What is Jesus future role at Arsenal?

A player with more questions than answers that might dominate the summer discussion

He Changed Our World

This was Mikel Arteta on Gabriel Jesus in September, and I don’t think at that time there would have been many fans who disagreed with this sentiment.

Arsenal had previously run out of gas fighting for the final Champions League spot and had a bright future with a young core, the ambition and expectation for most was that they would take the next step and look to finally break back into the top European competition and continue the upward trajectory.

Instead with Jesus at his effervescent best, Arsenal went and put up a 50-point first-half season playing some of the best soccer regularly the club had seen in nearly a decade.

The addition of Jesus was a major part of that. He was an all-action player, acting as a pest in the box, generating shots, and bringing in teammates. He was living up to his reputation as the best pressing forward in the World as Arsenal blitzed teams. On top of that his ability and willingness to swap with the other forwards and drop deep added dynamism and unpredictability to the team.

Jesus with Arsenal in the first half or 2022 put up impressive numbers that could rival any top forward

This all came to a sudden halt (with a big chunk of Arsenal’s realistic chances of winning the league) when he seriously hurt his knee playing for Brazil in the World Cup. Since that injury, he has looked far from his best and the reporting plus his own comments suggest that he is still dealing with the after-effects. Here is what he said ahead of Arsenal playing against Bayern Munich:

"Sometimes I feel it (in my knee), I don't remember the last day I played football without pain. Unfortunately, I've been having some problems and people don't always see that. But mentally, I try to be strong in my mind."

The injuries have had a clear effect on his impact and overall performance. There are still flashes of the potential World Class player here but they are just that, moments rather than a player that was a handful for a defense for 90 minutes.

This has also coincided with Kai Havertz's emergence as a genuine option as the focal point of the attack for Arsenal. Havertz playing as a forward has been a very good player and has unlocked things in a similar way that Jesus did at the beginning of last season.

This gets us to the crux of the post today, what can and should Arsenal do with Jesus moving forward?

James McNicholas in The Athletic reports that Arsenal would be willing to listen to offers on the player.

Until recently, it had seemed a certainty Arsenal would add a new center-forward this summer. Havertz’s form and growing need in other areas have led to their priorities shifting somewhat. They remain interested in acquiring a new attacker, and would be open to selling Eddie Nketiah — or potentially even Jesus — to facilitate that.

I was thinking about this as well earlier in the week and putting players into very scientific buckets for how open I would be should I have any power over these decisions. My thoughts matched Arsenal here.

I love the player but there are doubts about him now. I am not pushing him out the door but if a good offer comes in, you’re not hanging up the call.

It does seem like from Jesus’s side he isn’t agitating for a move with The Sun (YMMV on how trustworthy it is) saying that he “has no intention of leaving, ready to put in the work to regain his place in the starting XI.”

What would a good enough deal look like

Because I don’t think the club is desperate to move him, with more obvious players lower on the depth chart that will go, Arsenal shouldn’t be offering a big discount on the player but they also can’t ask for too much if they are actually interested in the possibility of reaching a deal.

Even having a down season, Jesus is putting up strong numbers and has a comparable players list that is stocked with players that would draw interest from teams.

This suggests that even in his diminished state this year he still is a very useful player. The average Transfermarkt value for these players plus Jesus is €50m or £43m (it is also crazy that Transfermarkt is actually used to help set prices in the transfer market). My gut price is that I think Arsenal would want to get at least what they paid Manchester City and maybe a touch more, that was reportedly £45m so I think right now that seems to be in line.

It is hard to know for certain the actual book value (bonuses and the genal opacity of transactions) of a player but after two years Jesus is probably now on Arsenal’s books for £27m range. That leaves Arsenal in a situation to book a profit on him but probably also does limit how much Arsenal would drop on their asking price.

I would guess that Arsenal would be out there asking for £55-60m but would probably be willing to take £40-45m.

Would there be takers though? I think that this is probably the hardest problem.

If the roles were reversed and Arsenal were chasing a player like Jesus, what would we be thinking? I think I would be happy about the level of player but the big red flag is the same as the reason that Arsenal are willing to listen to offers about him.

With Arsenal having the most information about his injury and how it can potentially affect his future performance, as a buyer I would be even more concerned about it.

One of the worries for Jesus coming to Arsenal was the injury and availability history for him and it hasn’t gotten much better.

He has had several injuries that would make me nervous and did already when he came to Arsenal. The knee injuries and the reoccurring hamstring strains probably should have worried me more. His time missed wasn’t that bad but it is also covered up some by how much City were able to limit his minutes, with him never being an every-match player for them.

He eclipsed 60% of League minutes played once, with 2,000+ League minutes just twice, and never started more than 22 matches (he did play in 29, 29, 34, 29, and 28 total).

With Arsenal, the plan looks to have him take on a larger share of the available minutes but in the two seasons so far he has played in just 39% of the available League minutes, and 49% of the total minutes in all competitions.

I think all of this above will limit the potential market for him. The clubs that can afford his wages and pay a fee for him would probably be scared away from taking the chance on this injury record without a bigger discount that doesn’t make sense from Arsenal’s perspective.

Where does this leave us?

I think all of this boils down to the player will probably stay at Arsenal. I can’t say for certain that there isn’t a club out there in Europe or Saudi Arabia (if he is open to it) that would be willing to meet the price, I just don’t think it is particularly likely.

With Arsenal, I think there is still a role for him. His versatility and his performance, especially if he is able to take the summer to get his knee into a better place, can still be at a very high level. He is comfortable at any of the spots in the front line and fits in well with my theory of the team trying to limit their dependency on as many single players to still maintain a high level of play.

I think Havertz has been excellent with his time as a forward, he has simply just been a good player for Arsenal since November adding value as a midfielder and a forward for Arsenal.

This has been a blessing for Arsenal because his has come at the same time that Jesus has been dealing with his most recent injuries. This also gives a blueprint for how things can go for next season should Jesus still be with Arsenal.

The player that plays as the striker can be a rotating cast of players. Whoever is in form, whoever matches up with the opponent and style that is required, and whoever needs a break can all be factors on the call that Arteta makes when setting his lineup.

I think the short-term future for Jesus is still at Arsenal, and that there is a pretty big role for him, it has just changed a lot in the last 18 months.