Transfermarkt reports “transfer balances”, which are indeed negative, and not “net spend”.
The definitions are flipped, therefore the signs are flipped. (NS = Inc - Out = - (Out - Inc) = -TB).
again, sorry for being being pedantic about this, almost to the point of being prickly about it. I really appreciate the work and the usual attention to definitions and proper measurement, so I thought it was an editing mistake. Hope you have a good one and thanks for taking the time to engage.
Re: Newcastle - what's your scouting take on Elliot Anderson? He hasn't strongly stood out when I've watched, but his underlying numbers look great across the board for a 21 year old in the Prem.
Losing Minteh hurts, but I guess they get credit for retaining Bruno and Isak given their PSR situation. Honestly I'd put them lower because I think the Odysseas transfer has *massive* downside for punishment because it's *so obviously fake*. 30 yr old plays 450 minutes and quadruples his transfer value lol.
I agree with most of this, although we have a pretty big divergence on Brentford - I'd put them in the 6-9 range. On Toney, maybe it's less than they wanted, but he's a 28 yr old in the last year of his contract. He feels sub-elite so UCL level clubs didn't get involved. The fee feels good given the situation.
I really like their signings. Their all 18-23 and fit their style perfectly. I really like Van den Berg and think he's good value. I don't have a strong read on Igor, but they've been forward whisperers so (Watkins, Benrahma, Mbuemo, Toney, Wissa for €31 million total). Carvalho might be pricey as an upside swing, but he feels a need and could be a big resale if he hits. The other two are cheap upside swings at positions of need.
IMO they filled needs with the right age range and stylistic fit, got some upside swings at need positions, and should improve this year (discounting Igor's injury) for €25 million net spend. Also could get some credit for retaining Mbuemo this season.
Feels like a more or less fair take on Brentford, I think we mostly diverge on how much we rate the players they bought. Mbeumo wasn't a big target for anyone as I recall, I tried not to credit clubs for keeping players they weren't under pressure to sell at any point. (I do really like Mbeumo).
Yeah that makes sense. I'm definitely not a scout, so I look more at age range, price, profile/fit. And I think team position is important to - eg mid-table clubs safe from regulation and not pushing for UCL should focus on younger profiles w/ resale potential. Hence Brentford higher, loved Brighton. West Ham lower, Wolves lower bc regelation risk swallows sale profits. Liverpool higher, since besides Zubi there wasn't a DM that moves them from UCL to Title Challenger.
Is it just me who feels like we are still short on the midfield? The Rice sending off and Odegaard hobbling I feel we are light there still.
All temporary, at full strength there’s more than enough - Ødegaard, rice, merino, Partey, Jorginho, havertz, two kiddos and even Trossard
The signs for net spend are flipped. If you spend more on incomings than you accrue for your outgoing players, your net spend is positive, not negative (https://swissramble.substack.com/p/transfers-summer-2024-by-club).
Sorry for the pedantic comment, really appreciate your work.
Meh. I'm looking at it as you spend 100m, you make 75m, that's -25m. Poh-tay-toh, poh-tah-toh
haha, you are going against the convention, but fine! thanks for your reply.
transfermarkt does same, fwiw
Transfermarkt reports “transfer balances”, which are indeed negative, and not “net spend”.
The definitions are flipped, therefore the signs are flipped. (NS = Inc - Out = - (Out - Inc) = -TB).
again, sorry for being being pedantic about this, almost to the point of being prickly about it. I really appreciate the work and the usual attention to definitions and proper measurement, so I thought it was an editing mistake. Hope you have a good one and thanks for taking the time to engage.
I think you're just thinking harder about it than I am :D
Haha harder, but not smarter :)
I made them all say Net instead of Net Spend, that fixes it!
Re: Newcastle - what's your scouting take on Elliot Anderson? He hasn't strongly stood out when I've watched, but his underlying numbers look great across the board for a 21 year old in the Prem.
Losing Minteh hurts, but I guess they get credit for retaining Bruno and Isak given their PSR situation. Honestly I'd put them lower because I think the Odysseas transfer has *massive* downside for punishment because it's *so obviously fake*. 30 yr old plays 450 minutes and quadruples his transfer value lol.
I can understand signing him as a lower-table club in general but the idea he's worth what they paid is ludicrous
tbf it's part of the fake Odysseas deal, so the real price is probably £20m (£35m - £15 inflated value).
I agree with most of this, although we have a pretty big divergence on Brentford - I'd put them in the 6-9 range. On Toney, maybe it's less than they wanted, but he's a 28 yr old in the last year of his contract. He feels sub-elite so UCL level clubs didn't get involved. The fee feels good given the situation.
I really like their signings. Their all 18-23 and fit their style perfectly. I really like Van den Berg and think he's good value. I don't have a strong read on Igor, but they've been forward whisperers so (Watkins, Benrahma, Mbuemo, Toney, Wissa for €31 million total). Carvalho might be pricey as an upside swing, but he feels a need and could be a big resale if he hits. The other two are cheap upside swings at positions of need.
IMO they filled needs with the right age range and stylistic fit, got some upside swings at need positions, and should improve this year (discounting Igor's injury) for €25 million net spend. Also could get some credit for retaining Mbuemo this season.
Feels like a more or less fair take on Brentford, I think we mostly diverge on how much we rate the players they bought. Mbeumo wasn't a big target for anyone as I recall, I tried not to credit clubs for keeping players they weren't under pressure to sell at any point. (I do really like Mbeumo).
Yeah that makes sense. I'm definitely not a scout, so I look more at age range, price, profile/fit. And I think team position is important to - eg mid-table clubs safe from regulation and not pushing for UCL should focus on younger profiles w/ resale potential. Hence Brentford higher, loved Brighton. West Ham lower, Wolves lower bc regelation risk swallows sale profits. Liverpool higher, since besides Zubi there wasn't a DM that moves them from UCL to Title Challenger.