Pulled back into last year comparisons
Pulled back into last year comparisons
Just this one last time.
I keep saying I want to be done with comparing last year to this season and let things stand on their own but things keep pulling me back.
I was already thinking about this but what really put me over the line here is the latest discussion on Match of the Day and Monday Night Football showing graphics the difference between the team’s performance this year and last year.
At the highest level things look pretty close to even to perhaps better. Arsenal’s goals per match are down 9% from last season, but the goals allowed are down 27% with the goal difference up 8%. The xG is the same story and actually better looking.
However…
The big elephant in the room is that Arsenal’s numbers this season is boosted by 6 penalty shots. I don’t think the penalties were lucky or really even soft but that is a big number (already 2 more than whole of last season) and they can be a very random thing.
That is not ideal and there is I think there is valid worry about this. That doesn’t mean that things are going bad at Arsenal or anything but the penalties are certainly boosting a team. Arsenal have gotten 1.4 penalties per 100 touches in the box this season, which is the highest in the league and well above the 0.6 per 100 touches average. Going forward, the team should probably not expect to have the same kind of fortune and if they want to challenge for a title boosting the numbers will probably be required.
What is happening with the team is also something that has a big tactical component; how Arsenal are approaching games, and how the opponents are lining up to face them has changed (with the Champions League providing a perfect example of that). That deserves a deeper look but today I am going to look at how the individual players have changed from last season.
Strikers
Last season Arsenal got very good production from their strikers, perhaps you would want more goals but the overall play put Arsenal among the best from the position.
This season, the numbers are not quite as good.
Goals are up, but basically everything else this season is down. Most of this can probably be explained by the main striker having played so little this season, and when he has played, he has given a production that is well off his best.
For all the handwringing about Jesus last year and not finishing as well as you would like he still put up all-around production that put him among the best forwards in the world.
This year, in his very small sample that has been limited by injury, it is not nearly as good. I don’t have major worries yet that he can’t get back to this level, especially given his production in the Champions League, but he does need to stay on the field to help provide that impact.
The striker that has played most of the minutes this season is Eddie Nketiah.
Say what you will about him, and there has been no shortage of digital ink, words spoken and videos shot doing so, but he has been mostly fine for a backup player.
In an ideal world, he would not be playing a lot of really meaningful minutes, I don’t think anyone would disagree with that and in the time he has played, he hasn’t really surprised anyone with “not a starter for a title-challenger” level performances.
Wingers
Arsenal’s wide players at the ones that make fans excited about the future, but so far this season, they have also been the area where the difference between their performance has diverged the most.
Shots and goals, way down,
Key passes and xA, down.
The direct goal production from wide is a major gap right now.
Martinelli is one of my favorite players but he has had the biggest drop off.
He has lost a shot every other match this year, losing a bit more than half of his expected goals from last year (0.3 to 0.13), and seeing his average shot quality fall from 12% to 7%.
Why this is happening is probably worth a deeper dive but at a high level right now it isn’t for lack of touches, with him having a higher volume, with more in the box this season. His ability and need to feed off of Gabriel Jesus might be the biggest factor but I would need to look deeper to have this be more than a hypothesis, it remains probably the biggest red flag right now.
The stats from last year include both his time at Brighton and Arsenal but overall he’s been roughly the same or better this year. He has been an excellent pick up for Arsenal.
Saka’s goals are down a bit from last year but he’s continuing to make the step towards being a true super star.
Midfield
Midfield is the area where the change has been the biggest for Arsenal, with two of three starters gone or having been injured.
The change is apparent.
Arsenal’s passing and general play from midfield is safer and lacking progression. Progressive passes, progressive carries, key passes, xA and xG are all down from last season.
What has replaced it has been a platform and screen that has brought control and an elite defense. The trade-off might not be perfectly balanced but I am not certain it has been worse.
Of the players that are still here from last year, Martin Odegaard is surprisingly looking like a very different player.
Last year he took the jump to looking like one of, if not the best midfielders in the League. This year has been just good. His numbers have all taken a hit (except for defense) and it has been felt by the team.
Some of this is not unexpected, he had 15 goals last season from 10 expected. He is a good ball striker, but he probably wasn’t going to remain a 50% above his expected finisher.
What is not expected is the drop off in his creative numbers. He has gone from 2.2 key passes to just 1.7, he has gone from 2.6 passes completed in the box (excluding set plays) to 1.9, and 7.7 progressive passes to 5.9.
His creative numbers before were not an anomaly of finishing with a track record of excellent production but this year it is not coming off. Like Martinelli, it would be really nice to dig into things deeper and try and make a guess what is happening because outside of maybe he was playing hurt (maybe the hip injury was worse than reported), I don’t have a good guess what was and is going on here.
Declan Rice has been a phenomenal signing for Arsenal. It is hard for a player with his price and expectations to come in and just meet them and well he has done exactly that.
There has been a bit of an adjustment and difference to how he plays the defensive midfield role at Arsenal but there isn’t anything but nits to pick with him.
The last player we will look at today is Kai Havertz.
I wrote about him just a couple of weeks ago so I don’t have too much to add here and it feels like the vibes are already doing a shift on him.
It is amazing what a couple of goals and a really good performance can do for a player.
He’s still a very different player to what Granit Xhaka was last year but even if what we saw from him to start the year was the low point of the season, it is not too bad. There is still further growth to hit the expectations but at least the recent trend is moving in the right direction.
Round 14 Premier League Odds
No early Premier League match this week so it is straight into the 7am (3pm) kickoffs.
The one I (and I think most readers here) care about is Arsenal vs Wolves.
Wolves are an interesting team. They don’t look great this year but they have also gotten some of the worst refereeing luck. Their schedule is also very weirdly unbalanced, they have played the top teams all at home and the middle and bottom teams all away from home.
Overall this year they have played a bit better than I would have expected and look like an improved team from one that looked to have seriously gone stale. Arsenal are big favorites here and hopefully can take all three points to stay top of the table for another week.
Here are the other 7am matches.
The first of the later kickoffs is clash for teams near the bottom.
It is interesting to see Everton as road favorites but they have played really well. Even last week they got beat by 3 goals but played at a level where if they had pulled off a win it would not have been a shock. They are in a tough position with the point deduction but have also played well enough for it not to matter, as long as the luck doesn’t continue to bite them.
The late, late match Saturday is a tasty one.
Manchester United are a mess, but yet they have the best form in the Premier League over the last 2 months, with 5 wins and 1 loss. In that run of matches they have just 1 win by more than 1 goal, and 1 win by more than 1 xG. It is one of the more smoke and mirrors runs of good form that you will ever see.
I don’t even know what to say about Newcastle, they look strong on the metrics but a very pronounced home/away split, and some bad performances in the Champions League (against good teams). They are also depleted with injury making trying to get a read on them even harder.
My simulation and team ratings still really like them so maybe they will be alright and their current 7th is just a false position.
Sunday gives us a big batch of early kickoffs with the Europa and Confrence League in full swing.
The pick of the matches is probably Chelsea vs Brighton but I am also interested in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, given Arsenal’s date with their former manager on the horizon.
The last match of the weekend is one that there is no bad outcome here for Arsenal fans.
If Spurs win or draw, that is a major help to the title odds, if Spurs lose that is 4 in a row for them and it is funny to see them go from really feeling themselves to that.
My gut says that this could get ugly. Ange Postecoglou plays his way and that could leave lots of space for the attackers on Manchester City to exploit.
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Thanks for reading, have a wonderful weekend. 🤠 Yee Haw.