Super Mikel Arteta's improving Arsenal
Super Mikel Arteta's improving Arsenal
Arsenal are good, they didn't used to be good. Let's explore how they got here.
Arsenal are in first place, having picked up eight points compared to the corresponding fixtures but I think that still misses to a certain extent the full extent of Arsenal’s improvement.
Today I will invite you to come with me on a journey through time looking at the improvement over the last 3 seasons.
Attack
The Arsenal attack is the area where I think the improvement is most apparent. The Arsenal of 2020 and 2021 was pretty dreadful. The passing was slow and ponderous, and it looked very clear that the team seemed to be still learning the system while having talent that wasn’t exactly hand-picked to play the way Arteta wanted.
The Arsenal of 2020-21 were a mediocre attack, they completed passes well meaning that had a bit more of the ball than the other team but were fairly sterlie when it came to actually turning that into goals.
Last season there was a noticeable improvement, especially in the latter half of the year. This was not quite a good attack for a full season but the signs were there that this team was doing good things.
This year, now that is a good-looking radar.
The improvement has been accorss the board here, you might discount some for the level of competition played (16th hardest but not really any easier than the other big teams who have all not played each other) but it is still hard to not be impressed.
The chart above looks at Arsenal over the last three years in attack.
Shots are up, both from open play and from set plays. Arsenal are doing this while also increasing their average shot quality. That is very impressive. Overall it is leading to a large bump in xG and Goals.
The numbers about ball progression back this up. Progressive passes, deep completions are both up as well. Arsenal are looking much more effective at taking the possessions that they have in the final third (that wasn’t too much of a problem before) and turning those into dangerous passes at a much higher rate.
There is also a shift in the style type numbers. Arsenal’s cross numbers are down, dribbles are up, the dribble success rate is up and so are turnovers. I think this is an illustration of a different way to try to break down defenses and one that leads to on average higher quality chances.
Defense
The change in the defense over the last few years is not quite as stark and frankly that is for good reason. The defense in 2020-21 only allowed 39 goals from 44 xG, those are very good numbers and something that when the attack is inept is not your biggest worry as a manager.
The big part was trying to get the system right that allowed the defense to look good but still put attackers in good positions to score. The delicate dance of trade offs.
The 2020-21 team put up good numbers but did so with a very passive approach to defending. Arsenal had some of the lowest tackles, interceptions, blocks and fouls in the league. They were also one of the easiest teams to complete passes against. Arsenal pressed fairly often but the press seemed more like a funnel to keep the ball away from dangerous possessions rather than to directly win the ball back.
The system looked to get compact behind the ball, letting teams have possession in medium-value areas but limiting access to the very good ones. It worked pretty well.
Last season there was some growing pains as the team looked to be more proactive with the press, Arsenal were still on the lower side of looking to actively force turnovers but it was a change from the previous season. Overall the team did well to maintain close to the same level of shot and xG suppression with a system that had a bit more space to exploit.
This season things are really starting to click defensively.
In the attacking third Arsenal are a menace. The pressure numbers are roughly the same as last year but the success rate has gone up, Arsenal are also tackling and fouling significantly more. This has yielded 72 high turnovers (possession gained within 40 meters of goal) good for 4th most and 15 shots good for second most.
Again looking at how things look putting all three seasons on the same scale helps illustrate the subtle improvements.
Arsenal are suppressing significantly more shots from open play, a bit less from set plays but a bit more from fast attacks. Overall this is leading to fewer expected goals and maybe a bit surprisingly a lower expected goal value per shot this season.
Premier League Week 10
There is no early match on Saturday, which is nice for me because I won’t feel guilty sleeping in a bit.
Among the 7am kickoffs, Newcastle vs Brentford is probably the most interesting but I am not sure there is too much to learn from these.
The late match on Saturday will be interesting and could be another test of Antonio Conte’s struggle ball. I expect that Brighton will have more of the ball but they are a good defensive possession team, and that will be a tough test for Spurs and their tactic to rely on the counterattack.
Sunday’s early matches are fine but the big one is obviously Arsenal vs Liverpool.
Enjoy the weekend, if you are in San Francisco I will be at Maggie McGarry's to watch the Liverpool match, so if you are there please come say hi.
🤠 Yee Haw!