether it’s feasible to again go unbeaten in this phase. Real Madrid are a strong, strong opponent for the home match and Arsenal will have their work cut out for them. But winning this competition involves exactly that sort of thing, and we have reasons to believe Arsenal are capable of beating the Galacticos.
Real Betis are a perfectly respectable side with good players but would’ve been among my three or four leading options for an away match in Pot 2, likely behind a Tzolis Derby in Brugge or a return to Eindhoven but ahead of options like Lisbon, Roma, Porto or Dortmund. Getting Dortmund as arguably the toughest pot two side (among possible options) again isn’t easy, but I’d expect the comfort of the Emirates to be helpful in pulling out a good result here, and I’d probably add that I think this is one of the weaker Dortmund sides we’ve seen in recent memory.
Lille and Napoli are two more sides where the brands are more known and therefore sound scarier, but in each case you’ve got a club going through some major changes, and neither is an attacking machine. There’s absolutely an argument that going to Naples is preferable to Istanbul or Norway in particular, whereas Leipzig and Villarreal likely would’ve been two of the toughest draws away in terms of opponent player quality.
The pot four draw was always going to be a couple of “you should really win this pretty much no matter what” types of games, but there were simultaneously three sides to avoid because they’re better than your standard pot four team — Como, Lens and Stuttgart — and another to avoid because of the annoying travel, which was Sabah away. Missing all of them is about as friendly as things get here.
Overall, Arsenal did draw the hardest team in two of the pots and got them both away, but outside of those matches they ended up doing better than average, including the lowest ranked Pot 2 team.
Regardless of which sides Arsenal had ended up with here, failing to advance or even make the top eight would have been considered a major disappointment. In my estimation, this is still a path that Arsenal should be able to overcome en route to knockouts, and you could say the ordering of the fixtures - which will be done by Saturday - will be as key as anything.
A quick simulation here still puts Arsenal in a very strong position and as long as they take care of business they should be able to avoid the extra matches that play-off brings.
Other winners and losers
Among the other pot one clubs, I really think Manchester City got the toughest draw (among Pot 1 teams, their draw is rated the hardest). Porto, Lens and Leipzig are among the best sides in their pots, and City got all three of them away. The Citizens will also have to host PSG, which was probably the most difficult home match you could draw, while also picking up a really rough away day at Barcelona. Enough to keep them out of the top eight? We’ll see.
Speaking of PSG (their is 2nd hardest among Pot 1 teams), I think they got a pretty tough run as well. Villa won’t be the same side they faced in the quarter final two seasons ago, but the Parisians have to go to Villa Park, City, Villarreal and Como, a tough four-pack of away days. They also drew both Roma and Galatasaray, two difficult but winnable home matches.
I think we’re actually pretty even in terms of difficulty across pot one, but my pick for easiest likely is Liverpool or Real Madrid. The Reds pulled a trip to Club Brugge’s stadium, probably the least difficult from pot two, but going to Turkey has been tough on them in the past, so don’t count out Fenerbahce. Madrid have to visit Arsenal, but otherwise got Inter, PSV, Leipzig and LASK at home and Roma, Shakhtar and AEK away. There should be no last-minute qualifications for them this season.
Aston Villa likely do have an easy enough path to get through to the knockouts again, but it won’t be all flowers and candy. The Villans will have to take advantage of home matches against Dortmund and Fenerbahce while visiting Brugge and Galatasaray, and I’d think they’ll need at least one win from those away matches.
Could Bodø/Glimt do it again? A lot of the team that stunned Inter is back, and they got arguably as favorable a home slate as they could’ve in Atleti, Dortmund, Lille and LASK. They’ll need to maximize home field advantage again, because matches away to Bayern, Club Brugge, Lens and Napoli also awai.
Como are new to the fold and as a pot four club were never going to have a favorable draw. But getting Barca and PSG from pot one and United/Real Betis from pot two is pretty brutal. Big task for Cesc and his guys.
Manchester United avoided a trip to Barcelona, Paris or Munich, but going to a match at Atleti is anything but easy for them. They also pulled a real sleeper slate of difficult away matches at Sporting, Como and Villarreal. I wouldn’t put it past Michael Carrick’s side to be fighting for its spot until late in the stage.