Top Four Check-In - The turntables have turned
Wow. Things have changed a lot since I last wrote this a couple of weeks ago.
The positions of Arsenal and Tottenham are almost exactly reversed and it is a great illustration of how fast things can change in this race.
Arsenal have obviously been hurt by losing and Tottenham winning, but it is also something that the performance of Tottenham has seen them put space between them and Arsenal.
Over the last two weeks, there has been an almost 6 point swing in the points compared to expected for Tottenham and Arsenal. Arsenal dropped 1.63 points losing to Crystal Palace and 1.95 with their loss against Brighton while Spurs picked up 1.04 with their win against Newcastle and 1.34 against Aston Villa.
What has softened the blow for Arsenal is that the teams outside of Spurs have not been able to pick up much ground with their own struggles. Manchester United dropped some massive expected points against Everton and are now looking at around a 1% chance of finishing in the top four.
West Ham were already mostly out of it but have continued to alternate wins and losses ensuring that they are very much outsiders for a top-four spot.
This also means that even if Arsenal miss out on the top four they are in a good spot to still finish 6th or better right now. My current simulation has Arsenal with 95% or better to finish in the top 6 right now.
Arsenal's Magic Number
Arsenal still technically control their own destiny for the top four. If they win out it will guarantee that they finish about Spurs. Below are the points needed (a combination of Arsenal gaining points and others dropping points) to finish above them.
Team - Points
Tottenham - 24
West Ham - 15
Manchester United - 18
Wolverhampton Wanderers - 13
Leicester - 13
Crystal Palace - 4
Brighton - 4
Aston Villa - 3
Brentford - X
Newcastle United - 1
Leeds - X
Everton - X
Burnley - X
Watford - X
Norwich - X