Viktor Gyökeres: The Debrief

Arsenal finally have bought a striker

This is coming out a bit later than normal because I am just back from a much-needed vacation.

This was a transfer that I didn’t expect to drag out as long as it did once it became clear that Arsenal had made their choice on Gyokeres as their man. That initial update came July 6th and it took another 3 weeks to get over the line. Having just written that, it doesn’t seem that bad but being online while the minutia of the deal was hashed out plus the team leaving for their Asian tour without him made it seem much worse.

The deal is done now, and the player is with the team and could make his debut on Thursday against Tottenham. Let’s dig into the player that Arsenal have signed.

Viktor Gyökeres: The Debrief

Like always we start off with the radars, and distribution charts.

The first thing that jumps out is that he really fills out the important parts that you want to see from a striker. This is one of the most prolific scorers in the World right now, no player has scored more than him over the last two seasons combined.

Sorting by goals scored over the last two years and signing that player is exciting for a fanbase.

Getting a striker re-enforcement was a major need this summer and the team has gone and done it. Let’s break things down a bit more overall on Arsenal’s newest striker.

All stats are per 90 minutes, from time played in the domestic league, they are compared against ‘Big 5’ League players that have played at least 10 90’s, with 60% of the minutes coming in the same position, from 2017/18 to present.

Attacking and Creative Metrics:

0.86 - Non-Penalty Goals, percentile 99.2

0.73 - Non-Penalty xG, percentile 98.4

3.48 - Open Play Shots, percentile 98.2

0.33 - Shots per touch within 25 yards of goal, percentile 26.3

0.16 - xG Per Shot, percentile 78.6

1.02 - Shots in Prime Locations (within 12 yards of goal), percentile 84.0

0.16 - Post Shot xG Added (The difference in xG of a shot and the estimated finishing quality Post Shot xG), percentile 99.1

56.8% - On Target Percentage, percentile 97.7

24.8% - Shot Usage (the percentage of total shots while playing that the player attempted), percentile 88.5

44.9% - xG Usage (the percentage of total xG while playing that the player took the shot from), percentile 98.4

If there is one trait above all others that you want from a striker, it is that he gets lots of shots in good locations. Gyokeres is a guy that for his career that has generated shot volume and especially shot volume inside of the box. There are just few players that have reliably shot more than him over the last few seasons and even fewer that have done it with the same average chance quality and shooting locations.

The other thing that jumps out here is that he is an incredibly accurate shooter. This last season he put 57% of his shots on target, that is an absurd number, and it is probably one that will not repeat going forward but he has shown that he will hit the target more often than average (49% for his career).

Our expectations for the player should not and I believe for most, will not, be for him to repeat this in the Premier League but it is hard to not think wow for what he did in Portugal.

0.22 - Assists, percentile 75.5

0.23 - Open Play xA, percentile 92.4

1.85 - Open Play Key Passes, percentile 95.3

0.69 - Shot Creating Action xG Assisted, percentile 98.2

14.2% - Key Pass Usage (the percentage of key passes while playing that the player assisted), percentile 64.8

3.45 - Passes Completed with 25 yards of goal, percentile 87.3

2.24 - Passes Completed Pass inside the box (includes passes starting in the box), percentile 81.0

0.13 - Crosses Completed within 25 yards of Goal, percentile 42.8

0.77 - Crosses Attempted, percentile 58.1

16.7% - Cross Completion Percentage, percentile 38.8

Creatively what Gyokeres has done has been a bit secondary to him looking for his own shooting opportunity. That is not a bad trait for a striker at all and overall he seems to have solid decision making on when a teammate is in a really good position off of his work and can get him the ball.

Passing and Ball Progression Metrics:

88.6% - Pass Efficiency (actual passing completion divided by the expected completion percentage), percentile 28.6

4.8% - Passing Usage (the percentage of total passes while playing that the player attempted), percentile 13.3

22.4 - Pass Attempts, percentile 32.6

71.4% - Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 49.1

2.7% - Middle 3rd Passing Usage, percentile 1.8

11.4% - Attacking 3rd Passing Usage, percentile 31.7

7.03 - Attacking 3rd Pass Attempts, percentile 8.8

76.8% - Attacking 3rd Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 31.7

1.44 - xG Chain (total xG involved in), percentile 99.2

0.45 - xG Buildup (total xG involved in, excluding the shot and key pass), percentile 90.9

22.3% - xG Buildup Usage (the percentage of total xG while on the field that he participated in the buildup to), percentile 74.6

2.68 - Long Pass Attempts, percentile 70.3

44.1% - Long Pass Completion Percentage, percentile 22.6

2.20 - Progressive Passes Completed, percentile 58.4

0.91 - Fields Gained (progressive yards through passing and carrying dived by the length of the field), percentile 66.8

Gyokeres is a final third type player. He is not going to be confused with a false nine type that will want to drop in and combine and the passing numbers reflect that.

