Way too early Winter Transfer priority setting

Thinking about where should Arsenal focus in the coming window.

It is still just under six weeks until the transfer window opens again but that doesn’t mean that rumors are going to stop. Arsenal have already been linked with players like Ivan Toney and Douglas Luiz with more to come as things get closer.

With that in mind I think it would be good to look at the squad and what areas would make the most sense to look to strengthen.

Overall, Arsenal are still a team with an excellent breakdown of players in their prime or just entering it. The overall transfer business up to this point hasn’t been perfect but it has left the team in a strong spot to have flexibility and the freedom to take advantage should any items pop up for them.

This doesn’t mean things are perfect, but all reporting Arsenal are probably still limited on the amount that they can spend without selling, exactly how much is unknown but almost certainly to the point where it is a real constraint.

In this post, I don’t want to get into what players Arsenal should consider (Adam is better at creating those short lists) but rather what parts of the field they should make the priority, with it being low, medium, or high.

Goalkeeper

Arsenal are in a position where they have two strong keepers and if there is a spot to make a BIG sale this might be the position where that happens. David Raya has come in and basically taken the number one spot.

I know that Mikel Arteta has said that this is still a competition and that Aaron Ramsdale will start the next Premier League match because of the rules on loan players but it still looks like the writing is on the wall for him.

In an ideal world he sticks around until the summer so that a proper number two can be brought in but if the right deal comes in this could be something that funds other items.

If that happens I think Arsenal would still probably stand pat and not add another backup, there would be one match for certain that that player would need to play (Brentford at home), with the possibility of maybe an FA Cup early round or two and after that it could be all Raya.

Priority: low, maybe a chance to sell

Defense

Normally with defense, it would make sense to break these up more by position but with Arsenal and the overlap between all these spots that is a little silly. Right now Arsenal have 6 senior players for these 4 spots. That is an uncomfortable margin. They will have made it to January riding this but it would be great to have at least one more player here.

I know that is what Jurriën Timber is for but in the most optimistic case he is just getting back at the end of the year and that is a big ask for a player coming back from that kind of injury.

I think this is probably the area of the field that Arsenal are the weakest. It looked like perhaps Thomas Partey might help make up some of the numbers but he has also shown that he is still not trustworthy enough to stay fit to help with the depth.

Priority: High

Midfield

On paper, this is probably the part of the pitch where Arsenal have the most players that can cover the three spots that they have.

At the defensive role, Arsenal have Declan Rice, Partey, and Jorginho.

At the left midfield role, Arsenal have Kai Havertz, Rice, Fabio Vieira, Emile Smith Rowe, and in a real pinch maybe even Leandro Trossard.

At the right midfield role, Arsenal have Martin Odegaard, Havertz, and Vieira.

To top it all off they also have the ever-present Mohamed Elneny.

The numbers for this position are plenty but this is also probably the part of the pitch that if they needed to make some sales to fund a purchase, where Arsenal might have players that teams could be interested in. It probably would be selling from a position of weakness and limiting the proceeds but Smith Rowe and Vieira would probably still attract interest from teams and could be at the end of their run with neither having taken the chance to grab more minutes in the absence of Granit Xhaka.

With that happening and with Havertz not looking like a slam dunk purchase, this could be the area with the highest chance for making a marginal impact this year.

Priority: Medium-high if the sale to fund a purchase comes from this group

Forwards

I am very happy with the players that Arsenal have in the front line. I think Arsenal have two of the best young wide players in the world and improving on them would be near impossible, and certainly not something that is realistic in the winter window. At Striker, I think they have a player that fits the team really well even if he has a flaw (finishing) that limits him from being one of the truly elite players.

They even have some nice high-quality depth in Trossard and Eddie Nketiah (even if he is a lightning rod of a player).

That being said there is a hole here and it is on the right wing. I think it might be less bad than others with Jesus and Havertz, or even Reiss Nelson having the ability to cover that space if needed.

Overall this group might be a player short but this is also an area of the field where buying in winter is hard and perhaps impractical unless the right deal presents itself (like Trossard last season).

Priority: Medium-Low

So I think that is my list. There are a few players that I am okay with losing but with the aim of getting another player at the back, then midfield, and then probably the forward line.

If I am off, let me know in the comments section.

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Brentford will be tough

Brentford always pose a unique and difficult test, they are probably the toughest team to face outside of the big rich teams. They always seem well coached and well prepared and ready to cause problems for you.

Looking at them compared to Arsenal style wise and the difference is pretty stark.

Against Arsenal, I expect that they will play a direct style looking to get the ball up the field quickly. They have not been a crazy deep block team but they have played generally fairly low and looked to transition to create scoring chances.

Looking at both team’s it is a bit stark how close the teams are. Arsenal have scored more goals, but are doing so from less expected goals.

Arsenal have more territorial control but that hasn’t put them in a significant lead here at turning that into shots. One of the things that sticks out here is that both teams are amongst the best at generating shots and goals from set plays.

The defensive matchup looks closer than you’d expect too.

Brentford are above average but certainly not at the same level as Arsenal (where they are really only rivaled by Manchester City).

With so many players coming back from the international break, this will be a stern test for the club.

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Matchweek 13 Simulated Odds

Things kickoff big this weekend with a top of the table clash.

These are the two best teams in my model and it will be a BIG test if Liverpool are actually back to being title contenders.

With how open and fragile Manchester City looked against Chelsea there could be an opening here for Liverpool to attack them, but they also look like they could ripe for being attacked as well.

I expect Pep to go into control mode and not get into a basketball game but I also thought would be his plan for Chelsea and that didn’t work out so well. Regardless of who it is that wins or draws, something positive for Arsenal will come from this match, so it is nice to be in a no-lose situation.

7am (3pm) kickoffs:

It is a full slate of games here at the traditional time. The pick of the bunch is Chelsea vs Newcastle match. This is a good look at clubs who look like they may be moving in different directions at the moment.

A trip to Brentford is never easy, it is harder with players coming back from all over the world due to an international break. Hopefully Saturday ends with all 3 points.

Sunday

Another matchup of two teams that are hard to peg right now. Both teams have looked good beating up on bad teams and this will be a good test for them. Spurs look to be heavier favorites than expected here with the massive home/away splits that Asont Villa have shown.

What will happen with Everton and the response that they will have to getting a 10 point deduction and being thrown into legal trouble? Can Manchester United look like anything more than a mediocre team?

Lots of questions here, hopefully, some more clarification at full time.

Monday

A perfect game to throw on at lunchtime a wok after a long holiday weekend. I don’t have big stakes in it but both of these teams have played some entertaining matches this year. Hopefully they can continue that trend.

Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving who celebrated and that the weekend is just as good.

🤠