Who should make Arsenal's squad?

Trying to project the next three weeks of Arsenal activity

There are currently 34 men in Arsenal’s squad. THIRTY. FOUR.

It seems crazy to actually write this sentence, but as things stand, the club could actually lose 10 players and still have too many mouths to feed. That’s unbelievable! Here’s a fun mental exercise: Let’s say Arsenal did only have 24 players in the squad. Which 9 would you put on the bench this weekend, and who stays in street clothes? Some good players make the latter group either way, don’t they?

It’s been such an exciting summer of action so far, with Havertz, Rice and Timber on the way in and David Raya likely close behind. The vibes are good. But now we turn to the stage that’s likely to prompt the most angry Xeets and diatribes against Edu Gaspar’s fitness for the job: It’s selling season.

Scott and I took a whack back in May at what Arsenal should do with seemingly superfluous players. I’d say we largely did pretty well, check it out if interested!

But now that preseason has ended, we’ve won the biggest game of the season and the lesser Premier League campaign is about to start, it seems like we’ve got a better handle on which players will stay, and which will go. Let’s run through, position by position.

Keepers

Current: Aaron Ramsdale, Matt Turner, Karl Hein, Arthur Okonkwo, Alex Runarsson

Predicted: Aaron Ramsdale, David Raya, Karl Hein

The Raya deal is all but official, projected somewhere around £28 million. An announcement should happen within the next week or so. I wouldn’t be shocked if Hein was on the bench for Nottingham Forest, or even Runarsson, if things don’t come together by about Friday. Where Arsenal will go from there, with a pretty rare level of competition between two keepers, will be fascinating to watch. Among the questions: Who ultimately earns Arteta’s trust? Will Arteta really rotate, or will he ride a hot hand? He wouldn’t actually have a Champions League keeper and a Premier League keeper, would he? That seems like an easy way to anger one of them, at least in my estimation. I wouldn’t be shocked if, whether it’s in 2024 or 2025, we say goodbye to one of these keepers. It will be interesting to see what sort of price would be attainable, since they’re both of a high quality but would also be on a high wage. Stay tuned.

Turner, meanwhile, has a foot out the door. Some have made it extremely well-known that the £7 million base with up to £3 million in add-ons Arsenal will get from Nottingham Forest is simply not acceptable in their eyes, but even as the American number one there’s little market history to suggest a 29-year-old Premier League backup with such little involvement in the side should fetch more than that. Once the window closes at the end of August, we’ll do some more in-depth evals of specific deals.

Okonkwo has been most chatted-about as an outgoing option, and it seems likely he’ll leave either on a loan or a cheaper sale, something around £2-3m or so. Runarsson has been discussed less, but I’m anticipating either a free exit or something less than £1 million, meaning Arsenal will probably eat most of the £1.5m they paid for him.

Defenders

Current: William Saliba, Kieran Tierney, Ben White, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Rob Holding, Cedric Soares, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Nuno Tavares, Oleksandr Zinchenko

Predicted: William Saliba, Ben White, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko

The defensive group might be the area of the squad where the most invasive - and maybe painful - surgery will be needed. It’s so difficult to know on what level you’re supposed to read into Mikel Arteta’s decision to start each of Kiwior, Tomiyasu and Timber at left back this preseason ahead of Kieran Tierney. Tierney did appear frequently, after all, including as a sub in the Community Shield.

But the buzz does still seem to persist that Tierney is available, at the very least. Real Sociedad have approached for a loan, which Arteta apparently doesn’t want to do, but the club remains open to selling if it can get its valuation. KT is another example where fan valuations seem a little fantastical, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the club eventually agree to offload him for something close to the £25m they paid for him in 2019. That does, of course, depend on who actually comes in for him, and when.

There hasn’t been a similar move of a fullback so far this summer, but that amount is comparable to what Aston Villa paid for Lucas Digne, just under what Arsenal paid for Zinchenko in almost an exact replica of their situation, and more than Emerson Royal or Vitaliy Mykolenko joined PL clubs for recently. We won’t try to compare any Chelsea purchases to Tierney unless Chelsea come calling for him, so don’t start.

If Tierney stays, his role will be fascinating to say the least. Will he start a single game? Even in the likelihood that Zinchenko is out for longer than planned, you’d think Timber would have something to say about that. Other than early-round domestic cup matches and maybe two games in the Champions League group stage, I expect few “throw on the bench” games for Arsenal this season.

After Tierney, I’d say the moves become notably less controversial. Few, if any, fans want Cedric to stay. Ditto Rob Holding. You could see Holding staying at the club in one of those mascot-level roles, let’s call it the Elneny, but I do believe he probably ships out to somewhere in England late in the month, for a sum of around £10m. Cedric, to me, feels like another contract termination.

The bigger question will be Nuno Tavares, who clearly has no role at Arsenal moving forward. He hasn’t been involved this preseason, and even save for the U21 Euros, I don’t think he would’ve been. Rumors came out just today that Arsenal want about £12.9m for him (€15m), with clubs like Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen interested. If that’s your buyer pool, I’d predict something a little closer to £10m, with Wolfsburg the more promising suitor.

