Previewing Arsenal’s best and worst Champions League draws
Which clubs could trouble the Gunners in the round of 16?
The field of 16 is set! And in what I’d consider a breath of fresh air, Arsenal cannot be drawn against Bayern Munich next.
By winning Group B, Mikel Arteta’s tricky reds deposited themselves into the list of seeded clubs that includes Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Real Sociedad. That means Arsenal cannot face any of those clubs next round.
Other rules to remember before the UCL Round of 16 draw this coming Monday: clubs cannot be drawn against others from their association, and cannot have a repeat opponent from their group. Since Manchester United and Newcastle let their country down, that means only PSV are barred from a potential Arsenal matchup among the unseeded clubs.
Not everyone is a massive dork who watches and absorbs as much football as possible, and for those people, I’ve gone ahead and ranked potential opponents. I’ll start with the easiest draw (in my opinion) and end with the club I’d find the most difficult. Let’s go!
7. FC København
It was a stirring group stage for Byens Hold, the reigning champions of Denmark.
FCK advanced from group A on the strength of a last-day win over Galatasaray and a surprising 4-3 win over Manchester United, as well as draws away to both Bayern Munich and Gala.
Manager Jacob Neestrup likes to set up the Lions in a 4-3-3, from which they’re able to both create a good amount of chances (they racked up 2.22 xG at Old Trafford) and they defend quite well most of the time.
Aside from their smaller stature as a club, one reason to potentially root for a draw of FCK is their desire to employ a lot of the same principles as Arsenal, such as pressing intensely after a backpass, using their keeper in the build-up and their tendency to play a higher block out of possession.
Players to watch from this side would include Diogo Gonçalves, the left CM, as well as striker Victor Claesson. Lukas Lerager, right midfielder and leading scorer from the group stage, will be suspended for game one. And while Roony Bardghji gets a lot of publicity, actual left wing starter Elias Achouri is key to the attack.
As far as I can tell, Arsenal-København isn’t a fixture that has happened before, another fun angle.
6. Lazio
The Guen-Derby! Mattéo only started two group stage matches, but who wouldn’t want to welcome him back to the Emirates?
Maurizio Sarri’s men hold this spot in part because of their form - they’re 10th in Serie A although underlying numbers would push them a bit higher.
The Biancocelesti have played some of the most static football in Italy under the chain-smoking Sarri this season, scoring and conceding just 7 goals in the Champions League. That hasn’t been quite the case in league play, though, as they’re more upper-mid-table in underlying metrics.
A lot of the creation of Lazio is dependent on the duo of Luis Alberto in midfield and former West Ham man Felipe Anderson wide right. And of course, Ciro Immobile is the goal threat here.
From what I can find, Arsenal’s last date with Lazio was in the 2000 Champions League.
5. Porto
The dragões (dragonsssssss) are no bad side, but it this point I put them bottom of what’s left. Sérgio Conceição sets his side up in a 4-4-2, with an aggressive and intense press and a high line. The Porto attack looks to transition quickly and relies on short, dynamic passing to get the ball up the pitch.
This high line could of course play to Arsenal’s strength, allowing room for Martinelli and Jesus to operate. João Mario and Zaidu Sanusi aren’t bad fullbacks, but I wouldn’t back them to win that battle.
One other thing about Porto is that while they’ve got a number of quality options in the side, they lack a star in the making as they’ve had previously in Luis Diaz. They struggled to create much of anything against Barça, whose defense is to me lesser than Arsenal’s. That said, Mehdi Taremi can be a handful, as can Evanilson, Galeno and Pepê (the attacker, not the CB).
This would be the first Arsenal-Porto meeting since the 2010 Champions League.
4. Napoli
What a difference a year makes. The defending Scudetto winners were nowhere as good under Rudi Garcia as under Luciano Spaletti, and now Walter Mazzari has taken over.
