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The Final Weekend Scenarios and Odds
It is the final weekend of the Premier League season and there a few things left to be decided. Below is the odds for where each team can finish after Sunday is done.
The biggest things left to be decided are the title, with Manchester City in the driver's seat. 4th place is still up for grabs but my model thinks that Tottenham are a near lock. The last Europa League spot is still to be decided between Manchester United and West Ham.
In the midtable there is still the potential for a bunch of movement and a few million pounds could be won or loss as teams move up and down between these spots.
Lastly, there is who between Burnley and Leeds will get to have another season in the Premier League next season.
Let's go through each of the scenarios and the odds for the matches in question.
The title race
Both Manchester City and Liverpool are at home and have an equal chance of winning (a fun coincidence).
The root for chaos result: Liverpool 5-5 Wolves and Manchester City 0-6 Aston Villa.
If my math is correct this is the result that gets City and Liverpool tied on points, goal difference and goals scored, leaving us with the one-game playoff to decide the title.
More realistically the results will be decided on Sunday, Liverpool have a chance but they will need to win with Manchester City dropping points. I don't see it happening but I also didn't imagine that Manchester City would drop points last weekend to West Ham.
The above GIF basically is where I am at.
Arsenal are looking at a 6% chance and even that feels high in my opinion based on the current injury situation for the team. Maybe with Everton already safe, having managed a big comeback to earn that safety they will not offer the same level of competition but they could also have the pressure off and play better.
Trying to do armchair psychology is hard and is not really an area that we can prove.
The most fun scenario: Norwich 0-0 Tottenham and Arsenal 15-0 Everton. A draw in almost all scenarios is good enough for Spurs given their huge edge in goal difference, in this one Arsenal tie-on goal difference and points, stealing 4th place with more goals scored. That would be a hell of a Sunday at the Emirates Stadium.
For Tottenham Harry Kane is a doubt with some other injuries making this a bit tricker than they would like but it is nowhere near as extensive as what Arsenal are dealing with.
Norwich are the worst team in the league and have won just 5 matches all season. I can't imagine that they pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season here.
Both of these United teams have really stumbled to the finish line of the season.
Over the last 10 matches played Manchester United have been outscored (1.1 goals for and 1.9 goals against) and out xg'd (1.1 for and 1.7 against). Their attack has been mediocre producing about 87% of the average Premier League team and the defense has been pretty bad allowing 38% more than the average Premier League team.
For West Ham, the story is roughly the same but maybe a bit better. Over the last 10 matches played West Ham have been outscored (1.3 goals for and 1.6 goals against) and out xg'd (1.2 for and 1.7 against).
Manchester United have been the 16th rated team and West Ham have been the 14th rated team.
On Sunday, Manchester United control their destiny but have the harder match-up going against Crystal Palace who have played incredibly well under Patrick Viera. I am rooting hard for the fighting David Moyes, it would make Arsenal's choke job a little less painful to see Manchester United drop down to the Conference League.
Burnley's draw on Thursday puts them into the driver's seat for staying up. They just need to match or beat what Leeds does and they will have another Premier League season (there isn't likely to be a 20-goal swing in goal difference with both teams having the same results).
Burnley at home will also have a bit easier match on paper than Leeds having to go to Brentford. Both Newcastle and Brentford have been playing well so it is really hard to imagine either team winning here but hopefully the drama can ratchet up here and help make Sunday more interesting.
If I had to pick one of these teams to stay up, my choice would be Leeds. Arsenal have had some of their best performances against Leeds recently and Burnley are an annoying team to play against.
I wrote a little what if article on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and if he had stayed at Arsenal.
This was an in-depth article looking at Arsenal's (soon to be) newest signing Marquihos. He looks to be a low-risk gamble on future talent.