Midfielders

Current: Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Emile Smith Rowe, Jorginho, Fabio Vieira, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Mohamed Elneny, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice

Predicted: Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Emile Smith Rowe, Jorginho, Fabio Vieira, Mohamed Elneny, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice

Very little to predict here, in my estimation. I’m not predicting an Elneny exodus, but I also don’t think he’ll be involved much, if at all, this season. My only outgoing is Sambi Lokonga, who seems close to rejoining former boss Vincent Kompany for Burnley’s season back in the Premier League, a move I’d love for him. Ideally Arsenal could get an obligatory purchase trigger on any loan from Turf Moor, but I’m not convinced it’s coming.

If permanent money is coming from Burnley, I’d expect it to be somewhere between what they paid for Jordan Beyer (about €15m) and what they paid for Dara O’Shea (€7.8m). Why? That’s just sort of Burnley’s investment comfort zone right now, and while Sambi is still relatively young (23) with some upside, he’s already shown that his ceiling may be lower than hoped when Arsenal first got him for £15m (about €18m). I’m not sure his loan to Crystal Palace really helped. And like Nuno, there’s clearly no place for Sambi in the pecking order, with Rice, Havertz, Trossard, Smith Rowe and Vieira all more likely to start in midfield than him.

With Elneny playing a miniscule role, that gives you essentially 7 players for 3 positions (not including Trossard), which I think is more than enough cover.

Forwards

Current: Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Eddie Nketiah, Nicolas Pepe, Leandro Trossard, Reiss Nelson, Folarin Balogun, Marquinhos

Predicted: Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Eddie Nketiah, Leandro Trossard, Reiss Nelson

Once again, this position group feels pretty easy to predict. Like in midfield, you’ve got at least one extra player to count as cover in Kai Havertz, and you could make an argument for Smith Rowe as potential left wing cover, and Fabio Vieira on the right. That’s at least enough numerically, although many would say it’s not enough qualitatively.

I’m more of the mindset that I do expect Bukayo Saka, as Arsenal’s star, to start 40+ games like such luminaries before him as Lionel Messi, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. If he gets hurt, guess what? Arsenal’s season is probably toast anyway.

One upside of this squad is the option exists of moving Trossard, Nketiah or Havertz into the centre-forward role for a game and playing Gabriel Jesus wide, if Saka needs an hour or so of rest on a Saturday or Sunday, preferably at home and against lesser league competition. But make no mistake: I don’t expect that often.

And of course, there’s always the option of starting Reiss Nelson there, even if he’s a right-footer and prefers the left touchline.

Folarin Balogun is almost certainly gone, with the bigger question being how close Arsenal will come to that £50m rumored asking price. If the suitors remain Inter and Monaco, Arsenal are more likely to end up with about £35m not including add-ons, which could include everything from performance-based cash to favorable sell-on clauses. If a Premier League club steps up, the gap between the offers and the £50m mark would likely shrink, although just which club it is would make a big difference.

Eddie Nketiah remains a popular pick for a sale, and it’s one I simultaneously could see happening and have a hard time seeing. With four years on his deal left to go, Arsenal have a lot of control over Eddie. He’s had a good pre-season, and Arteta likes him. I don’t know that his role is going to be especially big this season, but I do think he’ll feature fairly often off the bench. All of this in mind, and the player still not pushing for the door, makes me think Arsenal’s ask would be too high for most clubs, even in England, with those clubs more likely to aim for Balogun instead. Come summer 2024, with a world-class forward potentially on the club’s shopping list, you could see Eddie asking out and/or Arsenal accepting less to help him get that move and further his career.

Marquinhos is the only other name I’m axing off this list, with his loan to FC Nantes all but sealed. There were reports of a potential £10m purchase option, but those fizzled and it sounds like a straight loan. Some may think of that as a missed opportunity but I wouldn’t, since Nantes have never made a €10m+ purchase anyway. Marquinhos would have to be their best player this season to have any chance of that being triggered, so the bigger hope will be that he catches someone’s eye and finds a buyer next summer, if Arsenal decide not to incorporate him then.

Pepe is, of course, nearing a contract termination, which is an unfortunate but predictable end to his time in London. I really do hope he figures it out in Turkey.

The squad

Predicted: Aaron Ramsdale, David Raya, Karl Hein, William Saliba, Ben White, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Emile Smith Rowe, Jorginho, Fabio Vieira, Mohamed Elneny, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Eddie Nketiah, Leandro Trossard, Reiss Nelson

There’s your squad of 24. It’s more like 22, because Hein and Elneny, but even that feels a little big, doesn’t it?!

My hypothetical bench with this group is something like Raya, Kiwior, Tomi, Timber, ESR, Jorginho, Fabio, Havertz and Trossard. That would leave some real quality (Reiss Nelson, Eddie Nketiah) behind! Although I do think those guys will make plenty of benches and see minutes, both because of injuries and guys like Tomi or ESR or Fabio missing out at times instead.

This is a great “problem” to have, and I said recently on Twitter (I’ll die before I call it X) that this is the depth that reminds me more of what recent City teams have had: quality in depth, moreso than quantity. They’ve had guys like Ake who can play LB, and LCB, or Stones, who can be CB, RB, DM or even LB. Even starters like Bernardo or Foden are more than capable in a couple of spots.

With names like Trossard (LCM, CF, LW), Havertz (L8, R8, CF, RW), Kiwior (LB, CB), Tomiyasu (FB, CB), Rice (LCM, DM) and Timber (FB, CB) able to cover several spots to a high level, I’m definitely hoping Arteta unleashes his inner tinkerer this season, establishing both continuity in partnerships among players and regular rotation, to the extent possible.

What do you think? Where am I off-base? Could there even be another addition to this side? Sound off in the comments!