Mazzari is a three-at-the-back coach but so far has kept Napoli’s 4-3-3 structure, as well as maintaining a high press and focus on tempo. While Napoli aren’t as bad as their position on the Serie A table, I still haven’t seen enough to inspire the fear they put in opponents last season. They were soundly outplayed by Inter just over a week ago, and while their attack creates chances, they have been one of the leakier “good” teams in Serie A.
Of course, a lot could change by two months from now. Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are two very talented players who give even good opponents trouble. Captain Giovanni Di Lorenzo is a talent, and the midfield is a good collection of players, but has struggled.
Arsenal last played Napoli in the 2019 Europa League.
3. RB Leipzig
This is probably a little controversial! Let me explain. Marco Rose often sets his side up in a 4-4-2, or a 4-2-2-2, depending on your perspective. They prioritize directness and verticality in possession, which creates opportunities running in behind, particularly against high lines. Loïs Openda is great in such a role, and flashed bigtime in RBL’s second match with City. It’s not that Arsenal cannot defend that, but worth noting that Elye Wahi did give William Saliba trouble in that type of role.
Think about it: a side that doesn’t necessarily make a lot of chances, but has the ability to score a goals from few chances? Sounds like multiple against Arsenal.
Much of the magic of Leipzig does happen up front, with Openda and the electric Xavi Simons joining up with the likes of Dani Olmo, Yussuf Poulsen, Timo Werner and Emil Forsberg. Leipzig also boast good attacking fullbacks in David Raum and Benjamin Henrichs, whose presence has led Rose to set up with three at the back on occasion. While I like Xaver Schlager and Amadou Haidara, I would say midfield would be a mismatch in Arsenal’s favor.
Out of possession, Leipzig like to force the ball wide and clog up central areas, which could play into Arsenal’s strengths building up on the flank. Leipzig are typically thought of as an attacking side, but this season have been strong defensively as well, third in Germany. They did concede 10 in group play, though, and I’d fancy Martinelli and Saka against their wide defenders.
Arsenal has never played RB Leipzig in a competitive match.
2. PSG
The list of names may be more impressive at Luis Enrique’s club, but PSG to me have the feeling of a side lacking a real identity — unless you count the identity as “Mbappe.”
Not that he’s a bad identity to take on. The Frenchman has 15 league goals already, with his next teammate at 4. He was the only multi-goal scorer for PSG in group play. Of course, he’s surrounded by quality players like Ousmane Dembélé, whose performance against Newcastle was rotten but whose season has been quite good.
I’d back Declan Rice to match Manuel Ugarte in midfield and then some, while I think tactically PSG’s high line is another that could be exploited. Like Arsenal, PSG will look to monopolize possession and keep the ball moving, and create chances through sheer brilliance in attack. Noteworthy: Enrique was panned for playing four attackers and two midfielders against Newcastle, a game they lost 4-1.
PSG last played Arsenal in the 2016 Champions League.
1. Inter
There was recently a podcast (I forget the name) that argued this tale of the tape, so why not let them duke it out?
Inter are having a great season, leading Serie A behind ridiculous starts from Lautaro Martinez, Hakan Calhanoglu and Marcus Thuram, to name a few.
Simone Inzaghi’s men have both the best attack and defense, although that form hasn’t completely translated to the UCL (particularly in attack). That’s part of why I think they’re the toughest draw.
Among others: Inter’s performance against Manchester City in the UCL final was genuinely one of the best and most surprising I’ve seen against City on a big stage.
Inter are good at approaching a game in multiple different ways, always setting up in a 3-5-2 with Calhanoglu pulling the strings as regista and Barella going box to box. They like to build slowly from the back, but can transition quickly into the final third. Some matches they’ll press with intensity, while others they’ll settle into a low block. It’s a club with good players, good coaching and a lot of momentum. Of course, that could change by February.
Arsenal last played Inter in the 2003 Champions League.
One thing I’d say about this draw: I think Arsenal have the quality to beat any of these sides. I wouldn’t say there’s a big favorite for the CL in general among these choices, but I could be wrong.
Who’d you like to draw on Monday?