Unfinished Business: Previewing Arsenal vs PSG
Arsenal head into the Champions League Final with the title won, revenge on their mind, and a chance at history
This Champions League final lands in a bit of a weird moment.
It feels like the hype, pressure, and anticipation for this match are much lower than I would have thought going into the biggest single match of Arsenal’s season.
The afterglow of winning the Premier League over the last week has been a massive release and it has rightly gotten the vast majority of the attention in Arsenal focused circles. The World Cup squads are being released and attention for the tournament is ramping up, drawing eyes elsewhere. The transfer window and squad building plans are starting to swing into full gear after months in the background and this is something that always garners attention from everyone.
I am no different either, my attention has been split trying to get the CannonStats web app ready for a limited beta release, to test and work out bugs before opening it up to subscribers here. All of the graphics for this post were generated from this and it is very exciting but it is another thing that has stolen attention from this match.
Today we change that and dig deep into this match.
It is a bit of a free hit (as much as these games can be) with the weight of YOU MUST WIN SOMETHING lifted off Arsenal by the Premier League and with revenge on the team’s mind, I expect Arsenal to come into this game feeling lighter and with something to prove.
Just writing this last sentence has gotten me feeling excited and nervous at the same time, exactly what we want. Let’s get into it.
PSG Performance
It will come as no surprise and it won’t exactly make me a top tier scout to notice this, but PSG are a very good team. They are certainly in the conversation for the best team in the world and they have been that way for the better part of 18-24 months under Luis Enrique.
Their stats for the Ligue 1 and Champions League this season back this up.
They have a ridiculously strong attack and back it up doing a very good job of limiting what teams can generate against them.
In Ligue 1 this season they were worthy winners for the 12th time out of the last 14 seasons.
They got a bit of a push from Lens this season but ended up showing their superior overall talent in the end with the best attacking numbers and the best defensive numbers.
In the Champions League, they didn’t have quite as dominant a time as they did in France. For the second season in a row they ended up outside of the top 8 and had to take the hard road to the final with an extra knock out match and a disadvantage in the seeding.
While they haven’t been the best team in the Champions League, they have still performed at a high level to be in the tier just below and on their way to the final have dispatched both Liverpool and Bayern Munich, who were above them. The last team left in the Champions League with better numbers than them is none other than Arsenal.
That sets things up nicely and whoever emerges here will have a strong case to be the best team from the tournament overall.
PSG Form
This season has gone pretty well for PSG, they have spent most of the current campaign putting up elite (+1 or better) expected goals difference numbers.
However… recently the trend has reversed and they have posted some of their worst numbers in the last several seasons.
Here is the same rolling xG for and against over the last three seasons for Ligue 1 and the Champions League that covers the full Luis Enrique time period. The current run is the second worst it has been only beaten by a brief stretch in March of 2024.
When you look at a more detailed level, you can see that the goals scored look good with 18 scored vs just 9 allowed but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong. Some of that could be game state and not having the motivation in the League (especially the last match against Paris FC) but it could be a bit of a warning sign for them.
Here is what it looks like in the Champions League only from the Round of 16 knockouts going forward.
Again we could point to game state here as an explanation for some of these but even though they have a +11 goal difference here it has come on a negative expected goals difference. Extremely good attackers like PSG can put on the field matters for beating xG but even the best players don’t and wouldn’t be expected to double their xG in the long run.
The individual matches in the Champions League are fascinating microcosms.
That first match against Chelsea without the gifted goals and naïvety really could have swung the other way with Chelsea getting some very good looks.
The full two-legs against Liverpool is very interesting, they dominated start to finish in the first match and then were able to withstand 2nd half pressure in the return leg while executing the defend and counter tactic to put the game away.
The overall tie against Bayern was just pure fireworks and finishing. That being said, it should have been close to tie over at 5-2 and they nearly threw it away.
In these knockouts they have played well but they have needed some hot finishing to propel themselves to the final.
They also got the positive variance on the defensive side of shooting, allowing fewer goals than expected.
PSG have some of the best attackers in the world so it isn’t exactly unheard of to see them go on a hot finishing run (while still also producing good underlying expected numbers) but the current hot run is certainly VERY hot.
We don’t want to fall victim to the gambler’s fallacy and expect it to suddenly reverse with a cold streak but it sure would be nice if that happened, or if at a minimum we got reversion towards expected finishing in the final.
