STONKS! Setting the price for each Arsenal player
I have been wanting to do this for a while so let's put some relative prices on each player
Over the last month, I have been talking about going through and setting a baseline for Arsenal players as I do my stock rising and falling after each match in the Instant Reaction posts that I write.
Today I am finally going to do that.
I guess first I should give a bit on how I am setting these prices. Generally, stocks are forward-looking estimates of a company’s value; for the Arsenal players, I am going to use the idea of a player’s value to the team over the rest of the season, so that might mean some players are lower because their value is more than one season in the future or perhaps they are injured and out limiting what they can provide this year.
My first thought is that a price of 100 is equal to a “Premier League Average Starter” quality for the rest of the season. So values above 100 are good, but below I don’t think that they will have much impact this year.
So here is the baseline for Arsenal’s players with Premier League minutes
The Top Tier
Gabriel Jesus - 175, his injury has dropped him a bit but he is still the most important and impactful player in this Arsenal team right now. It looks like he will be back in March sometime so there is still a good amount of time left for him to make a big impact in the stretch run for Arsenal.
Bukayo Saka - 170, he is very good.
Thomas Partey - 170, he might be the more irreplaceable player in the team if everyone was healthy (if another of the forward line went down that might have a bigger impact) and so far this season he has been available and has provided tremendous value. I expect (hope for) that to continue the rest of the year.
Martin Ødegaard - 164, Odegaard has probably seen his stock rise the most of any of the Arsenal players this season (maybe White is there with him). He was always a player with oodles of talent and promise and it feels like this is the season where it has all clicked for him. I think there is still room to grow in this stock over the coming months.
Gabriel Martinelli - 158, he is down a bit from his previous high but he is still a key player for Arsenal.
Oleksandr Zinchenko - 155, when he is healthy he has been very important. I am pushing him down a bit with his future value because I worry he might miss some time and key matches.
Ben White - 155, not quite as valuable as Zinchenko but I have significantly less worry that he will have a niggle that keeps him out for 2-3 weeks. White is certainly up there on the biggest movers this season for me.
Gabriel Magalhães - 150, for the rest of the year I expect him to be the more impactful and steady of Arsenal’s center backs.
Aaron Ramsdale - 150, he is good and very important to Arsenal.
Important Players for Arsenal
William Saliba - 145, he has dropped out of the top tier for me. I think maybe the expectations for him got TOO high. He is still a young center back in his first year in the Premier League, having bumps and dips in form isn’t unusual and I do expect he will be better going forward but maybe have a bit more room for some errors that might happen along the way.
Eddie Nketiah - 140, this rating is sort of a reflection of the squad building and not necessarily thinking that Eddie is better than the people he is above in this list (remember I am thinking value and impact). With the Jesus injury, he has been thrust into the starting role and he has held things together, I think that even when Jesus returns he will play a key role in helping to manage the minutes that are played in the front line. He will be key for the second half of the season.
Granit Xhaka - 135, I think he’s also lost some value from where he was earlier in the season. He’s done well as an eight but I do think that his impact hasn’t quite been the same and perhaps teams are figuring out what he wants to do now that there is film out there on him in this position. Still important but perhaps with less future impact.
Takehiro Tomiyasu - 135, He might be the best one on one defender at the club currently, plus he adds a ton of value through his ability to play in multiple spots across the back line. The only thing that is limiting his value is that he seems to get the little strains and niggles that keep him available for the manager every week.
Kieran Tierney - 130, He has been displaced as the starter but I still expect that he will have a part to play for Arsenal going forward, especially considering Zinchenko has a tendency to miss matches.
Emile Smith Rowe - 120, This was a tough one to price, he is down quite a bit from his highs of last season but there is still an opportunity for him to provide a ton of value. I hate to say it but there is also the chance that he ends up falling further, especially if Arsenal brings in an attacker or two in January and it takes further time for him to regain his fitness.
The Fringe
Mohamed Elneny - 100, the guy that we hope not to have to play in pivotal minutes but the guy we would choose if it came to it. He doesn’t do flashy stuff (which limits the upside) but he is also one of the safer players (which really pushes up his floor). I hope he doesn’t have to make an impact this year.
Fábio Vieira - 100, after not coming on when there were basically no other options against Newcastle I think it is fair to say that right now he isn’t seen as a player that expecting too much from might be foolish. I think he will get minutes but I think his impact at the current moment will be pretty peripheral.
Rob Holding - 85, he might be a closer to help seal matches but that is about it.
Reiss Nelson - 75, if he hadn’t gotten hurt in the pre-midseason I think he would have gotten a chance to make an impact. Now he is probably going to be relegated to a deeper bench role and perhaps minutes in a cup match (if he is healthy enough). If Arsenal brings in an attacker that just pushes him further down the list.
Sambi Lokonga - 75, I don’t expect him to play any meaningful Premier League minutes going forward.
Matt Turner - 75, I don’t think he will play outside of the FA Cup or maybe the Europa League (even there Arteta might choose Ramsdale)
Marquinhos - 50, I don’t think he will play in Premier League minutes, he will probably feature in the FA Cup but that’s it. Could end up on a loan if Arsenal get an attacker in.
Cédric Soares - 30, this stock is low because I expect he will be with Fulham before the end of the month so he really won’t make much of an impact on Arsenal going forward beyond maybe helping to free room in the wage bill or help fund some transfer business.
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So that is my list for now. Did I miss anyone? What am off on?
Let me know in the comments.
Editors Note (lol like there are editors here): An earlier version left out Takehiro Tomiyasu’s rating. The post has been updated to include that. We regret the error.