The Chase for the Last Champions League Spots

Going through the odds and permutations for the final day of the season

As the Premier League season hurtles toward its less than fully dramatic conclusion on Sunday, the race for the top 5 and a coveted Champions League berth is all that is left to be decided of major consequence.

Liverpool have already clinched the title. Leicester City, Ipswich and Southampton are relegated. Arsenal are all but guaranteed second place and can’t finish lower than third after their win last weekend over Newcastle (there was zero times in my simulation that Arsenal lost by enough and Manchester City won by enough to overcome the 8-point goal difference required here).

That leaves Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest to battle it out for 3rd, 4th, and 5th. With just one point separating 4th-placed Newcastle and 7th-placed Forest, the final day promises at the very least heartbreak for two teams and elation for the other two. Here’s a look at the current standings, the odds for each team to finish in the top 5, and how each team’s matchup on the final day looks.

Current Standings:

• 3rd: Manchester City – 68 points, GD: +26

• 4th: Newcastle United – 66 points, GD: +22

• 5th: Chelsea – 66 points, GD: +20

• 6th: Aston Villa – 66 points, GD: +9

• 7th: Nottingham Forest – 65 points, GD: +13

Top 5 Finish Odds:

• Manchester City: 97% chance

• Newcastle United: 81% chance

• Chelsea: 8/13 58% chance

• Aston Villa: 5/4 39% chance

• Nottingham Forest: 24% chance

One of the fun quirks here is that even though Aston Villa have marginally higher expected points here in the simulation, 67.6 vs 67.4 Chelsea have ever the edge over Unai Emery’s men on goal difference meaning that if they have the same result, they will always be ahead of them on the table.

Final Day Fixtures:

Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea

This is the big head-to-head match that will decide things for both teams.

This is the closest match of any of the ones that has stakes for the top 5 race. It is also the only one with the direct head to head matchup between teams with a chance. It isn’t quite a win and get in but it is the closest one for these teams.

Chelsea Permutations:

• Win

• Draw with a Newcastle loss to Everton

• Draw and Aston Villa draw or loss against United

• Loss and an Aston Villa loss

• Loss and a Newcastle big loss by 3 more goals than Chelsea lose by

Chelsea don’t have to win here but that is the path that they control. It could get interesting watching the scoreboard if they are not winning here on how the other matches are going.

Nottingham Forest Permutations:

• Win and Newcastle fail to win against Everton

• Win and Aston Villa fail to win against United

Forest’s 3 matches where they dropped 7 points in the last four played are really haunting them now. They can win and still not get into the top 5 and that will hurt after spending so much time this season in those spots.

I will be rooting for them even if the path for them is a tough one.

Newcastle United vs. Everton

Everton are going to finish in 13th place and that puts them firmly in the DGAF mode. That only certainly makes this a matchup that is easier than expected here and they are already pretty big favorites to win this one.

Permutations:

• Win

• Draw with a Chelsea and Nottingham Forest draw

• Draw and Aston Villa draw or loss against United

Technically Newcastle can win and not get top 5 but in the real world that is not a practical scenario because it would take Chelsea winning by 3 more goals than them or Aston Villa winning by 14 more goals than them. Chelsea doing it would be hard, Villa doing that just isn’t going to happen, even if that would be by far the funniest outcome to end the season for Manchester United.

Newcastle are in the strongest position among the teams at 66 points here and I think they are the best of these teams where I would feel good backing them to take care of business, especially at home.

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa

This is not a tough one to gauge which team is going to come in fully motivated.

There isn’t anything left in the League for Manchester United to play for in this match besides pride and really how much of that do they have left with how they have finished the season. They just played the Europa League final in Spain on Wednesday where they put up a pretty meek performance in a loss. Do we expect that they will do better in a game where they have really nothing on the line?

Aston Villa have put themselves in a tough spot with earlier dropped points but this is a strong team and I think they are probably better than 50% to win here. They will have all the incentive to win and they will have the rest advantage.

Crazy things have happened in one off matches and there is always the weirdness with Unai Emery teams and all that but it is hard to make a case beyond, sometime weird stuff happens for anything other than an Aston Villa win here.

Permutations:

• Win and Manchester City lose to Fulham

• Win and Newcastle fail to win against Everton

• Win and Chelsea and Nottingham Forest draw

• Draw and Newcastle lose against Everton

There are pathways a plenty for Aston Villa but all of them depend on another team slipping up to create an opportunity for them. The massive deficit on the goal difference over the season is haunting them right now and puts them on the wrong side of all of the tie breakers.

Fulham vs. Manchester City

With Manchester City’s win on Tuesday, they have put themselves in a strong position to finish in the top 5. They face a Fulham team that isn’t a push over but they don’t really have anything at stake either here with them assured of a finish somewhere between 9th and 12th.

Permutations:

• Win

• Draw, and one of Newcastle (-4), Chelsea (-6), or Aston Villa (-17) fail to overturn the goal advantage in goal difference.

• Lose, and one of Newcastle, Chelsea, or Aston Villa fail to win

The odds are high here for them to make it through seeing as they don’t have to win here but will be favored to at least pick up a result.

What to Watch For:

• Forest vs. Chelsea: This could be a straight shootout for a top-5 spot. A Forest win, paired with a Newcastle or Villa slip, could see them leapfrog into the Champions League. This is the match that a lot of the other ones will depend on and it will be the main focus.

• Goal Difference: City (+26), Newcastle (+22), Chelsea (+20) have a clear edge, while Villa’s +9 could haunt them if points are level and it will act as an extra point given it is the first tie breaker.

• Rooting for Chaos: This season hasn’t had much jeopardy so maybe we can get in the final day.

Prediction: Newcastle and Manchester City are near locks for the top 5, with Chelsea holding a slight edge over Villa and Forest due to their goal difference and direct control.

The most likely outcome is that things end as the start but that isn’t much fun.

Expect City to secure 3rd, Newcastle to take 4th, and Chelsea to edge out Villa for 5th, with Forest potentially settling for 7th and Europa League football. But with only one point between 4th and 7th, anything can happen and that is what I am rooting for.