Stats Scouting: Eberechi Eze

This got us dreaming at the start of the window and it didn't look like it was going to happen. That is until all of a sudden it did. Let's dig deep into the numbers about Arsenal's new attacker.

Wednesday was a rollercoaster ride of a day for the emotions.

It started with the disappointing news that Kai Havertz had injured his knee and that it was bad enough that the team was looking to go back into the market for cover. That’s not a good sign and some of the early reports are suggesting he will be on the sideline for at least 12 weeks.

It ended with this bombshell of news:

Arsenal have an agreement in principle with Crystal Palace to sign Eberechi Eze.

The deal is worth in the region of the expired £68million (€78m, $91m) release clause, matching the level of fee Tottenham Hotspur were prepared to pay, and personal terms have been agreed.

Arsenal’s interest in Eberechi Eze didn’t come out of the blue, this first was reported by David Ornstein back on June 30th, where he was high among the options in attack that Arsenal were looking at this summer.

This got us dreaming of what could be with the player. We had ideas of Arsenal going BIG in attack, it wasn’t just a striker, it wasn’t just a striker and another attacker, it was THREE attackers! It was especially the case with this line at the end of the update from Ornstein that drove what at the time seemed like peak transfer hope:

It is unclear whether a sale might be needed to facilitate such a move, but this situation is separate to their pursuit of a striker and left-winger.

I let myself get carried away for a bit after that news but only for a bit as I started to look at the number of players that Arsenal had in attack and the lack of solid outgoings, and it just didn’t seem realistic to be able to have all of these players in the team at the same time. It just isn’t done.

It turns out all we needed to do was wait a bit longer and our dreams for this player would actually come true; Arsenal would actually do the unthinkable and unprecedented and sign three big money attackers in a single window.

So let’s dig into what Arsenal are getting with Eze, starting where we always start looking at his latest season radar and percentile ranks.

Eberechi Eze - Crystal Palace 2024-2025 Creative Midfield Template, Second Striker Template, and overall Crab Cake Graphic

This is a good-looking set of radars but they aren’t exactly “change our world” numbers that he produced last season, nor does it match the vibes that this transfer has produced in the fanbase. We he does have however with his play, is that special je ne sais quoi that makes you forget things for a few minutes.

Enough preamble let's get into the nitty gritty on the player and what he can bring to Arsenal.

Warning this is a very deep dive and one of the longest posts I have written but I think it is a very good way of getting an understanding of what this player can do for Arsenal.

Team Comparisons: Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

We always start with a comparison between the teams before anything else because how the teams play will affect the numbers that the players produce. It is a bit less of an issue for attacking players than it is for midfielders and especially defenders, but it is still a factor and something that is helpful to understand and to put context around the environment that the data was produced in.

On my team ratings Crystal Palace were/are a good team but they are far closer to the midtable pack than they are to Arsenal.

Looking at the attacking radar for the team, there are a couple of pretty obvious differences that jump out compared with Arsenal. They produced similar level of xG to Arsenal but did so in a different way. They played a much more transitional style that focused less on dominating space and creating through volume, instead favoring looking to generate 5-7 good transition attacks per match that they could turn into 3-5 really dangerous shots.

We have a sample size of two matches so far this season, but it does look like there might be a change at Arsenal tactically to try and adapt or at least add the option to play a more direct/transitional game at Arsenal. Many of the signings that Arsenal have made this season have come from teams that played and excelled in that more transitional style and maybe this Eze addition is another step towards that adaption.

The defensive numbers for Crystal Palace were not as good as they are at Arsenal, but we are talking about an attacking signing so that is less of a concern. Crystal Palace aren’t as aggressive pressing and generally played a bit more in their own half than Arsenal and that could be something for Eze to adapt to.

Style wise Crystal Palace are a very different team than Arsenal. We already knew that from the production graphics, but it really jumps out here, especially the difference in speed and directness that they played.

The difference in the tactics will be something that we will want to hold in our mind but also think about how this could be with the aim of moving towards something that favors his strengths.

Shooting

Before we get going too far, we are going to do the comparisons to central attacking midfielders primarily for all of these stats. We will have more in depth discussion later on the different positional options for him but last season that is where he played and that is the group of players that I am going to compare him against.

Let’s start with last season’s high-level numbers for shots:

The standout aspect of Eze's game last season was his shooting, proving he's a player who can consistently deliver volume. He took 102 shots last season in total, 6th most in the Premier League, he had 56 from regular play which ranked 15th, 8 from counter attacks which was tied for 16th, and 36 shots from set plays which was by far the most of any player in the League (next highest was 27).

