Who is Arsenal’s best draw for the round of eight?

Breaking down and ranking the 7 possibilities

How fun was your Tuesday night?

The correct answer is, of course, no fun at all. And then VERY fun.

That’s right, Arteta has won a European tie, Raya saved some pens, Arsenal defeated a disgusting low block and have made their way to their first Champions League Round of 8 since 2010.

All that stands between them and the CL Semifinal: the French champions, Spanish champions, English Champions, and German champions, among others.

Easy Peasy.

Friday’s draw will be box office, and it will beget box office results. We’re going to see some massive pairings in this quarterfinal, which fees more populated with European giants than some of recent years.

I don’t think any of the teams will be looking at Arsenal as a team they want and for good reason. This is the strongest Arsenal have looked in a long time and they don’t out of place amongst the teams in the quarter-finals at all.

But, which matchup presents the best opportunity for Arsenal to advance? Understanding that THEY WILL ALL BE TOUGH, let’s break them down worst to best options for Arsenal.

7. Manchester City

Listen, it’s technically good for Arsenal that City go through in every competition as late as possible, opening their players to more minutes, and more potential issues staying fit and firing.

Manchester City are Manchester City and they are the defending Champions and betting market favorites for a reason. Spring is their time, historically speaking. And I’d like both them and Arsenal through here and not playing each other.

6. Real Madrid

Would I accept this as the worst matchup? Absolutely. This is Arsenal’s polar opposite in so many ways, but the ones that concern me the most are the club’s complete lack of flappability and their ability to rely on moments of pure individual brilliance. Watch them last season at Anfield or in any of the several recent outings where they’ve taken down English clubs. I know City beat them last season, but no thanks.

There is also just something ineffable about them in the Champions League. This is a stats and rationality-based website but you just can’t look past this team that is immensely talented for sure, but still just finds ways to win even when they probably shouldn’t. They have an AURA and some devil magic that no want would choose to go up against.

5. Atlético Madrid

If anyone can set up to torture Arsenal the way Porto just did over two legs, it’s Diego Simeone’s Atléti.

Atletico have largely ridden solid defense and consistent goalscoring from Antoine Griezmann and Alvaro Morata to get to the round of 8. And of course, there’s Jan Oblak to keep out what shots his side does allow to happen.

Simeone has a reputation for playing a torturous brand of football, but his side this season are also crazy efficient in attack and doesn’t rely on ball pressure. That does feel like it sets up well to play against a club like Arsenal.

4. Paris-St. Germain

This one is pretty simple, and it’s really all about Kylian Mbappé. Ousmane Dembélé hasn’t been scoring but he’s looked handy quite often this season. Otherwise, I’d feel good about Arsenal in the midfield battle here, with names like Zaïre-Emery and Vitinha to contend with. PSG are also a pretty press-happy outfit with less-than-stellar defending this season.

If they play how they’ve played all season, Arsenal would have a good shot here. But MBAPPÉ!

3. Bayern Munich

If fees a little risky to put this club, of all clubs, THIS high.

Bayern have Harry Kane, they can score, but there’s little question about whether this Bayern side could hang with previous editions. This is not the Bayern that Arsenal had matched up against and been embarrassed by previously in the Champions League

Sané hasnt been himself, Eric Dier gets big minutes, Tuchel is a lame-duck manager, and I just don’t think the Bayern midfield has performed very well at all (it is crazy to type it but they do have a hole shaped like João Palhinha in midfield). Lazio gave them real trouble. There’s still talent here, but I’d fancy Arsenal against Tuchel’s men, and the potential for narrative reversal would be sweet.

2. Barcelona

Barca have so many issues with injuries right now, with Pedri, Alejandro Balde, Gavi and De Jong out long term and a list of players missing against Napoli that included several others. Xavi is another lame-duck manager on his way out and one that probably isn’t going out with a win one for the gipper levels of motivation.

Barca are another side that like to press, and I’m not sure they’ve got the midfield heft to stifle Arsenal’s buildup too much. Trips to the Nou Camp are never easy and thankfully this year it wouldn’t be needed to overcome, with the historic stadium going through a major renovation and the significantly less scary Olympic Stadium as the stand-in, but I’d love to see Arsenal make some good memories in a city that has not been kind to the gunners historically.

1. Borussia Dortmund/PSV

Borussia Dortmund aren’t having an especially good season. They managed to get out of the Group of Death despite having one of the worst xG against recorded in the group stage, which even allowing for difficulty still puts them among the less impressive sides to get through.

They’re currently fourth in Germany, but a solid berth behind fifth-placed RB Leipzig in terms of underlying performance. This side feels blasé by BVB standards, relying on names like Hummels, Emre Can, Sabitzer, Reus, Brandt and Füllkrug to get them this far. This is one of the less-good defensive sides in Germany, and while they can attack with some effectiveness, you’d back Arsenal to come through this tie.

***

Pretty much no matter what, Arsenal will face a tall order to get to the semi-finals, that is just the way the Champions League goes at this stage however. But from where I stand, I’m hoping the name drawn against them can do the least to replicate Porto’s tactics, who truly stymied Arsenal time and time again. I guess we’ll know more on Friday.

The betting odds have Arsenal as tied for the second favorite to win this tournament and outside of one and maybe two possibilities Arsenal should have expectations of advancing regardless of who they are drawn against.