Tight Premier League Races all around

The home stretch of the Premier League schedule is looking like it will be full of drama with the potential for several of the key positions looking like it will come down to the wirse

Matchweek 33 Odds

The title race, top 4 race, and relegation race are all still on. The odds for all three races are all right about at the same level of tightness.

The title race is still the one where my model sees things as the furthest apart.

Liverpool have the benefit of the goal difference but are behind on everything else. They are rated ever so slightly below Manchester City, they are one point behind currently, and have a slightly harder schedule with the 13th hardest while City have the 18th hardest.

Both teams will be heavy favorites in their remaining schedule, so any dropped points will be a shock. This weekend is no different with both teams facing relegation-threatened teams.

In the top four race Arsenal pulled a shock beating Chelsea and making their Champions League odds from 1 in 4 to just below 1 in 2. Both Arsenal and Tottenham have similar odds this weekend in their matchups but at least to me it doesn't feel like they should be as close as they are.

At the bottom of the table, Everton and Burnley continue to play like not great flawed teams. With the teams alternating winning and dropping points the odds have bounced back and forth to now where it is basically a coin flip between them.

Arsenal vs Manchester Utd

I am still a little nervous that this is as big a favorite for Arsenal as my model suggests. This is not far off what the betting odds imply with a 47.4% but is quite a bit off of what FiveThirtyEight has with Arsenal 56% to win.

I can see the case both ways.

Manchester United really are on the edge of nothing to play for (that they really care about), staring at a season that will be a failure, playing for a manager who has already been replaced. They have also been on an uneven run, winning two, losing three, and drawing one.

Then there is the need to bounce back against humiliation by a rival in a match that is still "big" even if the two teams are shadows of their former selves. United could be very up for it.

I am dreading the early wake up call because this could be an ugly match against an Arsenal team that while riding high on their own win is still missing key players in the starting lineup.

Odds for the remaining matches