Question time! Mudryk or nothing, who's going down, misleading stats and more

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Now, let’s answer some questions!

Q: What is the potential Arsenal equivalent of the Rudy Gobert trade?

A: If you don’t follow the NBA, my Minnesota Timberwolves this past offseason took a big swing, sending five players and five draft picks to the Utah Jazz for star center Rudy Gobert. It was a move that carried a lot of risk, because of the heavy draft capital involved, as well as Gobert’s age and positional fit alongside franchise forward Karl-Anthony Towns. It’s so far been an up-and-down season for Minnesota, with the chemistry looking bad at times, but the team is currently in position to make the NBA Playoffs despite Towns having missed a couple of months of action.

There’s not a true equivalent to the NBA’s trade system in European football, nor is there an amateur draft, so it’s a bit hard to make a truly comparable move. So what I’ll go for is a move that would be 1) really expensive, 2) risky from a long-term perspective and 3) bring in a questionable fit that could mess with chemistry.

The comp I’ll make: Signing Wilfried Zaha from Crystal Palace. Now, Wilf wouldn’t demand much of a fee in January (although that idea has been poo-pooed by Fab Romano) and would be free in summer. But as a longtime PL star, you can expect he’d demand a lot of wages and serious playing time, which could be a long-term hindrance to Bukayo Saka and/or Gabriel Martinelli. Like Gobert, it’s a questionable system fit with the existing pieces and doesn’t exactly give Arsenal what they need in an additional attacker. And like Gobert, the player is nearing the point where the age curve is likely to strike.

Q: Would you rather Arsenal pay Shakhtar’s full valuation for Mudryk or buy no-one at all in January?

A: I’m a very analytical guy, and often try to explain why players are or are not worth the money, but I’m a fan first. Arsenal do need another forward, for both the long and short term. I have my reservations about how much this player helps with the title chase, but if these are the choices, back up the Brinks truck. I’d take it as a sign from ownership that this wouldn’t be a move that would stifle others in the future if they decided to meet the demands of Shakhtar Donetsk, crazy as they are.

Q: Why do you think Arsenal have been so sure they should prioritize another forward instead of a Partey alternative?

A: Two words: Mohamed Elneny. He’s no one’s favorite, but Pyramid Pirlo has been through it with Arsenal. He’s played a key role in some big wins over the past couple of seasons (both with and without Partey). While he is also a limiter, playing him with inverted fullbacks can cover up some of his deficits.

Elneny will no doubt be replaced, probably even by summer. But after Saka and Martinelli, Arsenal basically have one experienced wide attacker, and that’s Emile Smith Rowe, whose future may not even be on the wing. Fabio Vieira is at his best in the half-spaces, not the touchline, and Marquinhos just isn’t ready. Reiss Nelson doesn’t seem like part of the project after June 30. The deficit on the wing between Arsenal and comparable clubs is just much more stark than it is at DM.

Q: Which Premier League teams will get relegated?

A: The bottom of the table is an absolute horror show. 13th through 20th are separated by a mere 5 points, and it’s honestly tough to know who’s going to snap out of their poor form.

Two I do expect to be fine, probably after sacking their managers: West Ham and Leicester. They both have too much talent to actually be relegated, as dreadful as they’ve both been at times.

For predictions, I feel pretty safe taking Bournemouth down. They’ve allowed the most goals by a healthy margin and are fourth bottom on xG allowed. Next, I lean Nottingham Forest. They’ve nicked some great results, then followed them with complete nightmare performances. My head tells me this won’t actually happen, but I’ll tab Everton third. They’ve been arguably the worst side in the league this season and I’m not sure they have the star power to actually fix it.

Here’s the leading tackler among CBs in the Premier League.

Q: What’s the most misleading stat in the growing data field of football?

A: There are definitely a few that I think get used too much. Every time I see anything talking about a player attempting the most passes or completing the most passes, I cringe. But I think maybe the most misleading might be tackles.

Particularly with centre-backs, tackles are taken completely the wrong way. There’s more than one way to be a great defender, and yes tackles can be part of it. But you don’t have to make a lot of tackles to be a great CB, and in some cases it’s actually more of a red flag. I’ve said before that CB stats are the devil, and that’s a big reason why.

Q: Who is your favourite non-Arsenal player in the Premier League?

A: I appreciate a tidy, creative, hard-working attacking midfielder, so I’ll say Bernardo Silva. I’ve really come to appreciate him over the past couple of seasons.

Q: I’ve been desperate for someone to do some numbers work on how many more chances Arsenal are creating off rebounds this year.

A: Firstly, that’s not a question…lol.

This will be an imperfect measure, but I’d turn to shot-creating actions from shots. That will tell us how many times someone has taken a shot that led to another shot, aka a rebound.

So far this season, Arsenal have 36 SCA via shots, or 2.11 per 90 minutes. That puts them third in the Premier League this season, behind Liverpool and City.

Over the past several seasons, Arsenal ranked: 4th with 1.74, 13th with 1.18, 6th with 1.26.

So yep, there’s an increase there for sure!

Q: If Mudryk added the same stats p90 as Pepe’s first season at Arsenal on top of how we’re already performing would he be a good signing at >70m?

A: In Pépé’s first season at The Emirates, he contributed 0.22 goals per 90 minutes (63rd percentile) and 0.27 assists p90 (85th percentile), compared to 63rd and 78th percentile ranks in xG and xA, respectively.

Assuming Mudryk came in the end of January, I’d estimate probably about 15 appearances totaling something like 700 minutes over the home stretch, which would give him about 2 goals and 2 assists.

It doesn’t sound like a lot, but I really wouldn’t expect many starts from him as he takes time to adjust to Arsenal and the Premier League. The short answer is that no, that’s not good for a £70m+ signing, but any Mudryk deal would demand evaluation over multiple seasons, not just the end of this one.

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There were other questions, but this was all I had time for. Thank you everyone for participating, and subscribe to Cannon Stats for premium analysis going forward!