Seven Matches to End a 22 Year Wait
Mapping every path to Arsenal's first Premier League title since 2004
The end of the March International break signals the start of the final sprint for the Club season. For Arsenal there is a lot left on the line with the dream of a treble still real, but more importantly for the fan base it could be the end of a 22 year wait to lift the Premier League trophy again.
More than a few Arsenal players have dropped out of their international commitments this break, which is never comfortable to see and could complicate things if they are truly unable to contribute. However, my more optimistic and grounded in how this has gone with players in the past read of this, is that they know exactly what's coming and want to be ready for it.
Remaining Fixtures for the Run In
Arsenal have seven Premier League matches left, and how things shake out over the next two months will define this season. Here's how my team ratings assess the remaining schedules across the league.
With the final rounds of the FA Cup the future schedule dates will get complicated and move around with teams having games in hand to make up but that shouldn’t alter the overall difficulty too much beyond stacking things up potentially towards the end.
Arsenal have the 14th toughest remaining schedule. The biggest test is obviously the trip to Manchester but the Bournemouth and Newcastle home matches aren’t guaranteed points (there really aren’t too many of these in this version of the Premier League).
Manchester City have the 8th toughest remaining schedule with the back-to-back Chelsea and Arsenal matches looking very tough for them but with a potentially tricky final few matches to close out the season.
Arsenal vs City’s Remaining Schedule
The biggest difference however between Arsenal and Manchester City right now is that because City couldn’t get past Real Madrid in the Champions League, they will not have the next two midweeks filled with a quarterfinal, nor do they have a potential semi-final at the end of April.
I wouldn’t trade that position because I want to see Arsenal try and win the Champions League but it does simplify things for City to avoid a high-pressure midweek match ahead of their Premier League matches.
Here is what the end of season schedule looks with the FA Cup and Champions League dates included.
I have taken a guess at when Manchester City’s postponed round 31 match against Crystal Palace might fall but that will probably depend on the result of their match against Liverpool this weekend.
I have also highlighted the round 34 and 37 matches because these are the dates for the FA Cup semi-final and final and if either team makes it that far these will also move to one of the open midweek slots. It could get a bit congested here at the end of the season.
Some of these final matches can be tough to rate. The varying levels of how much it matters can really screw with things and you can get the classic “on the beach” scenario for what might be a tricky match or an incredibly motivated and desperate team that is fighting for safety or European placement.
Overall, looking at the expectations and the current gap it makes sense why Arsenal are heavy favorites in the Premier League. Manchester City’s max points is 85 if they run the table and that matches Arsenal’s average points right now. To have a chance at the title Manchester City realistically need 22 or 24 points out of their final 24 available here, that would put them at 83 or 85 points. These are still totals Arsenal don’t need to be perfect to beat but anything less and the chances dip significantly.
We have seen Manchester City go on long winning runs but that is now quite a ways in the past. This season, City’s longest winning streak in the League is 6 matches. The last time that they put together a streak of 8 wins was the end of the 2024 season where they won their final 9 matches. If they want to try and pip Arsenal they will have to find that form again but even still it would need Arsenal slipping up.
This season Manchester City have averaged 16.8 points over each 8-match span, they have 21 points twice that includes mostly the same matches on either side of Christmas. They will have to be better than they have been at any other point this season and even then it might not be enough.
Arsenal’s form isn’t sparkling, but it isn’t really as bad as perhaps it might feel like. Arsenal have been one of the strongest and most consistent team’s in Europe this season. Looking at their results this season and you just don’t see many times where the opposition got the better of them.
If you wanted to say that Arsenal have been on the weaker side lately, I wouldn’t fight you too hard about it.
The overall trend for the performance numbers make this claim defensible, but I would ask relative to what? Relative to the amazing team that they were previously because that’s true, but relative to the other teams that they are up against? No that isn’t true.
If there was another team that was on top form and breathing down Arsenal’s neck I might not have the same current confidence but there isn’t.
If Arsenal match what they did in these same fixtures last season they will win the League. Arsenal went 5-1-1 in these fixtures (losing to Bournemouth and drawing with City) and a repeat of that would put Arsenal at 86 points.
This season, over 7 match stretches, Arsenal have averaged 15.4 points and that is basically all they need to do again. They don’t need to play any better or different than they have all year long to make it so that they don’t even need to depend on Manchester City dropping points.
How Much the City vs Arsenal Head-to-Head Changes Things
Now let’s get into the fun of trying to figure out how much a couple different scenarios could move the overall odds.
