Where does Mbappe fit into the Arsenal team? - MAILBAG

Answering your questions

It has been too long since I have looked to get questions from you all and I decided to change that. You all delivered with some very good questions and some that were excellent but probably require a deeper dive and their own posts.

In a theoretical world where we can rent Mbappe for one year how do you line the team up - Craptor on Twitter

I am going to go with the obvious answer and just put Kylian Mbappe on the field.

I don’t think it matters that much where he starts because he is going to end up around the box. More seriously I think the starting position that makes the most sense would be the center forward in most games.

There isn’t a wrong answer for this one and I know there are reports out there that Arsenal (and Liverpool) wouldn’t want to blow up their wage structure to get him but I think that is just nonsense (but perhaps it is true at the level of money that PSG was paying him, reportedly in the €200 million range, which is kind of only the type of thing that a State-sponsored club could do). This is exactly the type of player you do exactly that for, and look to get very creative for how you can make it happen.

Here is what he looks like on the left wing while he has been at PSG:

Here is what he looks like on a forward while he has been at PSG:

I think Mikel Arteta can work with either of these to get the most of his team. Considering that both Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus, whom Mabappe would take minutes from, are both very hard workers off the ball it would still probably just about work to not hurt the team’s out-of-possession style too much either.

This has him ending up at Real Madrid written all over it but it is still fun to dream for little bits.

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The data in this article primarily comes from FBref, if you have been here you probably know already that I find this one of the most valuable tools for looking for answers to many data-related questions quickly, and those who follow me or Adam on Twitter know that we use data from FBref often.

This article is sponsored by FBref and their new Stathead product. Stathead takes the data already on FBref and allows you to easily search for what you want to know - Like which player has the most goals and assists in their age 18-23 seasons? The answer is none other than that Mbappe guy, he might be pretty good (he has more than Messi!)

Stathead is free for a limited time and you don’t need to provide a credit card. Give it a try now.

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Is there any way the "technical level" of a player can be evaluated using stats? A lot of clamoring for KT [Kieran Tierney] at points this season but he seems way more limited than someone like Luke Shaw technically let alone Oleksandr Zinchenko. I was wondering if there was a way to quantify what my eyes are telling me. - DatguyWelbz19 in the Discord

This is something that I have also struggled with and it has pushed me to come up with metrics that I think are better aligned with “technical level” even if it is still on the implied side of things rather than directly measuring.

I think the big ones that I look at are my passing efficiency and turnover efficiency numbers. Both of these look to take a look at comparing a player at completing passes and not losing the ball compared to what the average player would do in the same situations.

I think that both of these stats are highly correlated with players that I think are at a high “technical level” but it is still something that needs to be checked on video as well, as how a team plays can complicate it.

Which premier league teams have points or other key metrics that differ the most from their underlying numbers? (overachieving and underachieving). - jerzgunner on Twitter

The biggest overachievers right now in my opinion are Tottenham, Manchester United, and Liverpool. I think it is in that order as well.

The biggest underachievers are in my opinion Brentford and Chelsea.

For Tottenham, no team has a bigger difference between their actual goal numbers and expected goal numbers. Looking at their match stats by result you can see that there are several results that they have pulled a draw out where it doesn’t look like they have any business doing so on the underlying metrics.

They don’t have any really bad beats (nor any real “lucky wins” either) that has pushed things in a positive direction for them.

Manchester United is a similar story.

They are probably more “lucky” given that they have turned more marginal performance matches into wins rather than draws. They have played a lot of close matches where the xg margin on either side is less than 1 and have come away with 9 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, earning 28 points compared to 23 expected.

Brentford’s results make me happy that I don’t do a lot of sports betting because they have been a team that my model loves but just would have bankrupted me had I backed them in the situations where they looked to have a good chance at getting results.

A lot of this is down to a keeper who is having a stinker of a season. Mark Flekken is already at the top 15 worst goalkeeper shot-stopping seasons for the Premier League in the seasons that FBRef has coverage.

Via Stathead

Losing so many attackers to injury and suspension has just compounded the issue. Lucky for them they are probably at a solid enough footing to not have the variance bite them getting dragged down to the Championship but it certainly make a team that is good sweat.

What stats should I use to win Kai Havertz arguments? - ffg[big fan of stats] in the Discord

How long can Kai Havertz keep getting away with his performances until Arsenal tacticos turn their backs on him? - calgio23 on Twitter

There is no getting away from the Havertz discussion is there (he says picking his own questions)?

For the first part, there is no way to ever WIN an argument with stats in my opinion unless the question is purely factual. Stats will back up arguments that you make but it depends on how the person you are arguing against came to hold their opinion if they will be helpful or not.

Circling back to the second my view on Havertz is mixed.

I was hopeful for Havertz but thought that this was an opportunity to buy low on the upside with a player, Arsenal ended up paying close to full retail in my view. That makes the expectations for the player higher among fans and I think it is fair to say that he has been just okay.

He has been different than Granit Xhaka in the left 8 role for Arsenal. He is not a passer and that is something that took a while for Arsenal to adjust to and he hasn’t had the output in the final third that you would want. What he has provided is excellent out-of-possession impact and a different look that has helped in big games.

One of the things that is still making me hopeful about him is that the trend for his performances is positive. Since the team has made tweaks in the buildup to get Martin Ødegaard deeper and playing with a striker who wants to come deep and rotate more often his numbers look much better.

Is this enough? It depends on the person but I think given the results and place in the table it probably is.

Will it continue? I hope but we will have to wait and see.

Saw a stat recently that said we scored the same amount of goals as last season at this point. How do the underlying numbers look like? azariasblade on Twitter

They look very good!

Arsenal is a touch behind last season for the same fixtures but has closed the gap recently.

The underlying numbers show that this team might be better. Arsenal when compared to the same fixtures has more expected goals, 48 vs 47.9, and have allowed fewer expected goals against, 17.8 vs 24.9.

Looking at just through 24 matches played it is even better, 48 expected goals compared to 44.9 and 17.8 expected goals allowed compared to 23 last year.

Arsenal are at the best level in my view than they have been in a long time.

This team is really good!

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Round 25 Odds

Yee Haw and thanks for reading! Lots of coverage coming for the weekend.