The target man theory
Will Arsenal sign a big attacker this summer?
It’s the international break, and we’re all a little bored. Scott already weighed in on Antonio Conte’s shameful exit, so I figured I’d tackle a topic that rears its head every few weeks: Arsenal’s alleged need for a tall striker.
The take, “Arsenal need a tall, target-man-style striker to provide variety off the bench,” has been coming up for the better part of a year now. It drove some to opine that the club should sign both Gabriel Jesus and Gianlucca Scamacca. It also was part of the narrative surrounding Dusan Vlahovic. Height (or lack thereof) was also used to talk down potential transfer targets like Jonathan David.
It’s not that the point doesn’t make any sense. With Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah both standing about 5’9”, and Folarin Balogun only an inch taller, Arsenal don’t have that classic, Olivier Giroud-style striker who can finish off moves with towering headers. So when links pop up to players like Rasmus Højlund, a 6-foot-3 Dane currently turning heads at Atalanta and in European qualifying, the big-man theory is given new life.
I didn’t hop on Substack today to tell you definitively that Arsenal will not sign another centre-forward. Honestly, who knows what could happen once the club lock up their Champions League place. But I am here to tell you they don’t need one.
Arsenal’s numerous 9s
So, why don’t Arsenal need another striker? Wouldn’t a big, tall guy help in mixing up the attack? Well, I suppose sometimes it wouldn’t hurt. But Arsenal as things stand simply cannot sustain another player at the position.
Gabriel Jesus is the obvious talisman here. If he’s healthy, he would have started all 28 games in the Premier League. As Arsenal move into the Champions League, it’s highly unlikely that the Brazilian playmaker and goalscorer is left on the bench on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, save for fitness-related issues. The level of competition is simply too good.
So that covers a massive chunk of the minutes available at 9, let’s say two-thirds. Of course, injuries still happen, and Arsenal will play in two domestic cups, and so a backup will be necessary. With something like 20 90s to go around, much of that as an “impactor” during league games, would that even be enough for both Eddie Nketiah, who will be in his second year on a five-year deal worth £100,000 per week, and Folarin Balogun, who’s coming off a genuine charge at Ligue 1’s Golden Boot? That’s a question likely to haunt Mikel Arteta and Edu all summer, and one which could very easily push the club into a Balogun sale to the highest bidder.
A common retort to this logic is that Gabriel Jesus could rotate on the wings, creating more time down the middle. My response: OK, he can play there, but at whose expense? Are you removing Gabriel Martinelli from the lineup on a routine basis? Certainly not Bukayo Saka? I expect those two to be in the same tier of playing time as a Jesus would be: among the first names on the team sheet for the most important games, with occasional, fitness-based rotation as needed. Not exactly a wealth of minutes to be doled out, then.
The tactical impact
This brings me to my other point, which has been at times painfully visible this season. When has Arsenal’s attack been at its worst? The pretty easy answer for me: the stretch in late January and early February when they registered just two goals in five games.
If you remember, Nketiah started to miss his chances, and the movement up front began to stagnate, with a distinct lack of connection between Nketiah and Martinelli coinciding with some of Granit Xhaka’s worst play of the season.
That period, and the impact Leandro Trossard made shortly thereafter, hammered home a key element of Arsenal’s attack: Having three forwards who can move interchangeably all over the pitch, creating chances for themselves and each other. The attack hums at a different frequency when you’re as likely to see Gabriel Martinelli in the six-yard box as out wide, or when he’s making overlapping runs down the right wing (as happened against Everton). As the youths might say, it’s different gravy.
That was a weakness in the Nketiah-Martinelli-Saka front, one that could survive a couple of games but eventually was exposed. Having a striker parked in the box limits Martinelli more than anyone, and to me, that does limit the appeal of bringing in a player who thrives centrally but cannot move out wide like Jesus, Trossard and Balogun can.
What’s more, Arsenal are actually already doing just fine on headed goals. They’ve scored eight this season, placing them in a tie for fourth in the league. Anyone want to guess who’s ahead of Arsenal in that race? It’s three clubs well off the title pace: Spurs, Fulham and Liverpool.
The budget
And, of course, there’s the matter of money. Nketiah’s contract was a £26m investment for Arsenal, and put him in a wage bracket that most non-big-six Premier League clubs only reserve for time-tested veterans. Of course, Jesus cost even more, and Saka and Martinelli will be on new deals for nearly double Eddie’s pay started next season, making none of them particularly expendable.
There’s also the matter of Arsenal’s summer priorities. The club needs at least one midfielder, and they’re not aiming low, with names like Declan Rice, Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia being linked by more credible sources than the ones writing Højlund news. Those are all £50m+ players with considerable wage demands.
Arsenal also seem likely to add another wide attacker to join Saka, Martinelli, and Trossard, particularly if Reiss Nelson doesn’t see his contract renewed. Even if Reiss does sign again, there’s an argument that another left-footer is needed, with credible links including Bayer Leverkusen’s Moussa Diaby. He’d also be expensive.
There will also be the matter of adding a defender, and by now you’re looking at an expensive summer. Should we really be expecting Arsenal to drop £45m on a centre-forward? It’s hard for me to make that all make sense.
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The links are going to continue until the very end of the season, and throughout the summer. With countless sources of varying credibility chasing clicks, and agents chasing a payday, Arsenal are an easy name to mention. And yes, Arsenal will have scouted, and maybe even enquired about, many players they’ll ultimately do very little to sign.
As summer edges nearer, I’m going to be less likely to buy into any of these striker rumors. I might even put it bottom of my needs list for the club headed into the window (sounds like a good article for the end of the season!)
Until then, I might put a lot of stock in the old adage and wait until you see the player in the club’s shirt. Or at least, you know, wait for someone credible like James McNicholas or David Ornstein to report on it first.