Title Clash, part 1

The first of two huge matches that will help decide the title

After Sunday, the Premier League will potentially have a bit more clarity into who is the favorite for the Premier League title.

It could change shortly after with the Manchester City vs Arsenal match coming right behind on Easter but this match will go a long way to shaking up the odds.

The best outcome for Arsenal is a draw, this has both teams dropping points and if they win their match on Saturday against Brentford, they will leap over both as the new leaders for the first time since Christmas.

A Manchester City win really hurts Liverpool and would move them into a spot where they do not control their destiny but it would be decent for Arsenal. This is obviously the best for the defending Champions and would set up the head-to-head match as incredibly decisive for both teams.

A Liverpool win is the worst outcome for Arsenal. If Liverpool wins, there is nothing Arsenal can do to guarantee they catch them. The odds aren’t bad in this situation but Liverpool has a manageable fixture list that is only complicated by the fact that they have a lot of them.

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These teams are incredibly closely matched and this will hopefully end up as a good spectacle to watch and one fitting of the final Premier League clash between Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola. They have given us some good ones over the years and hopefully, they have one more in the bag.

The teams end up in roughly the same spot but do so in different ways.

Liverpool has a more direct style compared to City who are still among the most patient with their buildup play. Liverpool are still aggressive pressers, while Manchester City have dialed that back.

Liverpool have ridden their luck some in defense, getting the maximum out of a defense that is good but not elite and relying on bad finishing and some very good goalkeeping to keep goals out.

They will need all the defensive good fortune they can muster because for as much as Manchester City have looked vulnerable and like they are still missing stuff this season they still have killers. I wasn’t sure what Kevin De Bruyne would be able to offer coming back from an injury at his age but he has added a missing spark and helped recover some of the old magic that they had previously.

For Liverpool, I think the wildcard is Darwin Nunez. The guy is a bit of a meme but he is still ridiculously talented and a production monster.

Salah is still the guy but he is just coming back from injury so the player that might end up in the pivotal moment could be the one where you have no idea what could happen.

The edge in this match, and what will push Liverpool to have slightly better odds in my model is that they have the massive home-field advantage here. There is no team that is rated higher at home, and no team has a bigger split than Liverpool compared to what they do at home vs away.

The Anfield crowd might be a bit overhyped but I don’t doubt that they will attempt to bring the noise for this one to help propel Liverpool to win here.

Round 28 Odds