Style Comparison
This match actually presents an interesting contrast between two teams, especially two teams that are thought of as very good. PSG are much more of a throwback to a different era with the way that they play, while Arsenal represent a bit more of the “new” way that is growing, especially in Premier League football.
In the Champions League, Arsenal have been much more comfortable playing with less possession and being able to play a more direct and quick style. That is not often afforded them in the Premier League. They have fewer overall passes, go long more often, and need crosses as a much larger tool to get the ball into the box.
What really stands out here is that even with those stylistic changes one that doesn’t really budge is where Arsenal matches see the action on the field occur. Even with less on the ball control, they still push the game into the third that they are attacking at a rate that is among the best.
One of the stats that I don’t have captured on the “style” view here is looking at pressing, this is one of the areas where PSG feel like a throwback to that previous generation of elite teams.
In the Champions League no team has put more pressure on the opposition than PSG according to PPDA.
They do so while playing one of the highest lines by measure of where they make defensive actions as well. Arsenal aren’t a passive defense either but PSG are just at a different level here on how much they press. Often the big teams in the Champions League will assume the ball, meaning that they just always play matches where they have the majority of possession and they don’t really have a plan for how to get it back when they come up against a team that want to contest it (like Arsenal will in this match), PSG do not fall into this trap. They have a plan to get it back and they use it as a very potent weapon.
Attacking
PSG are one of the best attacking teams in the world and have been for some time now. They have incredible depth and can throw players like Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola at you while also having some impressive youngsters in Ibrahim Mbaye and Quentin Ndjantou plus Lee Kang-In and Goncalo Ramos to round things out.
Here is the comparison against Arsenal in the Champions League on the attacking radar. Arsenal aren’t quite as good overall in attack but I think that they surprisingly hold their own here.
Defending
PSG aren’t thought of as a defensive team but given how much of the ball that they have and the overall talent level they still show up quite well in the defensive metrics.
Here is the comparison against Arsenal in the Champions League on the defensive radar. In the Champions League Arsenal have had the edge as the more dominant defensive team this season.
Keys to the game
This isn’t a match where it will be a mystery how the teams play.
I expect that this will be a fairly even match overall but my guess is that it will start off with PSG having more of the ball but with Arsenal able to have their own spells of possession.
I expect that Arsenal will play more of a mid-block game looking to frustrate and limit entry into dangerous locations and picking their moments to try and press PSG. On the other side, I expect PSG will do their best to press hard, force Arsenal into a mistake or to go long.
I think that in the situations where Arsenal win the match, they frustrate PSG’s possession game and keep them in areas where Arsenal want them to play while winning the second balls to start their own attacks without PSG able to apply pressure imminently following the turnovers. They will still need something special from one or more of the attackers but with a much healthier front line than last season that seems like a real possibility this time.
In the situations that go PSG's way, I think Arsenal fail to execute their defensive game plan or succumb to mistakes under pressure. Last season, the pivotal goal in the first game came from Arsenal’s rotations in the press being a touch slower than PSG’s fluid buildup. If the team slips up even a little bit PSG have the quality to make you pay for it and if you gift them a chance (like Chelsea did) that can be fatal.
Last season against PSG we probably saw the worst case scenarios play out over both legs. Arsenal in the first leg had a minor mistake get maximum punishment (but probably were lucky to not concede a goal at the very end) while they had their own very presentable chances squandered.
In the second leg, I saw Arsenal play with a sense of urgency and purpose that was at the highest level and they put PSG under more pressure than just about any team had done. It took Gianluigi Donnarumma making some excellent saves to keep the lead and then another sucker punch goal that all but killed things for Arsenal.
Arsenal fans and the wider soccer watching audience I think came away with slightly different views of the overall match.
Arsenal partisans viewed it much more as one that got away with Arsenal playing well enough that they would often come away the winners and it was the bounces that decided it.
Neutrals or PSG partisans I think generally came away viewing that the scoreline reflected that PSG were the better team.
I think that this divergence of opinion remains, with many non-Arsenal fans underestimating them especially with both of last season’s matches in the semi-final being won by PSG.
