What's the right amount of depth for a team in the Champion's League?
The data suggests that a smaller squad is required than most people think
I have gone through Arsenal position wise already looking at how the depth held up for the season and what we should learn from that.
Today I want to look at how other Champions League teams have actually used their squads over the last few years.
To start things off I did a poll on twitter looking at what fans would expect as the best size of a squad for the minimum usage hitting 1,000 minutes played between the two big competitions.
The people that follow me and were motivated enough to vote are in favor of a big squad. Many people letting me know in the comments that it should be in the 19-22 range for players that hit the 1k minutes range.
I was curious what teams in the Champions League have done over the last few seasons so a pulled the information to get a look.
Overall teams that have been in the Champions League have averaged playing 18 players over 1k minutes. Teams have averaged between 5-8 players at the 70%+ mark, between 10-12 at the 50%+ mark, and 15-17 at the 30%+ mark.
So, teams have been below what most fans seem to think is ideal.
Here is each team’s distribution as a percentage of the total minutes played.
What was really interesting is looking at how the spread looks breaking things down by position.
Goalkeeper:
Most teams have just 1 keeper and he will play the majority of the minutes in the Premier League and the Champions League. There have been three times over the last three seasons (12 total teams) where the backup was called upon to play more than 30% of the minutes.
You want a number 1, and you seem to have roughly a 1/4 chance to be able to get by only using him. In an ideal world your back up keeper doesn’t play much and it is always a tough one to really think about how much you want to invest in a player that you don’t want to use.
Fullbacks:
The average here was 3.1 players hitting the 30% or more barrier and it was between 2-4 with most teams in the 3-4 range for full backs.
Center backs:
The average here was a bit higher at 3.3 players hitting the 30% or more minutes played. There were three times that teams needed just 2 center backs and 6 times where they needed a 4th.
It looks like a team could get away with 6 trusted defenders if they were versatile enough but realistically, they want at least 7 between the group.
Midfield:
This is one that might be hit by different formations but generally this is the area where teams need the most depth. No team used less than 3, with most needing between 4 and 5 players to contribute at least 30% of the minutes played.
Attacking Midfield/Wingers:
This one was a bit surprising for me, most teams only have 3-4 players here, with only Manchester City this season going to 5 players.
I would have thought that given 5 subs and the benefits that come to being a fresh attacker vs a tired defender that you might want an extra player here but it probably depends on if you play with 3 attacking midfielder or just the two wide players that fall into the category or not.
Strikers:
This is a spot where team’s generally have 1-2 players, with only 1 team in the last three season’s using 3 players.
Final thoughts
I think looking at this, managers really seem to favor smaller squads, especially compared to what the general fan consensus is.
This makes sense given that there seems to be real positive returns to being able to keep the same team playing together with only minimal changes from match to match.
I think in an ideal world, a team that is able to keep the key players healthy would like to see the number of players that play a substantial role in the team be in the 15-17 range.
To account for potential injuries, you’d probably want to add a bit to that and maybe be in the 17-19 range of players you would be okay with if needed but also okay keeping them glued to the bench if the team did get the good fortune with injuries and didn’t need to call upon them.
For Arsenal next year, I think you have a core that looks like this:
1 GK
4 Fullbacks
3 Center Backs (Arsenal have fullbacks that can play CB and CB that can play full back)
5 Midfielders
4 Wingers
2 Strikers
That is 19 players and given the versatility in the squad that has lots of coverage around each position should it be needed and offers the ability to mix and match for the opponent, manage injuries, and to rotate when needed.
If everything goes right for Arsenal it would probably look like 1 keeper, 4 fullbacks, 3 center backs, 4 midfielders, 3 wingers and 1 striker that would actually hit the 30%/1,000 minute mark and there are a few players that are upset that they didn’t get the minutes that they wanted but the team had them in reserve if they were needed to be called upon.
Is this the right amount for Arsenal? Too much? Not enough? Let me know in the comments.