That match was an emotional gut punch, and you never want a gut punch that you have to live with for two weeks because of an International Break.
This was the first time that Arsenal have dropped points from a winning position (they also fought back from a losing position) but while it was frustrating to not win, overall I came away impressed with Arsenal here.
I know that there will be a lot of people down after this one but it still has some good positives. Let’s break it down.
Sunderland vs Arsenal: The Graphics
Sunderland vs Arsenal: The Debrief
6 - Shots for Sunderland allowed by Arsenal, this is tied for the fewest by Sunderland this season and it is the 10th straight time this season that Arsenal have held an opponent to fewer than 10 shots.
0.79 - Expected goals on my model for Sunderland, going into this match Sunderland were averaging 1.1 xG per match. This is the 10th straight match this season that Arsenal have held the opposition to under 1 expected goal.
2 - Shots on target for Sunderland, they averaged 2.8 per match going into facing Arsenal. This is only the 5th time that Arsenal have allowed more than 1 shot on target this season.
2 - Goals scored by Sunderland
Sometimes this is just how the game goes. The term “A footballing” is a thing for this exact match.
It’s a testament to Arsenal’s defensive quality, that it takes a pretty big error to see the ball hit the back of the net but that is what it takes these days to score against Arsenal.
Arsenal’s defensive performance overall wasn’t that bad, in fact it was very much in line with what Arsenal have been doing all season. Looking at it stacked up against everything else the team has done, and this is far from an outlier in everything except for the goals allowed.
This is just the 13th time in the Premier League that Arsenal have given up multiple goals on 0.8 xG or lower under Mikel Arteta. This is out of 127 total matches in the Premier League (with 71 clean sheets).
It’s a bummer to see the clean sheet record end but it always was at some point. I just with it had been a garbage time goal with Arsenal on their way to a multiple goal romp.
Arsenal fight back well but they kind of threw away a half here
All stats here will be from the start of the second half through the 75th minute:
9 - Shots for Arsenal, for 0.9 expected goals. Arsenal had 9 shots in the other 60 minutes.
4 - Shots on target. Arsenal had 4 shots on target in the other 60 minutes.
2 - Shots allowed, for 0.15 xG.
15 - Touches in the box for Arsenal. Arsenal had 18 touches in the box in the other 60 minutes.
26 - Touches within 25 yards of goal. Arsenal had 26 in the other 60 minutes.
121 - Final third touches. They had 179 in the other 60 minutes.
2 - Touches in the box for Sunderland. They had 14(!) in the other 60 minutes of this match. Sunderland had just 3 within 25 yards of Arsenals’ goal (17 in the other periods) and 15 touches in the final third (79 in the other periods)
The performance from the start of the second half was significantly better and I would put it up among the best 30-minute stretches that Arsenal have had this season. It was the type of play that even with an injury depleted side, gave you optimism that this team has a lot of fight in it and quality.
They upped the speed and really pushed Sunderland back.
In stark contrast, the first half from Arsenal was one of the worst this season.
They did the thing where they felt out the game and seemed to be a bit passive trying to figure things out. That’s not always bad but it’s more of a “big game” tactic in my mind and that was not my view of this match.
The first half also seemed to play much more into Sunderland’s game model, it was a very start stop affair, and it was tough for Arsenal to get any sort of flow going. By my calculations, the ball was in play for just 23 minutes in the first half (even with the 7 minutes added on) and that was probably perfect for Sunderland.
This hasn’t been a major issue for Arsenal this season, the opening periods have been fairly productive:
0-15: 3.5 xG, 1.92 per 90
15-30: 2.3 xG, 1.24 per 90
30-end of 1st half: 3.7 xG, 2.01 per 90
1st half’s: 9.5 xG, 1.7 xG per 90
45-60: 4.7 xG,2.56 per 90
60-75: 2.0 xG, 1.09 per 90
75-end of match: 1.0 xG, 0.53 per 90
Bukayo Saka takes over
3 - Shots, 2 on target, 0.32 xG and 1 goal
45 - Pass Attempts, 38 passes completed for 84.4% pass completion percentage with a 107.7% pass efficiency compared to expected passing
48 - Passes received
13 - Final third passes received, including 5 progressive
7 - Touches in the box with 9 total within 25 yards of goal
1 - Dribble completed, out of 6 attempted
3 - Times fouled
2 - Tackles
3 - Clearances
8 - Ball recoveries
When your team is facing a tough day, you need your big players to step up. This is what Saka did here, and it was a massive positive sign for Arsenal. Since he has can back from his hamstring injury, he has looked like he is playing within himself a bit, giving just enough to be able to make it through.
Everything in this match flowed through him and he put the team on his back to help get them back into this one.
Leandro Trossard has earned his raise
44 - Pass Attempts (7th on Arsenal), 36 passes completed for 81.8% pass completion percentage with a 106.9% pass efficiency compared to expected passing
3 - Progressive Passes
4 - Deep Completions (not Cross)
1 - Key Pass, for 0.18 xA
1 - Shot, 1 on target for 0.02 xG and turned into 1 goal
3 - Progressive Passes Received
12 - Final Third Entry Pass Received
6 - Deep Touches
Since he has joined Arsenal in January of 2022, he ranks 13th among all players in goals plus assists over that period with 58.
He’s been an incredible end product guy, and he’s done it both finishing and setting up for his teammates. He has 34 goals (no penalties to boost it either) which ranks 13th over that span, and 24 assists which ranks 11th.
His goals and assists have been very impactful as well. 26 of his goals and assists have been ones that were potentially points changing type goals where the score was tied or Arsenal were down a goal, adding in ones that helped the team go from +1 to +2 we are getting 38 of his goals here.
His goal here put Arsenal in the lead, and it was so nice that it really ought to have been one that was a winner.
He was the consolation prize and backup plan for when Arsenal didn’t sign Mykhailo Mudryk at the time, but hindsight has borne out that Arsenal ended up signing a player that has been so much more than that.