Previewing Arsenal's Champions League opponents
What do we make of the eight-match road to the playoff?
Year three, here we come!
Arsenal today learned their eight league stage opponents in the Champions League. If you’ve forgotten or never cared to learn the rules, the clubs in first through eighth after these matches will advance automatically to the round of 16, while the clubs 9th through 24th advance into a one-round, seeded playoff. Every club who’s qualified for this stage faces two clubs from each pot, which are sorted by club coefficient, essentially a measure of how well you’ve done in UEFA comps over the past five years.
So, without further ado, here’s whom Arsenal drew and what to expect:
Bayern Munich at home
Manager: Vincent Kompany
Last season finish: 1st in Bundesliga, CL quarterfinals (lost to Inter)
Key players: Harry Kane, Michael Olise
Key additions: Luis Díaz, Jonathan Tah
Key losses: Kingsley Coman, Thomas Müller, João Palhinha
Notes: Arsenal and Bayern have no shortage of links to one another at this point, be it their history of meetings in the Champions League, the fact that Bayern have chased at least three Arsenal starters at various points — Rice, Havertz, Raya — and that Arsenal have been linked to Kimmich, at the very least. Bayern also employ former Arsenal boy and lifelong Arsenal fan Harold Kane, as well as academy product Serge Gnabry.
From a footballing standpoint, the club came out the gate rip-roaringly hot, smoking RB Leipzig 6-0 on Bundesliga’s opening day. But just this week, they required a stoppage time PK from Kane to beat a lower-tier side in the DFB Pokal, how Man United-esque. It will be interesting to keep an eye on their form as the season goes on, because at times they’ve looked imperious under Kompany, and at others they’ve looked uninspiring. Olise has been monstrous, and Díaz has started well. The only way Musiala features in this tie is if it falls to January, as he suffered a serious injury in the very necessary and important Club World Cup.
Inter Milan away
Manager: Cristian Chivu
Last season finish: 2nd in Serie A, CL Final (lost to PSG)
Key players: Alessandro Bastoni, Marcus Thuram, Lautaro Martínez
Key additions: Andy Diouf, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Luís Henrique, Nicola Zalewski
Key losses: Joaquín Correa
Notes: Simone Inzaghi had a worse year than Spurs and couldn’t take the shame of it, so he up and moved to Saudi Arabia. Taking over is club legend Cristian Chivu, who managed a dozen matches for Parma before taking over one of the largest clubs in the world. Chivu so far looks keen to keep Inzaghi’s customary 3-5-2, with wingbacks providing width for a three-man midfield and strikers Martinez and Thuram providing most of the attacking output. Hakan Çalhanoğlu was the center of a dramatic potential exit saga over the summer but seems set to stay now, so we’ll see whether he remains at his best. Inter are typically great when they can settle in their block, but Arsenal still outplayed them in last season’s matchup, so I’m sure the guys wouldn’t mind another attempt at this one.
Atlético Madrid at home
Manager: Diego Simeone
Last season finish: 3rd in La Liga, CL round of 16 (lost to Real Madrid)
Key players: Julián Álvarez, Antoine Griezmann, Jan Oblak
Key additions: Alex Baena, Marc Pubill, Giacomo Raspadori, Dávid Hancko, Johnny Cardoso
Key losses: Rodrigo De Paul, Arthur Vermeeren, Axel Witsel, Angel Correa, Saúl Ñíguez
Notes: Lots of turnover at Atléti this summer, and while it’s very early days, the side so far seem to be struggling to answer the questions before them. They were sluggish at Espanyol and didn’t take their chances against Elche, resulting in four dropped points so far. Some of the struggle is surely breaking in new squad members, as detailed above, and saying goodbye to longtime standbys like De Paul, Correa, Saúl and Witsel. Atléti are capable of being stout as any opponent, as they showed against Real Madrid in the knockouts, but it may be better to get them earlier.
Club Brugge away
Manager: Nicky Hayen
Last season finish: 2nd in the Belgian Pro League, CL round of 16 (lost to Aston Villa)
Key players: Hans Vanaken, Christos Tzolis, Brandon Mechele
Key additions: Mamadou Diakhon, Aleksandar Stanković, Carlos Forbs, Ludovit Reis, Nicolò Tresoldi
Key losses: Ardon Jashari, Maxim de Cuyper, Chemsdine Talbi, Ferran Jutglà
Notes: It was a huge summer of turnover for Club Brugge, and what you see now is a club in an entirely new era. The incomings are very young, except for Reis, so Brugge could have some growing pains along the way. Despite their absolute pantsing of Rangers in the playoff, 9-1, I would still regard this as one of the weaker Pot 2 sides, meaning Arsenal are fortunate to draw them away.
That doesn’t mean that Arteta can write off this match, but it does mean he can probably rotate a few guys out for this one. Anyway, actual observations: Brugge have a great midfield, led by the very experienced Hans Vanaken, who will operate a bit like their Ødegaard. I’m a fan of Raphael Onyedika and newly signed Aleksandar Stanković as the double-pivot behind him, and have written about both here. Tzolis is a great winger for Belgium as well. The question for them will just be how Belgium compares to England, which probably isn’t great, based on the Villa tie (for which they had more talent and experience overall).
Olympiacos home
Manager: Jose Luis Mendilibar
Last season finish: 1st in the Greek Super League, EL round of 16 (lost to Bodø/Glimt)
Key players: Panagiotis Retsos, Yusuf Yazıcı, Ayoub El Kaabi
Key additions: Gabriel Strefezza, Rémy Cabella, Lorenzo Scipioni, Diogo Nascimento
Key losses: Charalampos Kostoulas, Kristoffer Velde
Notes: I bet this one made Arteta smile, for a couple of reasons. Of course, they gave him a good European humiliation in his first full season as Arsenal manager, eliminating the Gunners in the knockout round of the Europa League. But also, Edu works for Olympiacos owner Evangelos Marinakis now! So, a couple of fun angles.
