Time to rebound

It has been a tough month but the run of matches are favorable for a return to previous form

Thankfully for Arsenal, the time to dwell and stew on the loss is short. Arsenal have a quick turnaround from the match Wednesday to the early kick-off Saturday and a big chance to turn this skid into positive momentum.

This slump in form has been stark and a bit worrying. After the Manchester United win Arsenal had reached a new high in my team ratings and had significantly closed the gap to Manchester City. Over the last weeks with a big string of results and performances that were not to the previous standard the rating has come falling down.

I do wonder if things are a little too sensitive here to the three-match run but It is also that Arsenal have not been at the same level since the return from the World Cup even if they were not really “bad”.

Arsenal have looked significantly more ordinary over these last 8 matches and that makes sense that this is taking more weight vs what happened before the league broke for the World Cup.

The positive side of this is that the next 6 weeks look very kind to Arsenal in the Premier League.

Arsenal have matches against the 14th (A), 10th (A), 19th (H), 20th (H), 11th (A), 17th (H), and 13th(H), rated teams (from my team ratings) ahead. On the spreadsheet, this run of matches is ripe for a turnaround and points accumulation.

Last year in these same fixtures Arsenal got 19 of 21 points, my simulation gives Arsenal 16 expected points and I think 18 has to be the baseline of expectations here. It is hard to be nearly perfect, but there is not an easier run of fixtures for Arsenal in their schedule and if they want to earn a title this will be the run that can help get them the points they need to go toe to toe with City and be in a situation that the match against them at the end of April still matters.

Arsenal will be favorites in every one of these matches and a chance to get back to their winning ways and potentially regain a foothold in the title race again, where they are still potentially ahead with the match in hand.

Things start again tomorrow.

Week 24 Odds

Arsenal in the first match of the weekend is one where they really need to win. They are favorites but it will still be a nervy match for fans with Unai Emery looking to get revenge on his old team.

The positive part is that they have not looked especially strong and they will probably look to implement the same Newcastle, Everton, and Brentford playbook of sitting deep and looking to overload the wide players.

A big win here would be good for everyone and I hope it happens.

For the 7am kickoffs I think I am most interested in the Everton vs Leeds but it is a pretty good slate of matches.

The late Saturday kickoff is a big test for Newcastle.

Newcastle have been solid, but they have struggled to score since teams have started respecting them more. They are now with 11 draws against just 10 wins and just the one loss.

Moving on to Sunday.

Manchester United if they are truly in the title race this will need to be a match they win. They probably should but they will have had a tough draw away against Barcelona with another one on the horizon for them next week with advancement on the line.

The matchweek ends with Tottenham vs West Ham.

It looks like Antonio Conte is having trouble recovering from his surgery and I wish him the best on that. As for the match, I don’t have too much to say beyond I am not sure I expect this one to be much of a spectacle.

Yee Haw, hope everyone has a great weekend.