What to make of Arsenal's CL League draw

Too tough? Cakewalk? Somewhere in between?

The new Champions League format is here, and Arsenal have their first-ever eight-game slate that will determine if they’ll be one of the eight clubs going straight through to the last 16, one of the 16 clubs playing off for that right, or one of the eight lowly sides kicked out of the league phase quickly.

The new draw system seemed to a bit of confusion Thursday, but it was fun to watch and think about the possibilities. While we found out Arsenal’s eight opponents, we won’t know the full order until this weekend, and we can then fuss about the Tottenham and Manchester City fixtures in September.

How should we feel about Arsenal’s draw? Here’s a quick hit on each of the eight clubs the Gunners will face:

Pot 1 Home - Paris St. Germain

PSG are in their first year of the post-Mbappe era, and while it’s very early, it’s going well so far.

Manager Luis Enrique has leaned fully into a new youth movement for the Parisians, starting names like Warren Zaïre-Emery (18), João Neves (19), Ibrahim Mbaye (16) and Yoram Zague (18) in his first two league matches.

The latter two seem unlikely to supplant the likes of Nuno Mendes or Bradley Barcola for long-term starts, but it’s interesting to note that this project does seem fully focused on the future. Désiré Doué and Willian Pacho have joined Neves on the incomings list and seem primed to play a lot of minutes alongside usual suspects Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos and Vitinha. PSG spent most of the summer flirting with Victor Osimhen, but are unlikely to sign the Nigerian, opting instead for a CF platoon of Randal Kolo-Muani, Marco Asensio and Gonçalo Ramos, who’s likely out until November.

Enrique will play a 4-3-3 that a focus on good technicians, ball control and verticality. They remain one of, if not the, best side in France despite Mbappe’s exit. But among the pot 1 options, this is one of the more favorable matchups (low bar) for the Emirates.

Pot 1 Away - Inter

Arsenal at the San Siro just feels like something that should happen way more often than it has of late.

Simone Inzaghi’s side are just so incredibly well-drilled and organized, always a tough out. They’re led by Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram, Nicolo Barella, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and a back three of Pavard, Acerbi and Bastoni. Inter’s summer has been relatively muted by “big club” standards, with Mehdi Taremi and keeper Josep Martinez (yet to make a start as of now) as two of their larger signings.

Inter’s 3-5-2, particularly at home, could be a major obstacle for a club like Arsenal, which has struggled at times to play through well-blocked midfields. This match isn’t as tough as a trip to Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, should have a little bit of everything to make it a huge challenge and a highly-watched match. This is probably the most difficult match of the group stage for Arsenal.

Pot 2 Home - Shakhtar Donetsk

This is one of the friendliest parts of the draw, relative to other options available. Arsenal will get the chance to host the fighting Mudryks in London rather than traveling to Kyiv, where they’ve been playing again.

Marino Pušić is the man arranging the side, and while I’m no expert, I can tell you he favors a back four and either a 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 setup. Mykola Matviyenko is a very capable left-footed defender, while Danylo Sikan and Georgiy Sudakov do much of the damage in attack.

No club should be taken lightly, but this or Club Brugge would have presented Arsenal with their best opportunity for a win, and maybe a bit of rotation, which feels huge.

Pot 2 Away - Atalanta

Last season’s Europa League champs are another who should not be taken lightly, and they’re returning most of that squad. It’s likely that Gian Piero Gasperini will have Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere, Éderson and new striker Mateo Retegui at his disposal for the Arsenal match, but injuries have already hurt this side. Both Giorgio Scalvini and Gianluca Scamacca have sustained ACL injuries this summer and are unlikely to be available.

The rest is standard GPG, standard Atalanta - back 3, heavy attack, fun-to-watch football. Atalanta started its season with a win at Lecce but followed that with a 2-1 loss at Torino. They’ll visit Inter this weekend for a major litmus test.

Pot 3 Home - GNK Dinamo Zagreb

OK, now I’d really be lying if I said I was an expert on the Croatian champions.

What I can tell you: They’re off to a great start, 4 wins in 4, and they’re used to being here. Sergej Jakirović’s side made easy work of Qarabağ in the Champions League playoff, winning 5-0 on aggregate behind two goals from right wide attacker Marko Pjaca and two from Sandro Kulenović. Other notables include Martin Baturina, a 21-year-old attacking midfielder and journeyman striker Bruno Petkovic.

Pot 3 Away - Sporting

So many fun angles here. The rematch from two seasons ago, another trip to Portugal, the Gyökeres flirtation.

After nearly leaving for England this summer, Rúben Amorim is back for another campaign at the helm for the defending Portuguese champions. Sporting have so far been extremely unchallenged, winning their first three matches with a +12 GD.

Gyökeres will of course be a main component of this match, and he’s already got 7 goal contributions. But Arsenal should also key in on Pedro Gonçalves, midfield maestro and the man behind the half-way-line goal over Aaron Ramsdale in the Europa League. He’s got 5 G/A so far.

If links are to believed, Arsenal should be intimately familiar with other key components of Amorim’s 3-4-3, with Ousmane Diomande and Gonçalo Inácio still in Lisbon. Gooner Morten Hjulmand is a frequent starter in midfield, former Wolves attacker Francisco Trincão often starts off the right and former Tottenham boy Marcus Edwards appears to be staying as well.

Pot 4 Home - AS Monaco

If I had a French club, this would probably be it. Other Gooners may adopt them because they’re now the home of Folarin Balogun, and you’d imagine the American will want to make a good impression on his return to the Emirates.

Monaco have so far started Breel Embolo as a lone 9 in one game and a dual attack of Embolo-Balogun in the other, so as of now it’s not a certainty whether he would start. Elsewhere in Adi Hütter’s setup, we’re likely to see former PL players like Denis Zakaria, Takumi Minamino and Mohammed Salisu, while my eye will be especially drawn to RB Vanderson and attacking midfielders Eliesse Ben Seghir (19) and Maghnes Akliouche (22). As of writing Monaco had also added former PSV RB/RCB Jordan Teze, a player I like, as well as George Ilenikhena, an up-and-coming 9 from Royal Antwerp.

Pot 4 Away - Girona

Man City south were one of the most-fun teams in La Liga last season … until you realized that they were owned by City Group. They were largely led by Artem Dovbyk and Savio in attack, but one of those is now at Roma and the other…well, you know. Wonderful midfielder Aleix Garcia is also gone, having signed for Bayer Leverkusen.

What’s left behind is Michel, whose name came up for many coaching openings this summer. Girona so far have had a couple of dud-like games to start the new campaign and one very one-sided win over Osasuna. But what this team looks like by the time it hosts Arsenal will be very interesting to see.

They signed once-linked Yaser Asprilla in a deal worth €20m, and he could be key by then. They also signed Donny van de Beek, loaned Pau Lopez from Marseille, Oriol Romeu from Barcelona and Bryan Gil from Spurs. Viktor Tsygankov remains a key player, as does left-back Miguel Gutiérrez.

It may be a little easier than last season would have been, but I would still anticipate a challenge in Girona.

Summary

Arsenal don’t have the toughest or easiest path forward in the Champions League, but this is the biggest of shows after all.

The top 8 will be the goal for Arsenal, since that sends you through to the round of 16 without a two-legged playoff.

Generally speaking, about 15 points should enough to make the top eight. While the away legs are tough, you would like their chances of getting full points in their home matches against the lower three pots, with the PSG match a little more of a question mark. That would leave Arsenal with a few to gather on the road, a difficult but certainly less than impossible feat. All in all, there is enough opportunity to advance, and some bullets dodged in the group stage.