Statistically Comparing Arsenal goalkeepers to others in the Premier League

The summer transfer window could see a shake up at the goal keeper position around the Premier League. Liverpool look to be ready to break the world record transfer fee to bring in Alisson from Roma, Thibaut Courtois looks to be headed to Real Madrid (who might be back in for Petr Cech) and Arsenal have brought in Bernd Leno from Bayer Leverkusen.

So how do the Arsenal goal keepers compare to all of these guys plus the guys that are being replaced?

This is a difficult task to try to undertake because goalkeeping skills are something that is very rudimentary measured. What I will do here is to use my SoT xG model to look at the shots that were on frame and compare that to the actual goals allowed by each player to get an idea of how many goals each player save above or below expected.

It isn’t perfect and a season is probably not a big enough sample to make definite conclusions on but this is the data that I have so I will do the best that I can with what is at my disposal.

Petr Cech

This isn’t nearly as bad I thought that it would be. There was a shaky period in the middle of the season but other than that he let in about as much as expected.

Bernd Leno

That looks like a roller coaster season but Leno ends on the positive side for the season. With rumors that Cech might be going back to Chelsea Leno might get the starting job from day one and that might not be a bad move for Arsenal.

David DeGea

DeGea was the gold standard of goal keepers last season. He saved a ridiculous amount of goals for Manchester United. He disappointed for Spain but I’d still rate him as one of the best in the game at stopping shots.

Alisson

If you are going to go out and spend big getting one of the best is important. My stats seem to agree that Alisson is very good. Liverpool seem to have done some really good business this summer and look to be a formidable team.

Łukasz Fabiański

Fabiański was relegated with Swansea but looking at the stats he really did his part to fight to stay up. The former Arsenal man really seemed to blossom in Wales, it will be interesting how he fits in at West Ham.

Loris Karius

Some up and down matches from the Liverpool keeper.

Simon Mignolet

Not a surprise he lost the starting job midway through the season.

Thibaut Courtois

This wasn’t the best year from Courtois, I still think that he is very good but maybe he is flattered by a solid defense in front of him.

Hugo Lloris

Lloris is one that I think has a better reputation than he deserves. He seems to have some bad errors in him, I don’t think he is that great at distributing the ball (even though he gets that reputation because he sweeps the ball well) and isn’t anything special at shot stopping.

Ederson

Ederson rated really well before a couple bad games at the end of the season pushed him into the negatives. I think he was brought in more for his on the ball skills and Manchester City will be happy as long as he stops even slightly more goals than Claudio Bravo did.

Jordan Pickford

A lot of the damage was done in the opening run of games where Everton were terrible. It is hard to say how much of that was Pickford’s fault and how much should rest on the defense forcing him into bad situations. Overall I think that he is a bright prospect for the future.

That’s it for today, I don’t feel confident drawing major conclusions from this; but it sure is fun to take a look at where everybody falls on the goals saved scales.

This post originally ran on The Short Fuse