Looking at the betting odds right now and the consensus points that way right now, PSG are 1.699 to win on Pinnacle which roughly translates to 57-43% odds of winning for each team. I'm not unbiased, but I can't help feeling this is much closer to a true coin flip. Arsenal aren't being given enough credit, and too much weight is being placed on performances from a period when they were dealing with major injury issues.
ty of the attention in Arsenal focused circles. The World Cup squads are being released and attention for the tournament is ramping up, drawing eyes elsewhere. The transfer window and squad building plans are starting to swing into full gear after months in the background and this is something that always garners attention from everyone.
I am no different either, my attention has been split trying to get the CannonStats web app ready for a limited beta release, to test and work out bugs before opening it up to subscribers here. All of the graphics for this post were generated from this and it is very exciting but it is another thing that has stolen attention from this match.
Today we change that and dig deep into this match.
It is a bit of a free hit (as much as these games can be) with the weight of YOU MUST WIN SOMETHING lifted off Arsenal by the Premier League and with revenge on the team’s mind, I expect Arsenal to come into this game feeling lighter and with something to prove.
Just writing this last sentence has gotten me feeling excited and nervous at the same time, exactly what we want. Let’s get into it.
PSG Performance
It will come as no surprise and it won’t exactly make me a top tier scout to notice this, but PSG are a very good team. They are certainly in the conversation for the best team in the world and they have been that way for the better part of 18-24 months under Luis Enrique.
Their stats for the Ligue 1 and Champions League this season back this up.
They have a ridiculously strong attack and back it up doing a very good job of limiting what teams can generate against them.
In Ligue 1 this season they were worthy winners for the 12th time out of the last 14 seasons.
They got a bit of a push from Lens this season but ended up showing their superior overall talent in the end with the best attacking numbers and the best defensive numbers.
In the Champions League, they didn’t have quite as dominant a time as they did in France. For the second season in a row they ended up outside of the top 8 and had to take the hard road to the final with an extra knock out match and a disadvantage in the seeding.
While they haven’t been the best team in the Champions League, they have still performed at a high level to be in the tier just below and on their way to the final have dispatched both Liverpool and Bayern Munich, who were above them. The last team left in the Champions League with better numbers than them is none other than Arsenal.
That sets things up nicely and whoever emerges here will have a strong case to be the best team from the tournament overall.
PSG Form
This season has gone pretty well for PSG, they have spent most of the current campaign putting up elite (+1 or better) expected goals difference numbers.
However… recently the trend has reversed and they have posted some of their worst numbers in the last several seasons.
Here is the same rolling xG for and against over the last three seasons for Ligue 1 and the Champions League that covers the full Luis Enrique time period. The current run is the second worst it has been only beaten by a brief stretch in March of 2024.
When you look at a more detailed level, you can see that the goals scored look good with 18 scored vs just 9 allowed but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong. Some of that could be game state and not having the motivation in the League (especially the last match against Paris FC) but it could be a bit of a warning sign for them.
Here is what it looks like in the Champions League only from the Round of 16 knockouts going forward.
Again we could point to game state here as an explanation for some of these but even though they have a +11 goal difference here it has come on a negative expected goals difference. Extremely good attackers like PSG can put on the field matters for beating xG but even the best players don’t and wouldn’t be expected to double their xG in the long run.
The individual matches in the Champions League are fascinating microcosms.
That first match against Chelsea without the gifted goals and naïvety really could have swung the other way with Chelsea getting some very good looks.
The full two-legs against Liverpool is very interesting, they dominated start to finish in the first match and then were able to withstand 2nd half pressure in the return leg while executing the defend and counter tactic to put the game away.
The overall tie against Bayern was just pure fireworks and finishing. That being said, it should have been close to tie over at 5-2 and they nearly threw it away.
In these knockouts they have played well but they have needed some hot finishing to propel themselves to the final.
They also got the positive variance on the defensive side of shooting, allowing fewer goals than expected.
PSG have some of the best attackers in the world so it isn’t exactly unheard of to see them go on a hot finishing run (while still also producing good underlying expected numbers) but the current hot run is certainly VERY hot.
We don’t want to fall victim to the gambler’s fallacy and expect it to suddenly reverse with a cold streak but it sure would be nice if that happened, or if at a minimum we got reversion towards expected finishing in the final.
Style Comparison
This match actually presents an interesting contrast between two teams, especially two teams that are thought of as very good. PSG are much more of a throwback to a different era with the way that they play, while Arsenal represent a bit more of the “new” way that is growing, especially in Premier League football.
