The real remontada has been Martinelli's

Don't sleep on what Arsenal's other winger is doing this spring

Some time ago, I wrote a piece about guys who, for whatever reason, are simply on the list of those who’ll be first to catch hell from Arsenal fans when things aren’t universally stellar.

One of those names was none other than Gabriel Martinelli, the very same player who in the 2022-2023 campaign became one of only FOUR Arsenal players 22 or younger to score 15 non-penalty goals in the Premier League. The others? Henry, Henry, Anelka.

But that campaign was built off some pretty red-hot finishing, and despite repeating a lot of what made him great in 23-24, Martinelli didn’t match his goals number last season. With his dribbling becoming increasingly difficult and poor due to positional isolation and (probably) a lack of confidence that resulted, Arsenal fans have zoomed in further and further on the Brazilian winger’s performance over the past 18 months, with many saying he simply isn’t good enough anymore to carry that side of Arsenal’s attack.

And that makes it all the more important that we make note of what Martinelli has done since returning from his hamstring injury this March.

Since coming on as a sub March 9 at Old Trafford, Martinelli has played 599 minutes (6.66 90s), scoring two goals and recording one assist. That’s just shy of a goal contribution every other 90, which is pretty good for a winger. But some of the other numbers stand out even more:

• Martinelli has generated 0.38 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, better than his monster 2022-23 campaign and just shy of the 90th percentile in the Premier League.

• His chance creation is also up, with his expected goals assisted at 0.29 per 90. That is again in about the 90th percentile and would put him top-10 league-wide over the course of a season. It’s also a big step up from his 0.22 for the entire season (an already not-bad 65th-percentile number).

• Martinelli is getting about the same level of service, but has settled into a groove attacking the penalty area. This stretch has seen him make .08 carries into the penalty area per touch, easily the highest of his career and a rate that would put him top ten in my most recent data dive on wingers.

Here’s a quick radar showing his performance since he came back, keeping in mind SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.

Martinelli’s season-long campaign now sits at 14 goal contributions in 33 90s across all competitions, and things are absolutely headed in the right direction if he can keep it up over what remains of the season. But one thing I don’t want to lose sight of: The discussion regarding Martinelli’s performance has always been built on a foundation of overreaction and hyperbole.

I recently compared comparisons to other players to putting our own under a microscope while watching others through binoculars:

Such holds true and is only amplified when you factor in the emotional attachment to every attack, every pass, every action. If a player attempts 30 actions and succeeds in seven of them, that may make them empirically a very good player. But a fan in the moment feels the frustration and commits to memory those other 23 times. That experience is only heightened by watching match highlights or even taking in entire games you may not be as emotionally attached to.

To leave you with a bit of an exercise here, I did a quick pull of numbers to compare Martinelli to a handful of other Premier League wingers to whom he’s been compared and/or whom fans have identified as upgrades: Luis Díaz, Antoine Semenyo, Anthony Gordon, Pedro Neto and Bryan Mbeumo. This data pull covered the past two seasons, so it does not include the 15-goal outing.

Of that list, Martinelli ranked fourth for actual goal + assist output per time played over the past two seasons, with a 0.48 g+a per 90 that fell just shy of Gordon’s 0.5, Díaz’s 0.53 and Mbeumo’s 0.54. But notably, only Díaz has bested Martinelli for underlying expected goals and assists, with 0.57 non-penalty xG+xA per 90 over the past two seasons to Martinelli’s 0.53. The majority of that gap is due to Martinelli’s 3.3 deficit of assists to expected assists, easily the biggest gap of these six players and something he doesn’t have an especially high level of control over.

While it may be tempting to dismiss such as effects of Arsenal and Liverpool’s attacks being better than their peers in this group, it’s absolutely worth noting that every player’s club except Mbeumo has outproduced Arsenal’s attack in terms of non-penalty xG this season, while both Newcastle and Liverpool did so last season.

That was my quick bit on Martinelli for today - more to come as the season winds down. For now, we’ve got a match tonight that could make top five this season pretty much a given, and the biggest match the Emirates has seen in probably 15 years to follow next Tuesday. Buckle up!