Viktor Gyökeres, the gamble on improving on Nketiah

Fresh rumors for the Swedish International as a potential replacement for Eddie Nketiah at Arsenal

Viktor Gyökeres is a player who got lots of attention at the end of the season, with him exploding in Portugal after a big season in the Championship.

The links slowed down as Sporting set a big price tag at the start of the window but it might be starting to heat back up IF the price is lower than the full release clause.

Caught Offside are reporting that Arsenal are interested and are willing to start conversations at around £55-60m. Sporting for now are saying that they want the full £86m release clause paid but it doesn’t seem like there are a lot of suitors lining up for the player at this price.

I can understand fully why that is.

Gyökeres had phenomenal numbers last season in Portugal.

He scored 29 total goals and 24 non-penalty goals and on top of that, he added 10 assists. He did this from 3.5 shots per 90 and nearly 3 total shots from open play, while clustering the shots in very good locations.

When you are looking for positive signals it doesn’t get much more green light than this.

His final season in the Championship backs this up as well where he was at 3 total and 2.7 from open play.

He wasn’t quite as prolific in the Championship but still showed some positive signs that earned his move to Sporting. When the links first started to appear I had Adam take a look at the film to get a better idea about the player.

It is impressive but it doesn’t answer all of the questions about him. I think one his big conclusions still holds true for me:

The film itself is pretty good, in my view. He’s scoring a ton and assisting quite a bit as well. Sporting are also one of the most talented clubs in their league, and they’re being coached well by a top young candidate for a bigger job.

With this player, I have difficulty shaking the disbelief that so much should have changed between Coventry and Sporting that only now is he worthy of a big English club. And not only that, but he’ll also go for a top-level price, potentially more than Alexander Isak or Dusan Vlahovic, for example.

Is this player worth looking at? I say absolutely. If he was 21 or 22 and doing what he’s doing, maybe you can justify £80m then. But at 25? He better step in and become one of the best players in the side.

Gyökeres is a late bloomer who has taken a different route than normal for a top prospect. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he can’t perform at the level required for Arsenal but it does introduce more uncertainty about his actual quality where he might not live up to the expectations more often than other players with similar numbers.

Only being in the Championship at 24, with good but not elite numbers is a bit of a worry. Destroying the Portuguese League is excellent but he did it for one of the super teams there where he was playing on a team with significantly more talent and how much of his production is affected by that?

There is no perfect way to try and adjust stats that I would be super confident in. My best attempt is to use ELO ratings from Club ELO and use that do a crude adjustment to the Premier League and to account some for the differences in team quality.

Doing this takes a bit of the shine of Gyökeres last season and quite a bit off the season in the Championship.

The numbers are still good but they aren’t quite elite. I would still be comfortable taking a gamble on the upside here, especially given that he does show more than just being a player who gets on the end of things to tap the ball in.

If the price for this transfer bakes in some of this uncertainty I am on board with taking the risk, if not I would worry it could be an expensive mistake.