In the Champions League, Arsenal have been much more comfortable playing with less possession and being able to play a more direct and quick style. That is not often afforded them in the Premier League. They have fewer overall passes, go long more often, and need crosses as a much larger tool to get the ball into the box.
What really stands out here is that even with those stylistic changes one that doesn’t really budge is where Arsenal matches see the action on the field occur. Even with less on the ball control, they still push the game into the third that they are attacking at a rate that is among the best.
One of the stats that I don’t have captured on the “style” view here is looking at pressing, this is one of the areas where PSG feel like a throwback to that previous generation of elite teams.
In the Champions League no team has put more pressure on the opposition than PSG according to PPDA.
They do so while playing one of the highest lines by measure of where they make defensive actions as well. Arsenal aren’t a passive defense either but PSG are just at a different level here on how much they press. Often the big teams in the Champions League will assume the ball, meaning that they just always play matches where they have the majority of possession and they don’t really have a plan for how to get it back when they come up against a team that want to contest it (like Arsenal will in this match), PSG do not fall into this trap. They have a plan to get it back and they use it as a very potent weapon.
Attacking
PSG are one of the best attacking teams in the world and have been for some time now. They have incredible depth and can throw players like Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola at you while also having some impressive youngsters in Ibrahim Mbaye and Quentin Ndjantou plus Lee Kang-In and Goncalo Ramos to round things out.
Here is the comparison against Arsenal in the Champions League on the attacking radar. Arsenal aren’t quite as good overall in attack but I think that they surprisingly hold their own here.
Defending
PSG aren’t thought of as a defensive team but given how much of the ball that they have and the overall talent level they still show up quite well in the defensive metrics.
Here is the comparison against Arsenal in the Champions League on the defensive radar. In the Champions League Arsenal have had the edge as the more dominant defensive team this season.
Keys to the game
This isn’t a match where it will be a mystery how the teams play.
I expect that this will be a fairly even match overall but my guess is that it will start off with PSG having more of the ball but with Arsenal able to have their own spells of possession.
I expect that Arsenal will play more of a mid-block game looking to frustrate and limit entry into dangerous locations and picking their moments to try and press PSG. On the other side, I expect PSG will do their best to press hard, force Arsenal into a mistake or to go long.
I think that in the situations where Arsenal win the match, they frustrate PSG’s possession game and keep them in areas where Arsenal want them to play while winning the second balls to start their own attacks without PSG able to apply pressure imminently following the turnovers. They will still need something special from one or more of the attackers but with a much healthier front line than last season that seems like a real possibility this time.
In the situations that go PSG's way, I think Arsenal fail to execute their defensive game plan or succumb to mistakes under pressure. Last season, the pivotal goal in the first game came from Arsenal’s rotations in the press being a touch slower than PSG’s fluid buildup. If the team slips up even a little bit PSG have the quality to make you pay for it and if you gift them a chance (like Chelsea did) that can be fatal.
Last season against PSG we probably saw the worst case scenarios play out over both legs. Arsenal in the first leg had a minor mistake get maximum punishment (but probably were lucky to not concede a goal at the very end) while they had their own very presentable chances squandered.
In the second leg, I saw Arsenal play with a sense of urgency and purpose that was at the highest level and they put PSG under more pressure than just about any team had done. It took Gianluigi Donnarumma making some excellent saves to keep the lead and then another sucker punch goal that all but killed things for Arsenal.
Arsenal fans and the wider soccer watching audience I think came away with slightly different views of the overall match.
Arsenal partisans viewed it much more as one that got away with Arsenal playing well enough that they would often come away the winners and it was the bounces that decided it.
Neutrals or PSG partisans I think generally came away viewing that the scoreline reflected that PSG were the better team.
I think that this divergence of opinion remains, with many non-Arsenal fans underestimating them especially with both of last season’s matches in the semi-final being won by PSG.
Looking at the betting odds right now and the consensus points that way right now, PSG are 1.699 to win on Pinnacle which roughly translates to 57-43% odds of winning for each team. I'm not unbiased, but I can't help feeling this is much closer to a true coin flip. Arsenal aren't being given enough credit, and too much weight is being placed on performances from a period when they were dealing with major injury issues.