There are also a couple of pretty big negatives here on the graphic with the on-target percentage and the post shot xG added but that will be covered in more depth in the finishing section.

Over the last three seasons, the positives have remained consistent, while the concerns have become far less troubling.

Let’s break this down a bit more starting with the shot map from last season.

Eze’s volume is something that Arsenal lack, and it matches the pattern of the other attackers that Arsenal have added this summer. Eze took 3.5 shots per 90 last season and that is added to Noni Madueke’s 3.5 per 90, and Victor Gyokeres’ 4.1 per 90.

Unlike the other two who still who combined excellent volume with above average quality (Gyokeres, 15.6 yards on average for his shot distance with 0.17 xG per shot. Madueke, 14.4 yards on average for his shot distance with 0.12 xG per shot), Eze is a player that is not afraid to attempt a speculative shot from distance.

55.8% of Eze’s shots came from outside of the box and that contributed to him having just an average chance quality and among players with at least 50 shots in the Premier League he had the third longest average distance.

via Statshead.com

Taking longer shots is not inherently a bad thing (even if they are less likely to turn into goals than other shots), especially considering that Arsenal really could do with more shots in their attack full stop. Arsenal averaged just 10.3 open play shots last season (5th), and they need to add a shot and half more this season to catch the numbers that Chelsea and Manchester City had last seasons, and they need to add three shots per match to be even with Liverpool.

Working for high quality shots is a noble goal, but it can be assisted and made easier if the defense also has to respect that players will be willing to let loose on a shot from outside of the box as well.

One of the things to consider as we look through this data is where he receives the ball on passes that turn into shots. Here is what that looks like from last season:

He’s at his most threatening in the middle of the pitch which shouldn’t be surprising because most players are, but it might be a bit of a question if he will be able to get the same level of shot volume starting wider (if that is what is asked of him). Eze was not a player that received wide and was able to generate shooting opportunities with just two shots and 0.05 coming from passes received outside of the width of the box extended.

When comparing Eze to other advanced midfielders, he comes close to reaching that elite high-volume level for shooting and stands well above both current Arsenal advanced midfielders.

That’s a decent area to be in, you’d love to be either a true elite volume player or more towards the upper right combining high volume and high average quality but given the production in Arsenal’s midfield, his current production would address a clear weakness.

Doing a quick look how this same view looks but using wide players his overall production doesn’t stand out nearly as well.

Bukayo Saka produces more volume at a similar average quality and Gabriel Martinelli lags on the volume but make up for it with his average quality. Here Eze ends up looking not that far off of Leandro Trossard.

In the Crystal Palace attack, Eze played a pivotal role. This is another area where team effects can have an impact, the level of usage from one team to the next does not always translate. He led the team in open play shots and trailed just the main striker Jean-Philippe Mateta for expected goals.

Last season for Crystal Palace, he contributed to over a quarter of the team's total shots (26%) and generated 21% of their xG while on the pitch.

At Arsenal, Saka was the primary player responsible for generating shooting volume, but the burden was more evenly distributed across the team. Last season, the xG was heavily focused on Kai Havertz, but that is likely to change as he appears set for an extended spell on the sidelines due to a knee injury and Arsenal have made some drastic changes to the attacking personel.

For his Premier League career his shooting numbers have moved up a level the last three seasons as he has come into his prime production years. The 2022/23 season was his breakout year, reaching star level in an attack alongside Michael Olise. However, he experienced a slight decline last season as he shouldered a heavier burden.

Overall, his stats stayed strong, and I’m encouraged by the thought that when he’s not the central focus of a team’s offense, he can perform more efficiently and effectively.

Reviewing the total stats from the last three seasons to gather a larger sample still highlights him as an excellent shooter.

The key aspects we focus on with shooting are hold up well in the larger sample size: a great volume of shots and solid overall locations.

One of the red flags in last season’s data was his post shot xG added but there is comfort in the larger sample where his has gone from negative to a bit positive.

Post Shot xG Added is a useful stat to estimate finishing performance and shot placement. It compares the quality of the chance (xG) from the shot's location to the quality of the finish. Post shot xG evaluates the likelihood of a save based on where the ball is placed within the goal frame. A higher value indicates the player is adding value with their shooting accuracy, while a lower value means they are losing value.

We will cover this deeper below in the finishing section.

Finishing

Last season Eze had 7 goals from nearly 10 expected goals. He finished the season on fire but had a cold stretch in the middle of the season where he took nearly 75 shots and scored just one goal. Just perfect for Arsenal right?