Carrying, Dribbles, and Receiving Metrics

6.20 - Progressive Carries, percentile 84.6

1.37 - Final Third Entry Carry, percentile 47.2

3.07 - Carries into the box, percentile 99.6

4.31 - Dribbles, Attempted, percentile 85.8

1.92 - Dribbles, Completed, percentile 83.4

1.69 - Dispossessed, percentile 62.0

2.46 - Fouls Suffered, percentile 91.0

One of the traits that really jumps out with Gyokeres in addition to shooting is that he loves to drive with the ball at his feet. This is something that both attackers Arsenal have brought in this summer share. Gyokeres architype carry is receiving in the left channel and being able to drive into the box, he does this over and over and will hunt the ability to get enough space to get a shot off.

10.38 - Touches in the box, percentile 99.8

13.64 - Deep Touches (within 25 yards of goal), percentile 99.8

27.3 - Passes Received, percentile 56.4

11.47 - Progressive Passes Received, percentile 98.6

11.15 - Final Third Entry Passes Received, percentile 99.5

3.61 - Penalty Area Passes Received, percentile 95.6

1.12 - Crosses Received, percentile 76.0

3.03 - Unsuccessful Touches (miscontrolling a pass or a bad touch), percentile 25.9

The receiving stats match again the expectations for the player. He isn’t going to be massively involved in buildup play for a team, but he will be the target for when the play is ready to have the end product.

What else shows up here is the transition plays that he can help be a part of. He lives for being able to run on to balls played long into the channel that he can try to use his speed to beat defenders to and create chaos. There really aren’t many of those players in the Arsenal team right now and that could potentially be a potent weapon for the team to turn to.

1.15 - Aerial, Won, percentile 49.4

50.0% - Aerial Duel%, percentile 84.9

For a player that has his athletic traits and size (6-1½) Gyokeres is poor in the air. With Sporting he hasn’t been a target for a lot of balls that he needs to challenge for really seems to only go in for them when he has a good chance of winning them. He is not the type of striker that wants the long ball to him but rather the long ball into space.

Ball Winning Metrics

1.52 - Possession Adjusted (padj) Defensive Duels, percentile 4.5

0.54 - Padj Tackles Attempted, percentile 3.0

0.33 - Padj Successful Tackles, percentile 6.2

21.6% - Tackle % (Successful Tackles/ Tackles + Fouls Committed), percentile 20.7

38.5% - Drib Past %, percentile 66.3

0.82 - Padj Clearances, percentile 60.9

0.99 - Padj Fouls Committed, percentile 25.1

0.62 - Padj Interceptions, percentile 16.7

3.13 - Padj Ball Recoveries, percentile 44.9

14.31 - Padj Pressures, percentile 48.0

He isn’t a highly active ball winner with Sporting. This is probably a reflection of his importance to the attack and the threat on transition that they would rather have him be ready to run after possession is won back vs him trying to win back possession. This will be something to watch as he plays for Arsenal because it is a sharp departure from Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus who are two of the best pressing forwards in the game.

Final thoughts

Arsenal have signed a striker and that is exciting.

I have been pretty clear that I thought basically all of the options this season had some sort of worry and downside attached to them so that I struggled to make a clear distinction on what my preference was for Arsenal to target.

With Gyokeres there is no denying the video game type numbers that he has put up in the Portuguese League. What there is here is worrying about the translation of those numbers to a tougher League.

The bear case for this transfer is built around that. He has taken an unconventional path to Arsenal so there aren’t easy historical comparable players to help give clues about how this might turn out. There aren’t really enough transfers between the Leagues to really say too much about how the numbers change overall. He has done a lot of his damage against teams that are significantly worse than what he will face in the Premier League on a team that was by relative strength more superior to the opponents than he will have with Arsenal.

One swallow does not make a summer any more than one player translating (or not) doesn’t prove how a player will translate.

The most recent high-profile transfer from Portugal to England is Darwin Nunez from Benfica to Liverpool. He also put up video game numbers in his final season before moving (actually scoring non-penalty goals at a higher rate than Gyokeres) but has been a bit of a disappointment on Merseyside (they would love to move him this summer).

Overall, however his numbers stood up pretty well on the move to Liverpool outside of the goalscoring.

The bull case is that he is just a late bloomer and that he will just bang at Arsenal continuing that he is one of the best pure goal scorers in the World. He has experience in England (albeit in the Championship) so that will not be a culture shock for him and while he will be playing tougher opponents he will be surrounded by better talent as well making that less of an issue.

My median expectation is probably something closer to his numbers in the Champions League.

The spread of outcomes here is larger than what you would want on a player that you are making a significant investment in. That is just also a bit of the reality of the market for high-end strikers right now period, where everyone has some sort of blemish that keeps them from being the obvious go to pick.

The fee isn’t outlandish at £55m + £8.5m and it is combined with a pretty hefty wage at around £225k-£250k a week. That’s not a guaranteed starter money but that is the type of wage that if this doesn’t work out that Arsenal would need to eat quite a bit of it for a while before they could move on from him. If he keeps up anything close to his previous production this will look like a bargain and even if he just hits something closer to his Champions League numbers, it is a solid deal

I still have a lot of questions, unresolved worries, and curiosity about how he can change the dynamics, but I cannot deny that I am excited to see him in the shirt and running around on the pitch..

Welcome, Viktor.