Why I don't see Arsenal making a big DM play

There's a major roadblock to an Arsenal splash at the 6

There’s little question whether Arsenal should be readying themselves for a coming change at the number 6 position, also known as everything from the base of their midfield to defensive midfielder or single pivot.

Thomas Partey will turn 30 over the summer and has a contract that expires in 2025, giving him two seasons after this one. At age 32, given the club’s recent issues extending Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Mesut Özil, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where they’d extend Partey’s contract. Mohamed Elneny’s contract can expire as soon as this summer, meanwhile, and Albert Sambi Lokonga seems out of his depth in a single pivot.

It stands to reason, then, that Arsenal should be after defensive midfielders. Specifically, midfielders who can win the ball back, control the tempo of the game, resist the press, play line-breaking passes and thwart opponents’ counterattacks when Arsenal’s forwards lose the ball.

That unsurprisingly leads many fans to one name: Declan Rice. The West Ham man and English national team regular fits many/most/all of the criteria above, and the London club are quickly losing their hold on him, with his contract running down and attempts at an extension so far falling on deaf ears.

It’s all lining up, then, right? Well, I don’t think so. Let me tell you why.

Under Mikel Arteta and Edu, Arsenal have spent the past three seasons cutting Arsenal’s annual wage bill from around £157m to just over half that, around £87m. They’ve replaced Özil with Martin Ødegaard, on just over a third of the former’s wage. Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette, on around £450k per week, have been replaced by Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah at a fraction of that cost.

Graphic by The Sun

With wages slashed and the core’s age dramatically lower, there are two ways Arsenal could go under KSE: 1) run it back and try again for big names in their prime or 2) use the space to keep the core in tact and go for high-upside names who can raise the floor today and the ceiling long-term.

Although Gabriel Jesus probably gravitates toward that first option, having cost £45 million up front and £250,000-plus per week, I believe Arsenal will operate under the second principle. Here’s why.

As has been incredibly well covered, Arsenal’s current squad is very, very young. And aside from Jesus, only Ben White, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Kieran Tierney are players in their early-to-mid 20s confirmed as receiving more than £100,000 per week.

One of Arsenal’s bigger current projects is extending three of their current cornerstones, Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and William Saliba. Those three make a combined £160,000 per week, more than half of it from Martinelli.

It’s reasonable, in my view, to expect that number to nearly triple by this summer. Then there’s Ødegaard, a 2025 expiring, who’ll likely get an extension and raise pretty soon, and others could get more for good performance as well.

What this all means is the wage bill is going back up again soon, and Arsenal will want to be careful about creating a setup where a relatively unaccomplished - although massively skilled - player breaks their glass ceiling on wages.

How much would Declan Rice cost on a weekly wage? I’d suggest close to £200,000 per week at a start. Look at similar big moves for midfielders in England - Bruno Guimaraes, Kalvin Phillips, Mateo Kovacic, Tanguy Ndombele - and you get a bar around £150,000 per week. And I do think Rice has more appeal than them.

Add in the likelihood that Chelsea and Manchester United could be in on Rice, and the salary demands will get inflated. But even at £200,000 per week, it’s hard to see. Arsenal would be paying 20% or more of their wages to two players who largely play the same role.

Arsenal have fallen apart when Thomas Partey has gone down - repeatedly - with injury over the past two seasons. But would they spend £120 million in wages and transfer fees to cover for him? And would a player of Rice’s stature, who could just as easily take N’Golo Kante’s place at Chelsea, really go for a role where he’s sharing time with Granit Xhaka and Thomas Partey? Consider me skeptical.

And before anyone goes there, no I’m not saying I don’t believe Arsenal has an attractive project, or that the club has pull. They do. But until the season ends, they still haven’t been to the Champions League in six seasons. And even if they make it, that’ll be one in seven.

Mikel Arteta’s project is an incredibly exciting one, and one that could be making the leap before our eyes. But unless the Kroenke family changes the way it does business, I think you may continue to see names like Danilo and Mudryk bandied about, not Rice and Leão.

If Danilo doesn’t pan out, for example, they’ve wasted maybe £30 million in all on him, and would have the chance to make another big splash for a DM in 2025. And there will be another great DM then, whether it’s Moises Caicedo, or Lesley Ugochukwu, or someone we’ve never heard of. Or maybe they’ll just move to Charlie Patino.

But who knows, I could be wrong. And that’d be fun.