Overall this should be a fun match for Remembering Some Guys. I would expect Olympiacos to come into this to win, so Arteta’s selection will be largely based on the timing of the match, but Arsenal should have the talent to win this at a relative trot.
Slavia Praha away
Manager: Jindřich Trpišovský
Last season finish: 1st in the Czech First League, 30th in the Europa League
Key players: Tomáš Holeš, Lukáš Provod, Vasil Kušej
Key additions: Michal Sadílek, Youssoupha Sanyang
Key losses: El Hadji Malick Diouf (thanks, Irons!)
Notes: It’s good to get two managers who prefer to play a more progressive 4-2-3-1 style from pot 3, but don’t mistake Slavia’s formation for openness. Slavia scored more than 2 goals per league match last season, but they also defended well, allowing only 11 goals in 30 matches. They were certainly not to open up in Europa League play, and clubs like Athletic Club did struggle to create against them. Given the nature of the match, the fact that it’s away and that it’s freaking Arsenal coming in, I expect a raucous atmosphere for this one. Add it all up, and you could have a real trap game here. Fans will underestimate this one, but Arsenal should take it seriously.
Kairat Almaty home
Manager: Rafael Urazbakhtin
Last season finish: 1st in the Kazakh Premier League
Key players: Aleksandr Martynovich, Egor Sorokin, Temirlan Anarbekov
Key additions: ?
Key losses: ?
Notes: What a story these guys are. Celtic should have taken care of business here, they were in control enough to do so, frankly, but just didn’t do it. The thing I care most about is that Arsenal avoided this as an away match. Getting this at home should provide some minutes for some of the second-unit guys, and hopefully a relatively easy path to three points.
Athletic Club away
Manager: Ernesto Valverde
Last season finish: 4th in La Liga, EL semifinal (lost to Manchester United)
Key players: Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet, Unai Simón, Iñaki Williams
Key additions: Jesús Areso, Robert Navarro
Key losses: None
Notes: Man, Arsenal just can’t find a way to get Nico Williams to the carpet, can they? Bilbao didn’t give a good account of themselves against United in the EL semi-final, but they were clearly firing at less than full capacity. Both of the Williams brothers missed the second leg, which they entered 3-0 down, and personal favorite Oihan Sancet missed the first leg, which they played very well before the red card for a DOGSO red card led to the loss. That said, I still found them to be middling in Europa League play at best, for instance struggling to do anything at home against Slavia Prague above in their own stadium. They largely were able to turn matches into slogs, and occasionally — like against Roma — get bailed out through brilliant moments from Nico. It’s a strange situation when your Pot 4 away match might be more difficult on paper than your Pot 2 away match, but Arsenal again have the quality to win this — they’ll just have to execute like they did at home against them.
Overall thoughts
You’ve probably read by now that Arsenal have one of the easiest draws to get through the league stage, and I’d agree with that. Arsenal have avoided particularly difficult matches, while getting their most difficult opponents at home. Last season’s league stage took 16 points to get through to the top 8 and I could see that shifting ever so slightly downward if larger clubs struggle less this season — for example, no City or PSG battling just to make it through. With 15 points as a kind of minimum, this is a fixture list where you should be expecting Arsenal to advance.
Other winners and losers
I read somewhere that Chelsea had one of the easiest paths forward, but I’m not sure I agree here. Once you remove the Kairat gimme, they’ll travel to Azerbaijan to face Qarabag, while also getting away matches against Napoli, Atalanta and Bayern Munich. Letting Bayern and Inter cancel each other out, I’d rather have Arsenal’s three away matches by a mile. Barca at home won’t be easy, but the other three should be.
Conversely, I saw Bayern’s eight matches framed as the hardest, and disagree there, too! PSG and Arsenal away is a very tough draw, but I see six matches beyond that where Bayern should be the favorite, with Chelsea home as the most difficult by about 50 miles. Two Belgian clubs and a Portuguese club at home, PSV and Pafos away. It would be a disaster if Bayern aren’t on at least 15 points by the end of January.
It’s a brutal league stage for Eintracht Frankfurt. They looked young and naïve against Spurs with Ekitike still there, now they’ll have to visit Barca, Atleti and Napoli and host Liverpool, Atalanta, Tottenham and Galatasaray? I could see this going like RB Leipzig’s league stage last season.
Liverpool and City each have their difficult away Pot 1 match, but I don’t see any excuses for either club not to do well here. Dortmund, Leverkusen, Napoli, Galatasaray is a good home draw for City, with none that really strike me as a side that would actually cause them a lot of damage. Beyond Real Madrid, I’m not sure anyone can even touch the Reds at Anfield.
Newcastle got probably as tough a draw as they could have from the first pot, with Barca home and PSG away. After that, though, I think this is a draw that a Champions League PL side should be able to handle. Leverkusen are minus so much of what made them special under Xabi Alonso - including Xabi himself - while Marseille are a ticking time bomb, PSV are still a Dutch club and Athletic Club are a level or two below the PL. Advance or disappoint.
Of the “big” clubs, I probably lean either Atleti or Spurs for toughest draw. PSG away won’t be easy for Thomas Frank’s guys, and while Dortmund is probably the easiest pot 1 club, I think it’s still a tough one for them. Bodø/Glimt is the type of atmosphere you underestimate at your own demise, and Spurs struggled there for an hour last season. Frankfurt are on the easier end of Pot 2, but Monaco are arguably the toughest pot 4 draw possible. For Diego Simeone’s club, it’s pretty simple: He’s got to play at Anfield AND the Emirates.